Thinking in Bets
Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
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Narrateur(s):
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Annie Duke
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Auteur(s):
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Annie Duke
À propos de cet audio
Wall Street Journal bestseller!
Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result.
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a handing off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted, and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?
Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?
Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values, and even rewards, the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.
By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.
Includes a bonus PDF of charts and graphs.
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.
©2018 Annie Duke (P)2018 Penguin AudioVous pourriez aussi aimer...
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- Version intégrale
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Au global5 out of 5 stars 43
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Au global4.5 out of 5 stars 858
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Ce que les critiques en disent
"A big favorite among investors these days."–The New York Times
"A compact guide to probabilistic domains like poker, or venture capital... Recommend for people operating in the real world."–Marc Andreessen
"Duke’s discussion is full of wisdom and also of fun, warmth, humor and humanity. Her sharp, data-driven analysis comes with a large lesson, which is that losers should be willing to forgive themselves: Sometimes the right play just doesn’t work."–Cass Sunstein, co-author of Nudge
Ce que les auditeurs disent de Thinking in Bets
Moyenne des évaluations de clientsÉvaluations – Cliquez sur les onglets pour changer la source des évaluations.
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Au global4 out of 5 stars
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Performance4 out of 5 stars
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Histoire4 out of 5 stars
- Desirae Munro
- 2023-06-14
Good overview of decision making strategy
Annie uses her research background and experience as a professor poker player to explain some of the basics behind decision quality as a decision making framework.
She is very clear at the beginning of the book it is not a book about poker — there are many references to the decision process that happens while playing poker, but this is not a poker strategy book. It is a great introduction to the other books and case studies referenced throughout.
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Au global5 out of 5 stars
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Performance4 out of 5 stars
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Histoire5 out of 5 stars
- Holly Simmons
- 2018-09-18
Changed the way I view the way I make decisions
I enjoyed listening to Annie Duke narrate her book on #Audible1. It allowed the nuances of her ideas, research and insights to shine through. I’m new to the concept of probabilistic thinking and found Annie’s stories and descriptions easy to listen to and understand. I especially liked the luck vs skill bias section. Annie provided practical ways to apply the concepts outlined in the book.
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Au global5 out of 5 stars
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Performance5 out of 5 stars
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Histoire5 out of 5 stars
- chas
- 2021-07-14
going to listen again, right away!
this book is awesome. well thought out and easy to digest. voice is nice to listen to as well.
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Au global5 out of 5 stars
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Performance5 out of 5 stars
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Histoire4 out of 5 stars
- Regan
- 2018-12-21
How to to break your personal projected narrative
Great book! Very relatable for anyone. Annie's narration was easy to listen to and best of all remember.
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1 personne a trouvé cela utile
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Au global5 out of 5 stars
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Performance5 out of 5 stars
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Histoire5 out of 5 stars
- Utilisateur anonyme
- 2018-09-18
how to win , and lose like a serious professional
Great book to refer to when you are playing to win, but need to handle inevitable loss...like a winner. Easy to listen to. #Audible1
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Au global5 out of 5 stars
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Performance5 out of 5 stars
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Histoire5 out of 5 stars
- Larry Berman
- 2020-03-31
Not enough stars to award
I've always thought in bets. I manage $B portfolios thinking in bets. The advice in the book is priceless for anyone looking to make more informed and less biased decisions. Can't wait for the next book, Annie!
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Au global5 out of 5 stars
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Performance5 out of 5 stars
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Histoire5 out of 5 stars
- Amazon Customer
- 2020-12-31
Worth a credit
Accessible for those who don’t know anything about poker, and even more relevant and interesting if you’re a player. Thinking in bets in your personal and professional life gives you a new perspective : less about the result, more about the decision itself.
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Au global5 out of 5 stars
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Performance5 out of 5 stars
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Histoire5 out of 5 stars
- Cam
- 2020-08-19
Awesome book
I've listened to it 4 times, just finished. I plan on absorbing it a 5th time. It's up their with the trading classic Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas in how to deal with probabilities, facts, biases, and role of luck. 5 Stars.
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Au global5 out of 5 stars
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Performance3 out of 5 stars
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Histoire5 out of 5 stars
- Utilisateur anonyme
- 2018-09-13
First heading was worth the price
"Life is Poker, not Chess" was a game changer for me. The rest of the book just filled that in.
#Audible1
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Au global4 out of 5 stars
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Performance4 out of 5 stars
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Histoire4 out of 5 stars
- Utilisateur anonyme
- 2020-06-15
Good book
There is a 15 word minimum, dont have too say much its just an interesting book
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2 les gens ont trouvé cela utile