Why are 10-year yields soaring, and how is the market responding?

Mike Arnold of Path Trading Partners returns to the Futures Edge with Jim and Bob to analyze the latest trends in the financial landscape as of January 2025. From the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle and inflationary pressures to the role of rising wages and sticky manufacturing prices, Mike breaks down the technical and fundamental drivers pushing yields higher, with projections of a potential climb above 5%. They explore key indicators like the ISM Prices Paid Index, the CME FedWatch Tool, and the steepening yield curve’s implications for equity markets.The discussion dives into crude oil’s recent breakout, gold’s potential for a powerful rally, and how traders can interpret these moves using back-adjusted charts and technical analysis.

Takeaways:

-10-year yields are rising due to inflation concerns.

-Crude oil prices are influenced by supply and demand dynamics.

-Gold is expected to benefit from inflationary pressures.

-Bitcoin futures analysis requires careful consideration of patterns.

-Nvidia's stock shows potential for a double top pattern.

-Market sentiment can shift rapidly, impacting trading strategies.

-Understanding harmonics can enhance trading decisions.

Chapters:

03:00 Understanding 10-Year Yields

05:06 Inflation and Economic Indicators

07:58 Market Trends and Predictions

10:55 Technical Analysis Insights

13:43 NASDAQ Market Analysis

20:51 Understanding Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis

21:47 Crude Oil Market Dynamics

25:37 Inflation and Demand Influences on Crude Oil

28:12 Gold Market Trends and Predictions

34:14 Bitcoin Futures and Market Analysis

42:27 Stock Market Insights: Nvidia and MicroStrategy