2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook and Preparedness

Date: October 26, 2024

Purpose: To provide a summary of early predictions for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season and offer recommendations for preparedness based on current information.

Key Themes:

• Hurricane Season Timing: The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1st to November 30th. However, storms can and have developed outside of these dates. The eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 to November 30, while the central Pacific season (including Hawaii) runs June 1 through November 30.
• Early Predictions for 2025: Initial outlooks suggest an average to slightly above-average hurricane season in the Atlantic. However, experts caution that early predictions are subject to change.
• "Looking ahead to the 2025 season, early outlooks from various weather organizations suggest an average to slightly above-average season. However, experts caution that early predictions are prone to errors." - Fox Weather
• ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) Influence: ENSO is a critical factor influencing hurricane activity.
• Currently in a waning La Niña phase (late 2024), expected to transition to a neutral state in 2025.
• Neutral ENSO years have historically produced a wide range of hurricane activity.
• "Historically, neutral ENSO years have produced a range of hurricane activity, from a below-average number of cyclones to well above-average seasons, depending on variables such as sea surface temperatures, wind patterns and other atmospheric factors." - Fox Weather
• According to research from Florida State University, the Florida Peninsula and the Gulf Coast are especially affected during neutral ENSO years.
• Sea Surface Temperatures: Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, could contribute to increased tropical development.
• "The Caribbean is already warm enough to sustain tropical activity... The Gulf is several degrees warmer than average for this time of the year, and if sustained for several months, that could lead to more development." - Weather.com
• Importance of Early Preparation: The documents stress that preparing now is crucial, not waiting until a storm is imminent.

Key Facts and Ideas:

• 2024 Season Recap: The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season had 18 named storms, including 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. This is considered an active year, but below expectations of early forecasts.
• An average season produces 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes with an ACE value of around 122.
• Pre-Season Storms: Storms can and do form before the official June 1st start date. Examples cited: Tropical Storm Arlene (2023), Tropical Storm Bonnie (2016), Hurricane Alex (2016), Tropical Storm Beryl (2012).
• "Many recent years have had storms develop before June 1, the official start of hurricane season." - Weather.com
• Hurricane Names: The naming list for the 2025 season is provided, with Andrea being the first name. Dexter replaces Dorian on the list.
• "The first named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Andrea, followed by Barry, Chantal and Dexter. The name Dexter replaces Dorian, which was retired after the 2019 season." - Fox Weather

Allegations of Donald Trump's Recruitment by the KGB

Note: all sources were dated February 21st, 2025, implying this story takes place in the future

Multiple news sources report on allegations made by Alnur Mussayev, a former Kazakh intelligence chief, that Donald Trump was recruited by the KGB in 1987 and given the codename "Krasnov." These claims have resurfaced amid ongoing scrutiny of Trump's ties to Russia. Mussayev's allegations lack supporting evidence. There is also commentary on how a story about this allegation seemed to quickly disappear from the Daily Beast and other online sources.

Key Themes and Information:

• Allegation of KGB Recruitment: The central claim is that Donald Trump was recruited by the KGB in 1987 while he was a New York real estate developer. Alnur Mussayev, a former head of Kazakhstan's National Security Committee and a former KGB officer, is the source of this allegation. According to Mussayev, the KGB targeted businessmen from capitalist countries for recruitment, and Trump was one such target. As Mussayev stated, "In 1987, our directorate recruited Donald Trump under the pseudonym Krasnov.”
• Lack of Evidence: The news reports emphasize that Mussayev's claim is unsubstantiated and lacks concrete evidence. While he alleges that a file on "Krasnov" exists and is now managed by a close associate of Putin within the FSB, he provides no proof to support this.
• Historical Context: Trump's 1987 Moscow Visit: The allegations are linked to Trump's visit to Moscow in 1987, during which he explored the possibility of building a hotel. Soviet officials reportedly facilitated this trip, raising questions about its true nature.
• KGB Recruitment Tactics: The reports mention a 1985 KGB document outlining how to identify and recruit Western figures. The document instructed agents to target "prominent figures in the West" with the aim of "drawing them into some form of collaboration with us… as an agent, or confidential or special or unofficial contact.” Mussayev's claim suggests Trump may have been a target of such a recruitment effort.
• Trump's Denials and Concerns of US Officials: Trump has consistently denied any improper ties to Russia or collusion with Vladimir Putin. However, some US officials have repeatedly expressed concerns about his relationship with the Kremlin leader.
• Scaramucci's Comments on Trump and Putin: Anthony Scaramucci, former White House communications director, has added to the speculation, suggesting that Trump's deference to Putin has puzzled many former senior officials. "I think there is a mysterious ‘hold’ on the president,” he said, noting that H.R. McMaster, James Mattis, and John Kelly were also unable to understand Trump's affinity for Putin.
• Possible Removal of Initial Report: There is a claim that the initial story of this allegation disappeared from the Daily Beast and other sources quickly. According to the "Magic Disappearing DB Story About Allegations Trump Was Recruited as a Russian A.pdf" source, "I expected to see this story covreed heavily here, but nary a peep, and within hours, it was scrubbed from both the Daily Beast’s site, as well as various other outlets on the internet."

Conclusion:

The reports highlight serious allegations against Donald Trump, claiming he was recruited by the KGB in 1987. However, these claims are currently unsubstantiated and should be treated with caution.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 – Impact Risk Assessment

Asteroid 2024 YR4, a "city killer"-sized space rock (estimated between 40-100 meters wide or 131-295 feet), has briefly become the riskiest asteroid ever recorded due to a non-zero probability of impacting Earth in December 2032. Initial assessments calculated a potential impact probability as high as 3.1%, later revised down to 1.5%. While the initial impact probability was the highest ever seen for an asteroid of this size, scientists emphasize that this is a dynamic situation and the probability is expected to fluctuate and ultimately decrease as more data is collected. The asteroid is currently classified as a 3 on the Torino Scale, indicating a potential for localized destruction and meriting public attention.

Key Themes and Ideas:

• Fluctuating Risk Assessment: The core theme across all sources is the changing nature of the risk assessment for 2024 YR4. As more observational data becomes available, the predicted orbit becomes more precise, leading to shifts in the calculated impact probability. This is a normal process in near-Earth object (NEO) tracking. As Lee Billings states, "Asteroid 2024 YR4’s risk of hitting Earth is shifting with new data, astronomers say".
• Initial High Risk & Subsequent Reduction: The initial assessments in mid-February 2025 showed a relatively high impact probability, triggering concerns. CNN reported on February 19th that "A recently discovered asteroid, named 2024 YR4, is now the riskiest asteroid ever detected". However, later data, especially after the full moon passed, led to a significant reduction in the calculated risk. This highlights the importance of continuous observation. As the editor's note in the Scientific American excerpt points out: "Hours after this story’s publication, NASA announced that new data collected overnight had reduced the Earth-impact probability for asteroid 2024 YR4 from a record-setting 3.1 percent to 1.5 percent."
• The Torino Scale: The asteroid is currently at a 3 on the Torino Scale, which, according to Richard Binzel (the scale's inventor), indicates "current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction." The scale is intended to communicate the level of concern to both the public and officials.
• Importance of Continued Observation: All sources emphasize the need for ongoing observation and tracking of 2024 YR4 to refine its orbit and reduce uncertainties. The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is expected to play a key role in this effort by observing the asteroid in infrared light. "A team of astronomers will use the keen infrared eyes of NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope to further constrain estimates of the asteroid’s size and trajectory in early March".
• Comparison to Apophis: The articles draw parallels between 2024 YR4 and the asteroid Apophis. Apophis initially had a significant (but ultimately incorrect) risk assessment, which was later revised to zero after further observations. This serves as a precedent for the expected trajectory of 2024 YR4's risk assessment.
• Size and Potential Impact: The asteroid is described as a "city killer," which is a relative term. It is significantly smaller than the asteroid that caused the extinction event, and the potential destruction would be localized. If 2024 YR4 were to impact Earth, the result "could resemble a detonating hydrogen bomb, unleashing enough localized devastation to destroy any unlucky metropolis in the way."
• Mitigation Strategies (Premature at This Stage): While potential mitigation strategies like deflection or destruction are mentioned

New York City Congestion Pricing

New York City implemented congestion pricing on January 5, 2025, charging tolls to vehicles entering Manhattan south of 60th Street. This initiative, decades in the making, aims to reduce traffic congestion, improve air quality, fund public transit upgrades, and contribute to a more sustainable urban environment. Early data shows promising results with reduced traffic and improved travel times. However, the program faces opposition, particularly regarding its cost to drivers and potential negative impacts on outer boroughs and New Jersey. A major development occurred in February 2025 when the Trump administration moved to revoke federal approval for the program, leading to a legal battle and uncertainty about the future of congestion pricing.

Main Themes & Key Ideas:

• The Goals of Congestion Pricing:
• Reduced Traffic Congestion: The primary goal is to alleviate gridlock in Manhattan, one of the world's most congested areas. As stated in "Congestion Pricing Begins," this aims to "reduce traffic congestion in one of the busiest urban centers in the world."
• Improved Air Quality & Public Health: Fewer cars are expected to lead to reduced emissions and improved air quality. The NYLCV document quotes Julie Tighe: "We cannot drive our way out of the climate crisis. We need fewer cars on the road, less greenhouse gas emissions coming from our transportation sector, and less air pollution from tailpipes of cars idling in traffic choking our lungs."
• Funding for Public Transit: The tolls are projected to generate substantial revenue (up to $15 billion) for the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA), enabling modernization and expansion of the subway, bus, and commuter rail systems. This includes "updating tracks, cars, signals, and installing safety features like platform barriers," as well as accessibility upgrades.
• Environmental Sustainability: A long-term goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and contribute to New York's climate goals.
• Safer Streets: Congestion pricing aims to create safer streets by decreasing accidents and serious injuries. The NYC's congestion pricing plan has lead to "both crashes and injuries dropping by more than 50% in the CRZ."
• Implementation & Early Results:
• Toll Structure: The initial toll for passenger vehicles is $9 during peak hours and $2.25 during off-peak hours.
• Early Data: The "How Congestion Pricing Will Benefit New York City" article reports that just one month after implementation, "New York's Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) reported that 1 million fewer vehicles entered Manhattan's most congested zone," leading to travel time improvements.
• Increased Transit Ridership: Weekend express bus service ridership grew by more than 20%, and subway ridership increased by 7.3% during weekdays.
• Foot traffic increase: "Through Jan. 31, 35.8 million pedestrians entered major business districts in the tolling zone, nearly 5 percent more than in the same period last year."
• Opposition & Concerns:
• Cost Burden on Drivers: A major point of contention is the financial burden placed on drivers, particularly those from working-class backgrounds.

Impact of Trump Administration Staff Cuts on Federal Agencies (February 2025)

The Trump administration's push to downsize the federal government through layoffs and hiring freezes is having significant, and potentially detrimental, impacts on key agencies, particularly those related to climate science, environmental protection, and national park services. These actions are generating concerns about public safety, economic disruption, and the long-term health of vital government functions. Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is playing a significant role in these cuts, raising questions about conflicts of interest. While the full extent of the impact remains unclear, the reports suggest widespread disruption and a potential degradation of essential services.

• Significant Staff Reductions Across Multiple Agencies:Widespread layoffs and rescinded job offers are impacting the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NASA, the Department of Energy (DOE), the National Park Service (NPS), the Forest Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the General Services Administration (GSA), and others.
• "The layoffs of thousands of government workers are likely to expand — possibly as soon as Tuesday — to two key climate science and extreme weather agencies: NOAA and NASA." (Axios)
• "As part of a directive to fire most trial and probationary staff across the federal government, the Park Service on Friday terminated roughly 1,000 probationary employees, in what some are calling a 'Valentine’s Day massacre.'" (Washington Post)
• At the U.S. Forest Service, where some 3,400 workers are slated to be cut, wildfire prevention will be curtailed. (Politico)
• Disproportionate Impact on Climate Science and Environmental Protection:NOAA is facing potentially drastic cuts to its staff and budget, impacting its ability to provide weather forecasting, climate research, and fisheries management. Some sources suggest a potential halving of NOAA's workforce.
• "The Trump administration is looking to halve the NOAA workforce... The draconian cut...threatens to cripple an agency that provides climate and weather information across the U.S. economy." (Scientific American)
• The Commerce Department has instructed NOAA to search grant programs for climate-related terms, suggesting a targeted effort to curtail climate change-related projects.
• "Fire safety projects are already frozen and being canceled all over the West," said Rep. Jared Huffman regarding Forest Service layoffs. (Politico)
• National Park Service Under Strain:Layoffs within the NPS are causing disruptions to visitor services, maintenance, and resource protection. The loss of probationary employees and seasonal workers is particularly concerning as the peak tourist season approaches.
• "President Donald Trump’s purge of federal employees is not only upending the lives of National Park Service workers, but also threatening to harm the visitor experience at national parks across the country." (Washington Post)
• Examples cited include longer wait times at park entrances, canceled reservations, and potential closures of visitor centers and campgrounds.
• "‘Nobody to pump the toilets in a month?’" (Politico)

Conclusion:

The Trump administration's widespread staff cuts across the federal government are raising serious concerns about the future of key agencies and their ability to fulfill their missions. The potential consequences for climate science, environmental protection, public safety, and the economy are significant and warrant close monitoring.

Climate Science, Disaster Relief, and Weather Data

Meteorology Matters reviews three articles focusing on different aspects of environmental issues and their societal impact. The first article highlights the historical importance of Camp Century in Greenland for climate science. The second details the role of mules in providing disaster relief after a hurricane. The third explores the crucial function of NOAA in providing public weather data and the challenges of private companies replicating this service.

Source 1: "A U.S. military base built under Greenland ice had a pivotal role in climate science"

• Main Theme: The legacy of Camp Century, a Cold War-era U.S. military base built under the Greenland ice sheet, extends beyond its original military purpose to become a pivotal site in climate science history.
• Key Ideas/Facts:
• Camp Century was initially a secret project to test the feasibility of a hidden base under the ice, potentially for nuclear missiles. The project was eventually abandoned.
• A nearly mile-long ice core extracted from Camp Century in 1966 provided scientists with the first detailed record of Earth's climate, stretching back beyond the last glacial period.
• Quote: "So before the Camp Century core, we did not really have a reliable way of looking into the Earth's past climate. When the U.S. pulled out the Camp Century core in 1966, it provided a window into the past like people had never known before." - Glaciologist William Colgan.
• The site remains a "science super site" because early research established baseline measurements still used today.
• The ice at Camp Century is now melting slightly every year, even though it was initially chosen because the surface ice never melted.
• Quote: "Of course, when you go to the site today, you don't see anything. It looks like any other site on the ice sheet, just flat white snow and a blue sky." - William Colgan.

Source 2: "Mules that provided aid after Hurricane Helene struck down on road"

• Main Theme: The role of mules, specifically those from the Mountain Mule Packer Ranch, in providing vital disaster relief after Hurricane Helene, and the community's grief following the tragic death of three of these animals.
• Key Ideas/Facts:
• Mules from the Mountain Mule Packer Ranch played a critical role in delivering food, water, and building supplies to areas inaccessible by vehicles after Hurricane Helene.
• Quote: "They brought more than just supplies to people. It’s that they were bringing hope to people, because there were so many people that felt like they were forgotten," - Michele Toberer, co-founder of Mountain Mule Packers.
• Hurricane Helene was a Category 4 storm that caused significant damage (around $80 billion) and loss of life (at least 106 deaths).
• The ranch created a non-profit organization called Mission Mules to continue hurricane relief efforts.
• Three mules (Vader, Kev, and Amigo) were killed after escaping their pasture and being struck by a semi-truck.
• Despite the loss, the organization continues its mission to provide relief and host distribution events.
• Quote: "Their work ethic and what they’ve done with the people in western North Carolina taught us in the last few months that when something unimaginable happens, we still keep going." - Michele Toberer.

State of Science Under the Trump Administration (2025)

Meteorology Matters paints a concerning picture of the state of science in the United States under the Trump administration in early 2025. Key themes include:

• Widespread job cuts and firings in science agencies: Mass firings are reported at the NSF, NOAA, NASA, USDA, and other agencies, with many scientists protesting or pursuing legal challenges.
• Budget cuts and shifts in funding priorities: The NIH is facing potential budget cuts, including a controversial plan to drastically reduce indirect cost payments for research. Concerns are raised about the impact on biomedical research and university research programs.
• Political interference and erosion of scientific integrity: Concerns are raised about political interference in science, including potential censorship and suppression of research related to climate change. The appointment of individuals with anti-science views to key positions is also noted.
• Resistance and activism: The scientific community and concerned citizens are organizing in response to these changes, including protests, legal challenges, and public advocacy.
• Meta Ending Fact-Checking Program: Meta is shifting its approach to combatting misinformation by ending its fact-checking program, which has drawn both praise and skepticism.

Key Themes and Supporting Evidence:

1. Mass Firings and Job Cuts in Science Agencies:

• Several reports detail mass firings across government science agencies, including the NSF, NOAA, NASA, and USDA. The NSF is reported to have fired roughly 10% of its workforce.
• One USDA researcher described being "removed" from their "dream job" with an email stating the termination was due to poor performance, "which is nonsensical since they invited me to apply for a promotion just the other month.”
• The "Mass firings decimate U.S. science agencies" article in Science highlights that scientists are "joining the ranks of fired federal workers—and fighting back through protests, appeals, and legal challenges."
• NOAA and NASA are bracing for major job cuts.

2. Budget Cuts and Changes in Funding Priorities:

• The Trump administration is looking to drastically cut NOAA's staff and budget.
• The BBC reports that "Elon Musk... has claimed some universities were spending above that 30 percent" for research overhead, suggesting a rationale for budget cuts.
• Science reports that the NIH is planning to slash overhead payments for research, potentially costing universities billions of dollars. This has sparked outrage and a lawsuit.
• Senator Katie Britt (R-AL) stated that “a smart, targeted approach is needed in order to not hinder life-saving, groundbreaking research at high-achieving institutions like those in Alabama.”
• James Huganir expressed concern about the NIH cuts stalling 25 years of his research on SYNGAP1, a gene linked to intellectual disabilities.

3. Political Interference and Erosion of Scientific Integrity:

• A Physics World article describes concerns about the Trump administration's DEI rules and their potential impact on NASA's astronaut corps and research labs. Fermilab reportedly suspended its DEI office and restricted the activities of its LGBTQ+ group.

Ohio Valley Flooding & Potential FEMA Changes

Analysis of recent severe weather events and potential impacts of proposed FEMA restructuring.

The Ohio Valley and surrounding areas experienced significant severe weather in February 2025, including widespread flooding, tornadoes, and the threat of an impending arctic cold front. These events prompted state emergency declarations, evacuations, and resource mobilization. Simultaneously, proposed changes to FEMA under the Trump administration, involving a shift in disaster response responsibilities to the states, are raising concerns about the potential impact on disaster recovery efforts, particularly in states heavily reliant on federal aid.

Key Themes and Events:

1. Widespread Flooding and Severe Weather:

• Affected Areas: Kentucky, Virginia, West Virginia, Tennessee, and Arkansas were significantly impacted by heavy rainfall and flooding. Specifically, the town of Rives, Tennessee, experienced devastating flooding due to a levee breach on the Obion River. Clarksville, Tennessee also saw near-record rainfall.
• Flash Flood Warnings & Emergencies: Numerous flash flood warnings were issued, with some areas, like McDowell County, West Virginia, deemed "extremely dangerous and life-threatening" by the National Weather Service (NWS). A flash flood emergency was declared for Rives, TN.
• Impacts: Flooding led to evacuations, road closures, power outages, and damage to homes and infrastructure. At least 12 deaths were reported, mostly in Kentucky.
• Quote: "Do not attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order," the NWS said.
• Quote: "This has been very, very traumatizing, not knowing what the unknown is," Summar said. "We lost our home and right now, I don't know what we're going to do and where we're going to go."

1. Emergency Response and Resource Mobilization:

• State Actions: Governors of West Virginia and Kentucky declared states of emergency. State Emergency Operations Centers (e.g., in Nashville, TN) were activated.
• Evacuations and Sheltering: Mandatory evacuations were ordered in areas like Rives, TN. Shelters and warming centers were opened by local jurisdictions and the American Red Cross.
• Multi-Agency Coordination: State agencies like TDEC, TDOT, TDCI, TDH, and THP in Tennessee, and the National Guard, were involved in the response. Strike teams from various counties in Tennessee deployed to Rives to assist with the flood response.
• Federal Assistance: FEMA deployed Urban Search and Rescue teams, swift-water rescue teams, Incident Management Teams, and emergency communications support to Kentucky. FEMA also delivered truckloads of meals and water.
• Quote: "We are grateful to the emergency responders and crews in this area — and across the state — for prioritizing our people and doing what’s needed to keep them safe," wrote Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear on X.