In this episode, Kathy Jones and Liz Ann Sonders start out by discussing the latest developments in economic policy and tariffs. They also cover the latest inflation readings and their implications on the dollar and the Treasury market. Then, Liz Ann sits down with Phil Mackintosh, chief economist and senior vice president at Nasdaq.

They discuss the unique economic cycle in the U.S., post-pandemic, focusing on the interplay between micro- and macroeconomics. Mackintosh explains his thoughts on the role of tariffs, the Federal Reserve's current policy, immigration's impact on the labor force, and the outlook for profit margins and earnings. Phil and Liz Ann also examine the influence of AI on productivity, the performance of the Magnificent Seven stocks, and the challenges faced by small-cap companies. Finally, Mackintosh shares insights on valuation in a growth-oriented economy and outlines the risks and opportunities that lie ahead.

You can read Phil Mackintosh's weekly newsletter, Market Makers, on Nasdaq.com.

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

Currency trading is speculative, volatile and not suitable for all investors.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.

All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and cannot protect against losses in a declining market.

The PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX) is a modified market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies primarily involved in the design, distribution, manufacture, and sale of semiconductors.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

The Sahm rule is triggered when the three-month average U.S. unemployment rate rises by 0.50% or more from its 12-month low, which indicates a recession is underway.

The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

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In this episode, Liz Ann Sonders and Kathy Jones discuss the intersection of market analysis and political developments, particularly focusing on the implications of a second Trump term. They explore the performance of major tech stocks, the impact of regulatory changes on various sectors, and the current state of the bond market. The conversation also delves into the ongoing earnings season, highlighting the trends in corporate performance and expectations for the Federal Reserve's future actions amid economic uncertainty.

Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann look ahead to the data and economic indicators that investors should be watching next week.

You can read Liz Ann and Kevin Gordon's article, which she mentions, here: "A Look at Hard vs. Soft Data."

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

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In this conversation, Kathy Jones and Cooper Howard discuss the impact of climate shocks, particularly wildfires in Los Angeles, on the municipal bond market. They explore the risks associated with California municipal bonds, the financial implications for issuers, and the broader trends in climate-related events. Cooper emphasizes the importance of diversification for investors to mitigate potential risks and highlights the increasing frequency of climate shocks over the years. The discussion also touches on the role of federal assistance in managing the aftermath of such events.

You can read more from Cooper Howard about municipal bonds, including the potential impact of climate shocks, on Schwab's Insights & Education site.

Kathy and Liz Ann also analyze the latest inflation data and take a look ahead to the economic indicators that investors should be watching next week.

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

Diversification strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

Tax-exempt bonds are not necessarily a suitable investment for all persons. Information related to a security's tax-exempt status (federal and in-state) is obtained from third parties, and Schwab does not guarantee its accuracy. Tax-exempt income may be subject to the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). Capital appreciation from bond funds and discounted bonds may be subject to state or local taxes. Capital gains are not exempt from federal income tax.

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk.

All issuer names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.

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In the first episode of 2025, Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab's chief investment strategist, and Kathy Jones, Schwab's chief fixed income strategist, discuss the overall economic outlook for 2025 and take stock of where the markets are right now. The conversation focuses on fixed income and bond market dynamics, Fed policy, and the relative performance of equities. Liz Ann and Kathy reflect on the economy's resilience and growth potential, while also addressing the upcoming economic indicators and market sentiment. The conversation highlights the importance of understanding market concentration risks and the implications of bond yields on stock prices.

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are inflation-linked securities issued by the US Government whose principal value is adjusted periodically in accordance with the rise and fall in the inflation rate. Thus, the dividend amount payable is also impacted by variations in the inflation rate, as it is based upon the principal value of the bond. It may fluctuate up or down. Repayment at maturity is guaranteed by the US Government and may be adjusted for inflation to become the greater of the original face amount at issuance or that face amount plus an adjustment for inflation. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are guaranteed by the US Government, but inflation-protected bond funds do not provide such a guarantee.

The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.

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