This week, part two of our continued conversation with Benedict Evans, an analyst with over 175,000 avid readers for his tech blog.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the intricacies of technology bubbles with special guest Benedict Evans. The discussion revolves around AI advancements, particularly focusing on Apple's recent integrations of AI models, the differentiation between small and large models, and the implications for email summarization and other features. They explore the economic and strategic decisions behind Apple's use of AI, the potential for various large language models (LLMs) to disrupt industries like legal tech, and the broader market dynamics and antitrust considerations. The conversation also touches on the challenges and opportunities presented by these technological advancements, emphasizing the importance of careful analysis and skepticism in the face of rapid innovation.

00:03 Introduction

00:29 Part One

00:29 AI and Apple's New Developments

01:53 Apple's AI Integration and Market Dynamics

04:20 The Evolution of AI Models and Market Impact

12:29 Antitrust and Market Strategies

17:34 Cloud Computing and Business Models

24:49 The Future of Cloud Machine Learning Providers

25:36 Marginal Costs in Consumer Internet Companies

26:16 Generative AI and Cost Efficiency

28:14 Part Two

28:14 Legal Tech and Large Language Models

30:05 Challenges in Selling Software to Law Firms

31:08 Error Rates and AI Hallucinations

34:36 Practical Use Cases for AI in Legal Scenarios

36:27 Evaluating AI's Potential and Limitations

41:05 Recognizing Tech Bubbles and Market Hype

44:59 Concluding Thoughts on AI and Market Trends

47:27 Credits

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This week we are talking bubbles - or not! - with Benedict Evans, an analyst with over 175,000 avid readers for his tech blog. We’ve done our level best to reflect on why bubbles happen, but what about calling them out before they burst. “It would have been nice to have known” we were in a bubble before it caused trouble. That wish fits like an OJ Simpson glove into a recent column by Benedict exploring how and when to call them. With AI mania and NVIDIA up 130% this year and 700% in 18 months, lifting many other boats with it, this will be a timely conversation.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the phenomenon of market bubbles with tech analyst Benedict Evans. They discuss the intricacies of identifying bubbles before they burst, explore the role and future implications of Artificial Intelligence (AI), and touch upon how companies disclose crucial data. Benedict shares his career journey and insights on tech market dynamics, providing a detailed perspective on AI's potential impacts and strategic questions surrounding tech advancements. This episode offers a mix of reflective analysis and forward-looking forecasts in the tech landscape.

00:00 Introduction

01:06 Meet Benedict Evans

01:22 Benedict's Career Journey

02:59 The Art of Simplifying Complex Points

07:48 The Role of Public Companies in Market Bubbles

13:01 Tech Industry Cycles and Bubbles

19:56 Part Two

20:13 Generative AI: The Next Big Thing?

36:44 The Future of AI and Its Impact

39:48 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

40:20 Credits

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This week we’re going to split lanes as we’ve got breaking news coming out of Canada that Will’s been knee deep in: soon after their Government tried to regulate Google and Meta news, they’re now after Spotify and Netflix. Think contagion and buckle up - this may well be the sign of the regulatory times. Once we’re done with Canadians, we turn our attention to Cuppertino as we’ve just seen the WWDC wrap up the calendar of set piece marketing - Google, Meta, Microsoft and more - all now done and dusted. It's all become a slick operation, but what’s and not said can help us decipher the narratives of the most watched companies on the planet and these events have now gone mainstream.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist Will Page delve into the recent regulatory developments in Canada targeting streaming giants like Spotify and Netflix following earlier regulation attempts on Google and Meta. They explore the implications of Canada's new gross revenue contribution policy on streaming services and its potential impact on consumers and competitors. Additionally, the duo examines the wrap-up of Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) and discusses the trends, leaks, and undertones of major tech company events, including the strategic presentations, the nuances of unsaid elements, and the ever-tightening grip of technological giants on the market. The episode aims to provide insights into the evolving landscape of tech regulation and market domination.

00:00 Introduction and Overview

00:08 Canadian Regulatory News

01:12 Impact on Streaming Services

01:30 Historical Context of Canadian Regulations

02:24 Current Regulatory Actions and Reactions

07:51 Tech Giants' Marketing Events

08:39 The Magnificent Seven and Market Concentration

10:17 The Role of Marketing in Tech

11:17 The Evolution of Tech Events

18:21 The Importance of Perception in Tech Announcements

21:03 Reading Between the Lines

32:14 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

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