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The Fourth Turning Is Here

What the Seasons of History Tell Us about How and When This Crisis Will End

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The Fourth Turning Is Here

Auteur(s): Neil Howe
Narrateur(s): Neil Howe
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À propos de cet audio

 The visionary behind the bestselling phenomenon The Fourth Turning looks once again to America’s past to predict our future in this “riveting and revelatory” (Tony Robbins) prophecy for how our present era of unrest will resolve over the next ten years—and what our lives will look like afterward.

Thirty years ago, Neil Howe and the late William Strauss dazzled the world with a provocative new theory of American history. Looking back at the last 500 years, they’d uncovered a distinct pattern: modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting roughly eighty to one hundred years, the length of a long human life, with each cycle composed of four eras—or “turnings”—that always arrive in the same order and each last about twenty years. The last of these eras—the fourth turning—was always the most perilous, a period of civic upheaval and national mobilization as traumatic and transformative as the New Deal and World War II, the Civil War, or the American Revolution.

Now, right on schedule, our own fourth turning has arrived…and Neil Howe has returned with an extraordinary new prediction. What we see all around us—the polarization, the growing threat of civil conflict and global war—will culminate by the early 2030s in a climax that poses great danger and yet also holds great promise, perhaps even bringing on America’s next golden age. Every generation alive today will play a vital role in determining how this crisis is resolved, for good or ill.

“Big history and bold futurology” (The Wall Street Journal), The Fourth Turning Is Here takes us deep into the collective personality of each living generation to make sense of our current crisis. explore how all of us will be differently affected by the political, social, and economic challenges we’ll face in the decade to come, and reveal how our country, our communities, and our families can best prepare to meet these challenges ahead. Amériques Politique Sciences politiques États-Unis Histoire américaine Libéralisme Guerre Capitalisme Socialisme Disparités économiques Fiscalité

Ce que les critiques en disent

“There is always profit in reading prophets…. The Fourth Turning Is Here is big history and bold futurology.”
—The Wall Street Journal
“Riveting and revelatory.... A road map to a future that's challenging yet also full of hope.”
—Tony Robbins, New York Times bestselling author of Life Force
“The most difficult thing in the world is to see history as we are living it, and no one does that with clearer eyes and a fuller heart than Neil Howe. The Fourth Turning is Here is a tour de force.”
—Ben Hunt, creator of Epsilon Theory
“Neil Howe always sees things about America that other observers miss, harnessing a remarkable command of history and demography to help us think more clearly about current problems and summoning a remarkable imagination to help us envision the big changes ahead.”
—Nicholas Eberstadt, political economist at the American Enterprise Institute
“Driven by a deep sense that American democracy is at serious risk… [yet Howe predicts that] out of today’s polarization and partisanship will come a new egalitarian, outward-facing, confident and unified America.”
—Francis Fukuyama, The New York Times
“A vitally important book.”
—Michael J. Meese, PHD, brigadier general, US Army (retired)
“Neil Howe is a genuis at mapping the present and future. This book explains how we arrived at today's era of crises, polarization, and conflicts. Fortunately, Howe also shows us the promised land that awaits on the other side.”
—Jack A. Goldstone, Professor of Public Policy, George Mason Univeristy
“Arresting, mind-opening, and endlessly stimulating, The Fourth Turning Is Here is a monumental achievement. It's a big, complex, challenging book, daunting in its sweep and erudition, but well worth the effort.”
—Amy Chua, Yale Law Professor and New York Times bestselling author of Political Tribes
“The riveting follow-up to The Fourth Turning…. All readers should enjoy this wild ride by an entertaining writer who seems to have read every relevant source. A fascinating work of global history and look to the future.”
—Kirkus Reviews (starred review)
“Far-ranging [and] intriguing.”
—Publishers Weekly
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Les plus pertinents
The historical analysis and commonalities described in this book made this millennial feel much more at ease about my place in history.

Fantastic

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it was very informative and researched well from what i heard. it was very eye opening as well. many would benefit from listening to this book, so they can prepare for what might come in the near and distant future.

very informative

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Like the current history and predictions, didn’t like the time spent on historical events that took place over 250 years ago

Speculating on the future and giving a history lesson

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Though the main thesis of the author is solid, and though I enjoyed previous books they wrote, this one has an element of TDS that resonates throughout a large part of the book, and which takes away from the objective voice it’s supposedly written with.

From oversimplification of geopolitical dynamics to domestic political bias - the author misses the mark on a multitude of important aspects.
Detracts from the quality of this piece very much, for me.

Almost good

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I have been a fan of Neil’s work since I was turned onto to him at the start of the Pandemic.

My only critique and frustration with this work and Neil’s reliance on establishment polling that most would call irrelevant/biased and until now that frustration is bursting at the seams has not portrayed public sentiment accurately.

Very Informative, very detailed, very compelling

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Not required reading if you read The Forth Turning. Okay for intellectual types but time would be better spent on other works. His original work makes sense and is very much a reflection of what is happening.

Got the message from the Forth Turning

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Any real history fan will come away from this book thinking it lacks any real analysis. Author states something is the case, or what people thought, felt at a particular time without providing any questions or really direct sources to provide support. Looks at events only in contexts that supports his arguments rather than at the larger, far more complex situations they are. There are reasons typically historical events cannot be summed up in a few paragraphs or a chapter. You need to look at many factors, and provide supportand this often leads to books or series themselves.

Yes many things can be cyclical. Hard times make tough people. Tough people eventually lead to easier times that make softer people that then have to become hard when hard times come. When plenty is available people are happy. When it's not discord happens. The authors premise isn't really unique it's more just using weak historical analysis to discuss this pattern.

Author regularly casually discusses the work of others in various fields without critiquing their work and assuming you know about it, and assume it's accurate.

Weak historical analysis to describe the future

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