Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work

Auteur(s): Magnificent Noise x Richard Kramer x Will Page
  • Résumé

  • Bubble Trouble features conversations between economist and author Will Page and independent analyst Richard Kramer that lay out some inconvenient truths about how financial markets really work. Like the “boy who cried wolf,” financial markets have a peculiar tendency to repeat past mistakes and get themselves into “bubble trouble.” They party hard, drink too much of the Kool Aid, and wake up with a pounding hangover...only to do the same thing the next day. With tech dominating daily headlines and teenage traders driving stocks to unprecedented valuations, you might be asking “What’s really going on?” “What am I missing?” Imagine having a set of tour guides to tell you the “story behind the story” of the world’s largest tech companies, and how they bend - or break - the rules of economics.

    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

    Copyright Magnificent Noise
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Épisodes
  • The Meltdown of Credit Suisse w/ Duncan Mavin
    Nov 25 2024

    On Bubble Trouble, we are never short of subject matter: from the metaverse, NFTs and Chinese real estate, to Silicon Valley Bank and er… that small issue of a former global powerhouse Credit Suisse. Remember them? Well our guest, Duncan Mavin, knows their story better than anyone, and he’s documented them in the wonderfully titled Meltdown: Scandal, Sleaze and the Collapse of Credit Suisse.


    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)


    Credit Suisse: A Rolling Crisis in Banking Scandals


    In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Will Page and Richard Kramer discuss the collapse of Credit Suisse with journalist and author Duncan Maven. They delve into Maven's book 'Meltdown: Scandal, Sleaze, and the Collapse of Credit Suisse,' exploring the myriad of crises that plagued the bank. They touch on scandals ranging from rogue traders and sanctions busting to laundering Nazi gold and funding corrupt projects in Mozambique. The conversation also highlights the rapid acquisition of Credit Suisse by UBS over a tense and decisive weekend. Duncan Maven provides insights into the bank’s culture, the broader implications for the banking sector, and why people should care about the ethics in banking. The episode concludes with the discussion of warning signs (or smoke signals) that indicate deeper issues within financial institutions.


    00:00 Introduction

    01:00 Part One

    01:09 Guest Introduction: Duncan Maven

    02:31 The Rise and Fall of Credit Suisse

    03:32 The Impact of White Collar Crime

    05:08 Cultural Issues at Credit Suisse

    09:56 Historical Context of Swiss Banking

    15:21 The Mozambique Scandal

    19:49 The Role of Social Media in Credit Suisse's Collapse

    23:00 The Bulgarian Mafia and Credit Suisse Scandal

    23:47 Part Two

    23:54 The Collapse of Credit Suisse

    24:32 UBS Absorbs Credit Suisse

    26:41 The Aftermath and Lingering Scandals

    28:57 The Swiss Financial Crisis

    32:58 The Future of Swiss Banking

    40:05 Reception of the Book

    42:08 Smoke Signals and Final Thoughts

    46:37 Credits



    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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    47 min
  • Fiscal Drag Queen
    Nov 18 2024

    This week, we’re talking taxes. Don’t switch off, don’t fall asleep and please don’t hire an accountant as the next 45 minutes will defy the laws of gravity and make taxes sexy. Or make saxes testy… [Repeat from March, 2024.]


    Mentioned in today’s show: Barbarians at the Gate: https://youtu.be/Z3HiONtjZSM?si=xZ64zb46sYIfSs5Z


    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)


    In this engaging episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page explore the complex world of taxes with humor and depth. They discuss the UK's tax system, the incentives it creates, and its contribution to economic inequalities. The duo delves into the problems of the tax code, including issues surrounding tax avoidance by the wealthy, lack of public sector productivity improvements, and the inefficiencies within the HMRC. Kramer and Page critique the approach of privatizing public utilities and the potential problems with private equity in the public sector. They also touch on broader issues like the lack of investment in tax authority systems and propose using tax policies for positive changes, like encouraging the shift from petrol to electric cars in Denmark. Through their insightful conversation, Kramer and Page aim to demystify taxes and highlight their significant impact on society.


    00:00 Introduction

    00:46 Part One

    00:51 The UK's Budget Week and Tax System Insights

    01:48 Tax Evasion vs. Public Sector Productivity

    02:46 The Inequality of Tax Codes: A Global Issue

    04:03 Tax System Flaws and Their Impact on Society

    07:22 VAT: The Taxpayer as Tax Collector

    11:31 The Complexity of National Insurance

    13:43 Simplifying Tax Systems: A Call for Transparency

    16:28 Private Equity and Tax Systems: A New Challenge

    22:39 Decoding the Fiscal Drag Queen

    23:00 The Political Divide on Taxation

    23:21 Economic Lecture: Tax Burden and Growth

    25:07 The Impact of Fiscal Drag on Tax Bands

    26:15 The Surprising Windfall from Fiscal Drag

    27:22 Part Two

    27:45 Exploring the World of Private Equity

    28:51 The Tax Loopholes Fueling Private Equity

    32:24 The Potential Bubble in Public Utilities

    36:26 The Disconnect Between Tax Policy and Reality

    43:58 A Positive Tax Example from Denmark

    47:28 Credits



    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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    48 min
  • Sonic Shifts: How Tech and Culture are Changing the Music Industry with Mark Mulligan
    Nov 11 2024

    This week we welcome Mark Mulligan of MIDiA Research who has had a ringside seat for years and years of bubbles, be it the creator economy, NFTs or AI music, or just everyone claiming they are gaining market share at the same time. He is the founder and driving force behind the tiny little company that an entire industry looks to as the source of truth.


    For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

    You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

    More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

    (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)


    In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page are joined by Mark Mulligan, a leading music industry analyst and founder of MIDiA Research. They delve into the intricate world of the music industry, discussing the evolution from digital streaming to the rise of new phenomena such as NFTs and AI in music. The trio explores the concept of bifurcation in markets and the distinction between high-end experiences versus bargain deals within the industry. The conversation also touches on the significant cultural shifts, the role of trade associations, and the future of personalized music experiences. Despite the optimism around technology, the hosts remain critical of mainstream narratives, emphasizing the importance of genuine innovation and realistic market assessments. This insightful and provocative discussion is a must-listen for anyone interested in the intersection of music, technology, and finance.


    00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble

    01:02 Welcoming Special Guest Mark Mulligan

    01:26 Mark Mulligan's Background and Insights

    02:34 The Evolution of Music Supply

    04:20 The Democratization of Music Creation

    06:13 AI and the Future of Music

    12:16 Fragmentation and Hyper-Targeting in Media

    13:40 The Role of Superstars and Long Tail Creators

    19:20 Streaming Platforms: Carnivores vs. Herbivores

    25:45 TikTok's Influence on the Music Industry

    27:33 Part Two

    28:38 Diving into the Music Industry's Hype

    30:08 Constructive Criticism in Emerging Technologies

    30:39 The Metaverse and NFTs: A Skeptical View

    31:28 Frameworks for Assessing New Technologies

    33:10 The Future of Digital Fandom

    35:15 Bifurcation in the Market

    43:07 Pendulum Swings in Technology Adoption

    44:54 Lessons from the Aviation Industry

    46:29 Final Thoughts and Predictions

    52:00 Credits



    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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    52 min

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