The news that Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown is heading to China today on the country's first state visit, where he's expected to sign a comprehensive strategic partnership with China, has come as news to our Foreign Minister, news to our government, and indeed news to some of the Cook Island people.

The excellent Barbara Dreaver on 1News broke the story on Wednesday night. As she reported, the impending visit has taken the Beehive by surprise, as it's a potential breach of constitutional arrangements between the Cook Islands and Aotearoa New Zealand.

This year the Cook Islands celebrate 60 years of self-governance in free association with New Zealand. That means that they're free to make their own moves on policies and partnerships at home and abroad, while enjoying the benefits of a New Zealand passport and citizenship, plus substantial investment and aid. But with any perks come responsibilities under the long-standing agreement. The nations must cooperate and consult on any issues of defence and security, and they have to advise each other of any risks to either state. And it would appear that the detail of the arrangements has not happened in this particular case, according to Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters, who spoke to Mike Hosking this morning:

“I believe they've got all these other things about beliefs, principles, freedom, human rights – these are fundamentals that the Cook Islands people are also concerned about, as they are around the Pacific. They need to know what's happening here and as a consequence, when they make a decision, then they should be free to make it, but they have to be free to make it in the circumstances of the commitments that we made going back to Helen Clark's time and going back to 1901, where we just discuss and consult, that's where we are now. I can assure you that the New Zealand government has done its best to find out what's going on, and to say this has been discussed with us is absurdly not true.”

So the government's been blindsided, and it appears the Cook Islands people themselves have been blindsided. A protest has been planned on Parliament's first sitting of the year in Rarotonga on February 17th. Some locals told Barbara Dreaver that they fear losing the special relationship they have with New Zealand, and that will happen if the Cooks Prime Minister Mark Brown pushes ahead with his intention for them to have its own passport. New Zealand's ruled out a dual passport arrangement.

1News understands that if the Cook Islands went ahead with its own passport, anyone who applied for a Cook Islands passport would be treated as having renounced their New Zealand one. The Cook Islands, of course, are perfectly free to make their own arrangements, but so too are we. If you want your own passport, that's absolutely fine, but you don't get to have a dual passport arrangement with New Zealand.

They're also perfectly free to trade with China. We do. Brown was adamant the Cook Islands Government could go ahead with its own passport and still stay within the free association with New Zealand. He said the Cook Islands needed more development partners such as China, and the Islands already more than pulled its weight with New Zealand.

Okay, that’s his opinion. But there's two people in a relationship, and clearly Winston Peters and New Zealand feels a bit differently. If New Zealand doesn't think the Cook Islands are operating within the obligations of the agreement, there will be consequences. So they're perfectly free to make their own decisions, and we are perfectly free to respond. If it comes to a bidding war, we will always lose to China. If it comes to who can put more money into the Pacific, it's China, every single time. But when it comes to cultural connectedness, history and family, that's where New Zealand has the advantage.

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Gregor Paul's story in this morning's Herald confirms what many suspected at the time: that TJ Perenara’s political statement before the haka, a rallying cry against the Treaty Principles Bill, had not been sanctioned by rugby officials. That many All Blacks, that many coaching staff, that many management, felt blindsided by the statement and that he spoke without the universal approval of his teammates, according to Gregor Paul’s story.

Perenara was playing his 89th and his final test for the All Blacks in Turin last year, and before the privilege of leading the All Blacks Haka for the final time, he gave a mihi speaking for the land, the strength of independence and the Treaty. Not the most strident political message, but a political message nonetheless. And I have absolutely no problem with people having an opinion on the Treaty Principles Bill —a strong opinion— provided the opinion is sound and nuanced and not filled with hateful, abusive language. You have your opinion for and against it – absolutely fine.

But I do think that TJ Perenara abused his position and abused the trust put in him by his teammates. You cannot lead a team haka if you don't speak for your team. If TJ had been representing New Zealand as an individual, fine. If he gave his opinion on the bill in a post-match interview, fine. But it's a shame that he put his teammates in a position of defending a political stance of his own. They might all agree with him, they might have fully supported his decision in the wording of the mihi, but he never gave them the chance to do so, according to Gregor Paul’s story. And if you cannot have a full, honest, open discussion about the Treaty Principles Bill with the band of brothers that is the All Blacks, what hope does the rest of the country bloody have?

I think it's because if you support David Seymour's bill you run the risk of being called a racist. For the record, I don't support. I made a submission against it, but that doesn't mean I support the hijacking of the haka either.

Although I'm not sure in this day and age the coalition of the perpetually aggrieved allows you to have a nuanced viewpoint. You can't have a ‘oh well, I think this, but I understand where you're coming from, but that's okay’. You just can't do that in this day and age among a certain group of people. Discussions quickly become partisan and reductive. Social media has become so binary – you're either for us or you're against us. The only thing that cohort seems to agree can be nonbinary and fluid is gender. Everything else you have to be one thing or the other, except for your gender. You certainly can't have fluid or nuanced discussions on race or Trump or Gaza or the Treaty Principles Bill. It's a shame.

Perenara is passionate and committed and articulate but clearly on certain subject he feels his way is the only way. And isn't that the problem with the world right now?

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The Government’s shaking up social housing, yesterday announcing a plan to get Kāinga Ora back on track.

They're set to sell off high-priced homes in an effort to bring its books down, the plan including the sale of around 900 homes a year.

The money will then go to more low-cost, denser places with greater demand, as well as more single person dwellings as opposed to larger homes.

Kāinga Ora Board Chair Simon Moutter joined Kerre Woodham to discuss what the changes mean for the agency and for those in need of social housing.

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We know times are tough. We know that we're in a period of rebuilding, we know that there are green shoots starting to come through. We're looking towards the end of 2025 as a time when things will turn around, when things will start to improve, and things will start to get better on a micro level in our own households, and on a macro level when it comes to the government.

But there are still sticky times ahead, and Treasury officials have released a document warning the government that “significant reforms” or “reductions to public services” will be needed in the not-too-distant future if it sticks to its current, restricted spending track. The document on forecast sets out the difficulty the Government will have in keeping to its restrictive level of spending so it can post a surplus and rebuild the Crown balance sheet (this is what a lot of National governments have to do), while also maintaining public services at existing levels.

In a column in the Herald, the writer says it paves the way for a 2026 election campaign which is likely to involve a battle on the issue of taxation and the role higher levels of tax might play in rebuilding the balance sheet without cutting the services. Of course we can become a richer nation, but that will take time. There are only a few ways the government can generate income, and it's mainly by taxing us. It can help businesses become more prosperous, more productive, and then it can clip the ticket on the way through but really, it's pretty limited in how it raises money.

So each party has a very different idea on what a fair taxation system would look like. But right now, the party that actually does have the ability to do something about tax and using it as a way of attracting foreign investment into the country is looking at lowering corporate tax rates and that, of course, would be National as the senior partner in the coalition government. Finance Minister Nicola Willis was talking with Ryan Bridge on Drive last night and she said she was looking at the settings of our company tax rate and the regulations that underpin it.

NW: Well, if you compare New Zealand with the rest of the world, we're not as competitive as we used to be. Which is to say that our corporate tax level is reasonably high when you compare it to the rest of the developed world.

NW: So looking at that, our government says okay well, what could we do to make sure the tax settings in New Zealand are supportive of businesses wanting to invest and grow. Realising that on the other side of that, you have to pay for it. Because if we're taking in less tax then we have to find other ways of getting that money so we can invest in the things that really matter —our public services— and also ensure that we're still on track to get our budget back in balance and reduce debt over time. So, as a government, we need to work through all of those questions. But the honest answer to questions we do need to be more competitive in that area.

RB: So you are looking at changing the corporate tax rate?

NW: Well, there's many different ways we can approach the tax system. One thing is the corporate tax rate, but there are also tax rules that sit underneath that, and I'm actually interested in the detail of the way the whole system works, not just the headline rate.

Yes, well I think we can say that she's looking at the lowering the corporate tax rate. And she's right, it does cost money. If you are going to take in less of the existing pie, then you'll have a reduction in income. But if the pie is bigger and bigger and bigger, you're taking less of a bigger pie, you're still going to end up with more money.

So really the key is driving productivity, driving confidence in our businesses, attracting foreign investment, all of those things that Paul Bloxham was talking about, the HSBC Economist I spoke to last week. He was commenting on the fact that now we are at the bottom 38 out of 38 in terms of performing economies, and he said we need to do all the things that we are doing right now, that this coalition government is doing right now. Attract foreign investment, get the free trade deals going, increase productivity, limit regulations so businesses can do what they do best.

I suppose it's a finely balanced thing. You've got to attract the foreign investment here so therefore you've got to make the corporate tax rate competitive, but when that pie is bigger and growing then we are all better off.

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Possible corporate tax cuts could be on the way in this year's Budget.

Nicola Willis told Ryan Bridge yesterday that our corporate tax system isn't competitive enough with other countries, hinting at potential changes.

Christopher Luxon confirmed to Mike Hosking this morning that they're willing to make changes, and there's a lot of possible options.

Dentons Kensington Swan Tax Partner Bruce Bernacchi told Kerre Woodham that there is an opportunity for New Zealand to bring in increased economic activity by multinationals and other wealthy investors by doing something bold.

He says he’d like to see something a lot more bold than just dropping it down to the OECD average.

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Any day now, counting down the seconds, the kids will be back at school if yours haven't gone already. And this year, maybe, hopefully, fingers crossed, will be the year that our education system gets back on track.

Certainly, Erica Stanford’s bigging up the new focus on structured learning. A press release out from her office says, as schools start back for 2025, there will be a relentless focus on teaching the basics brilliantly so all Kiwi kids grow up the knowledge, skills and competencies needed to grow the New Zealand of the future.

A world leading education system is a key driver to economic growth. Our future playwrights and songwriters need to have a mastery of literacy and numeracy as much as our future mechanical engineers, doctors and electricians, and so on and so forth.

It's kind of a call to arms for teachers and parents from Erica Stanford.

There's also an op-ed piece from a math's and statistics teacher in the Herald this morning, Peter Wills. He says, and he's looking at the failure rates for NCEA Level 1, the news that Kiwi kids did poorly in NCEA comes as no surprise.

Last month, NCEA results came out and we saw that in 2024 30% of students failed Level 1, slightly under a third of our kids could not pass basic numeracy and literacy tests associated with NECA Level 1. That was this 18% in 2023. Erica Stanford said the results were expected, that there’d be a high proportion of students who would not pass because they were putting in minimum standards.

Now most countries we compare ourselves to - United Kingdom, Ireland, Singapore, the US and Australia all have numeracy and literacy tests and these have been introduced because we know it's bad, but we need know how bad it is. 30% couldn't pass NCEA Level 1 last year.

So: If you don't have NCEA level 1, it's really difficult to get a decent job, to enter any kind of training. Just by passing NCEA Level 1 on average, a student earns $12K more a year and is significantly more likely to get a job and enter training. They’ve got more choices. You get an education, you have more choices. You don't have to be a brain surgeon you know, but you are still going to need basic numeracy, basic literacy to get any kind of job you want.

Getting students to pass the CAA S, which is the literacy and numeracy test is a top priority for schools across New Zealand, Peter Wills says. Mercifully, though he doesn't advocate dropping standards, which you can imagine other administrations might opt for to allow more young people to pass. He says maths teachers are adamant that the standard not be lowered to compensate for low pass rates.

You teach better, you teach differently. You give the kids the basic skills they need to pass. What we had before wasn't working and you know that, employers know that, parents know that.

That's why so many parents are spending thousands of dollars per child every year to shore up the gaps in their children's knowledge with private tuition, or sending them to private schools. They know the state education is, and has been, sub-standard, and it's not the fault of the teachers, it's the policy wonks in the Ministry of Education, whose half baked theories? Formulated over dinner parties in Kelburn, inexplicably and inexcusably made it into the classroom.

And for decades now our once world-famous education system has degraded to where it is now. 30% of kids last year not passing the most basic secondary school exam. So as we start the school year as we with a call to arms from Erica Stanford and structured learning is going to be the saviour – and let's hope it is.

When it comes to employers, what are you seeing coming out of our schools at the moment? According to Peter Wills, it will be seven years before we see any benefits from structured learning.

We've got concerns about our productivity, we’ve investors as you heard this morning, travelling New Zealand looking for bright young things with startup ideas. Where the hell are those bright young things going to come from if we don't embrace the structured learning and reclaim our world class education.

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It is the end of the month. There's only 12 of them in a year. Into the first month of the year and still there are schools that are not back yet. Could someone please explain to me how it is reasonable in this day and age to have such disparate and wide-ranging start dates for the school year?

I don't know about your particular school, or your area, but of the ones I know about, Auckland Grammar borders have been back for two weeks. That seems perfectly reasonable. Mount Albert borders have been back one night, one day, and now they're off for the weekend. Another college, one of our colleagues has a son at that college, they're not opening the gates till the 10th of February. The 10th of February. Some primary schools started back this week, our kids start back next week. But then of course, there's Waitangi Day in the middle, so that's a bit disruptive.

No slight against the teachers. I've been helping out a bit with pickups and childminding and whenever I've gone into school to pick up the kids from their holiday programme, teachers are there getting their classrooms ready for the school year and prepping and doing what they do. But why on Earth hasn't the school year started? Why are we still prepping for a school year that is now one month gone? Most kids that I've spoken to, of numerous ages, are desperate to get back to see their mates, to learn new stuff, to play sport, to have some routine.

And a lot of parents are coming to the end of their respective tethers too. The days of mum and dad disappearing with the family to the batch over Christmas and then mum and the kids staying down there for weeks on end, being oiled up with suntan oil and put out to fry in the sun while mum read the Jilly Cooper’s. Dad, going to work Monday to Friday, then coming back on Friday and you could hear Dad coming from miles away because they'd be towing the trailer with the Swappa Crates in the back, and they'd be clanking their way down the driveway. Those days are long gone. I'm sure some families still do that, but for most families, you have to work.

For a lot of parents, the pay packets from the first few weeks back at work goes straight to the holiday programmes that the kids are enrolled into so parents can keep their jobs. And as for the poor parents with children at primary, intermediate, and secondary, it is absolutely impossible. There must be a really good reason, she said optimistically and perhaps naively, there must be a really good reason why school start dates are so disparate, random and arbitrary. But for the life of me, I don't know what that good reason would be.

Do you think while the government is focused on revamping our education system and bringing some form of uniformity to what is taught and how it is taught so that it's not so random, depending on which school you go to and which part of the country, do you think while they're at it, they should be looking at standardising the start of the school year as well? I certainly do.

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New Zealand’s “rockstar economy” seems to have become washed up.

HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham coined the term in 2014, and in an update last week confirmed that that’s far from the case at present.

He says that the economy had the largest decline in economic growth in the developed world last year, driven by interest rate increases in response to post-pandemic inflation.

Bloxham joined Kerre Woodham to dig into the data, and discuss what could be done to improve the economy.

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