2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook and Preparedness

Date: October 26, 2024

Purpose: To provide a summary of early predictions for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season and offer recommendations for preparedness based on current information.

Key Themes:

• Hurricane Season Timing: The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1st to November 30th. However, storms can and have developed outside of these dates. The eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 to November 30, while the central Pacific season (including Hawaii) runs June 1 through November 30.
• Early Predictions for 2025: Initial outlooks suggest an average to slightly above-average hurricane season in the Atlantic. However, experts caution that early predictions are subject to change.
• "Looking ahead to the 2025 season, early outlooks from various weather organizations suggest an average to slightly above-average season. However, experts caution that early predictions are prone to errors." - Fox Weather
• ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) Influence: ENSO is a critical factor influencing hurricane activity.
• Currently in a waning La Niña phase (late 2024), expected to transition to a neutral state in 2025.
• Neutral ENSO years have historically produced a wide range of hurricane activity.
• "Historically, neutral ENSO years have produced a range of hurricane activity, from a below-average number of cyclones to well above-average seasons, depending on variables such as sea surface temperatures, wind patterns and other atmospheric factors." - Fox Weather
• According to research from Florida State University, the Florida Peninsula and the Gulf Coast are especially affected during neutral ENSO years.
• Sea Surface Temperatures: Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, could contribute to increased tropical development.
• "The Caribbean is already warm enough to sustain tropical activity... The Gulf is several degrees warmer than average for this time of the year, and if sustained for several months, that could lead to more development." - Weather.com
• Importance of Early Preparation: The documents stress that preparing now is crucial, not waiting until a storm is imminent.

Key Facts and Ideas:

• 2024 Season Recap: The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season had 18 named storms, including 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. This is considered an active year, but below expectations of early forecasts.
• An average season produces 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes with an ACE value of around 122.
• Pre-Season Storms: Storms can and do form before the official June 1st start date. Examples cited: Tropical Storm Arlene (2023), Tropical Storm Bonnie (2016), Hurricane Alex (2016), Tropical Storm Beryl (2012).
• "Many recent years have had storms develop before June 1, the official start of hurricane season." - Weather.com
• Hurricane Names: The naming list for the 2025 season is provided, with Andrea being the first name. Dexter replaces Dorian on the list.
• "The first named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Andrea, followed by Barry, Chantal and Dexter. The name Dexter replaces Dorian, which was retired after the 2019 season." - Fox Weather