"I don't see a lot of upside in the market in 2026, frankly."

That was the blunt assessment of Ron Ness, long-time president of the North Dakota Petroleum Council. He wasn't calling for a panic on this episode of Plain Talk, but he is suggesting some realism.

We invited Ness on to discuss the decision by North Dakota oil pioneer Harold Hamm to lay down his drilling rigs for the first time in decades.

"Rule number one is, nobody speaks for Harold Hamm other than Harold Hamm," Ness said, but added that Hamm is "simply saying the math simply just does not work at at this price of oil."

The reason for that is largely out of North Dakota's control. Operators here are at a disadvantage because of our state's geographic remoteness from refiners, as well as our weather. This has gotten harder as rising global supplies have driven down oil prices.

"I've been saying for years, you guys, I don't know if anybody's been listening, but our business climate in North Code is eroded," he said. "Our costs are higher. It's getting harder and harder...it's just really really expensive to operate here."

He argues that state leaders need to be cautious about committing themselves to more spending.

"We underestimate the impact on income taxes and the impact on sales taxes," he said, pointing out that the state takes in a lot of revenues from the oil extraction and production taxes, but what often gets discounted is the revenues from economic activity around operating drilling rigs. The sales taxes from equipment purchases, for instance, and the income taxes paid by workers.

"When you lay down drilling rigs... that's really the driver of of the economic activity." The state still has some real opportunities before it, though. "We're still leaving 85% of the oil behind," Ness said, which is ripe for enhanced recovery efforts.

"You can mobilize the oil if you put rich gas or or carbon dioxide on that rock and it mobilizes that oil off the rock," though he acknowledge that the politics around bringing the carbon dioxide needed for those efforts to the state through pipelines have become fraught.

Also on this episode, me and co-host Chad Oban react to last week's special session and prognosticate the likely fallout from the defeat of the school lunch bill.

If you want to participate in Plain Talk, just give us a call or text at 701-587-3141. It's super easy — leave your message, tell us your name and where you're from, and we might feature it on an upcoming episode.

House Majority Leader Mike Lefor, who just announced that he is not running for re-election, says that his predecessor, Chet Pollert, told him that the job was something like "running an adult daycare."

There are times when "you love the job and hate the job all within 9 seconds of each other." Still, Lefor says he tried to stay focused on policy.

"Politics is noise and noise," he said on this episode of Plain talk, and it "distracts from what you're trying to accomplish."

Also on this episode, U.S. House candidate Trygve Hammer talks about his decision to put his name on the ballot for the fourth straight election cycle. He may have competition for the Democratic-NPL nomination from former lawmaker Vern Thompson, but he said his past work to make himself known with voters makes him a good choice.

"From the delegate at the convention point of view, I'm the guy who's been to all the districts, done all the things," he said. "Supported district candidates, supported other organizations like Souris Valley Dems, like the D6 Women. Even when when I'm not running for office, I've been doing that stuff, helping recruit candidates. and all that."

"I think people see that I've made a lot of connections. Everybody around all the Democrats in the state know me," he added.

As for the incumbent in the race, Hammer says she's helped Congress cede "too much power" to President Donald Trump. He argues that North Dakota's federal delegation could help make Trump "a better president" if they stood up to him more often.

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President Donald Trump's administration has chosen to enforce federal immigration laws in a manner that prioritizes "maximum letahlity" over "tepid legality."

That's what Dakota Rudesill, a professor of law at Ohio State University and a former legislative assistant on national security to Sen. Kent Conrad, said on this episode of Plain Talk. He said that President Trump is usince ICE in Minnesota and elsewhere in the country as a "new federal domestic army."

Rudesill called the U.S. Constitution a "national security document," and argues that the separation of military and civil authority is a core American value found throughout our founding legal documents. With ICE dressing like soldiers, and using military equipment and tactics, and with ICE's leaders, up to and including President Trump and his cabinet, using the rhetoric of war to describe their activities, does that separation still exist?

"The Constitution was forged from national security crisis, and the highest level of government right encroaching on the liberty of the people in the name of national security," he said. "And so the framers wrote in that context, and they gave us the system we have, which is one where we have limited government not unlimited government."

With ICE patrolling American streets as if they were in enemy territory, with their assertion of the right to search homes without warrants, and deport detainees without due process, can we say that we have limited government or unlimited government?

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If North Dakota's oil industry could be represented by a single personality, it would be Continental Resources founder Harold Hamm. So when Hamm says he's laying down his drilling rigs because low oil prices mean there's no margin in operating them, it got a lot of attention from the public.

Oil tax revenues, both directly and indirectly, provide the lion's share of our state's funding. Is it time to panic? Not yet says Justin Kringstad, the executive director of the North Dakota Pipeline Authority.

"No major warning signs to start panicking about, but we'll keep watching it," he said on this episode of Plain Talk. "If the announcement by Continental is the start of something bigger, then absolutely, we certainly need to get on top of that right away and understand what the impacts would be for the state and as a whole."

"We need to watch the rig counts closely," he added.

What prompted Hamm to act, Kringstad said, is a global oversupply of oil. Asked if President Donald Trump's push to bring more Venezuelan oil to the marketplace is a part of that problem, Kringstad said not yet.

"The Venezuelan situation, just stepping back and looking at global oil markets, is not a major impact at all really on any of key markets" for the time being, he said.

Also on this episode, co-host Chad Oban and I discuss the debate over universal school meals at the special session in Bismarck

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In North Dakota, the 2026 election cycle isn't really going to be about whether our state is governed by Republicans or Democrats. It's going to be about which type of Republicans hold the majority.

So far, the state's traditional Republicans have been successful in holding the line against a rising tide of populists invigorated by the Trump era, but the populists have managed to capture control of key leadership positions within the NDGOP. They hold a slim majority of district chairs, which in turn has allowed them to elect one of their own as state party chair.

The populists will likely endorse their preferred candidates at the party's local and statewide conventions. The tradional, normie Republicans will mostly take their case to the voters on the June primary ballot.

District 3, in Minot, may well be key ground in this battle. The state House incumbents here are Rep. Jeff Hoverson and Rep. Lori VanWinkle, two bible-thumping religious zealots who are notorious for promoting culture war issues and little else. They face a challenge from Tim Mihalick and Blaine DesLauriers, who say they'd like to go to Bismarck to support Gov. Kelly Armstrong's agenda.

"I really like what Governor Armstrong has brought to the table," DesLauriers said on this episode of Plain Talk. "I think he needs more allies that think and act like him and that's what I want to do."

For his part, Mihalick says he'd like to bring a more collaborative approach to the legislature. Reacting to comments Hoverson made declaring people who disagree with him as "enemies," Mihalick says he doesn't see politics that way.

"I don't see [political opponents] as my enemies," he told us. "I spent my life negotiating and recognizing that everybody needs to win when you complete a deal."

We asked the two candidates if Armstrong asked them to run. "Yeah, he did," Mihalick said. DesLauier said that while Armstrong hasn't officially backed their candidacies yet, "we're expecting his endorsement."

Also on this episode, we discussed the ongoing questions about finances at the F5 Project, a high-profile, Fargo-based nonprofit. Me and co-host Chad Oban also discussed the resgination of Nico Rios, and the upcoming special session.

If you want to participate in Plain Talk, just give us a call or text at 701-587-3141. It's super easy — leave your message, tell us your name and where you're from, and we might feature it on an upcoming episode. To subscribe to Plain Talk, search for the show wherever you get your podcasts or use one of the links below.

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Congresswoman Julie Fedorchak says that she doesn't agree with how Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem has handled the situation around the shooting death of Renee Good, and ICE's overall activities in Minnesota.

Within hours of Good's death, Noem called her a "terrorist, something Fedorchak says she doesn't agree with.

North Dakota's congresswoman criticized the modern tendency to "respond too quickly in our culture" and come to "rash judgments with very little information," noting that she's personally avoided these things in her own messaging.

"We need more calm voices leading the charge," she said.

Fedorchak also defended her decision to vote against extending enhanced subsidies for people purchasing their insurance through the federal exchanges, raising concerns about fraud in the program. "We've got 34 million people, 34% of that program, is going to fraudulent participants," she said. "Like, this is not the kind of government that I can get behind. And so extending that for three more years is just intolerable to me."

"The solution is not throwing $80 billion at a broken system," she continued. "For $80 billion, we still have patients receiving significant increases, even with a subsidy in their insurance, and no solutions and continued wasted money and fraud. I can't get behind that."

Also on this episode, co-host Chad Oban and I discuss the on-going turmoil around ICE's activities in Minnesota, as well as the lawsuits filed by Minnesota and Illinois against the federal government.

If you want to participate in Plain Talk, just give us a call or text at 701-587-3141. It's super easy — leave your message, tell us your name and where you're from, and we might feature it on an upcoming episode. To subscribe to Plain Talk, search for the show wherever you get your podcasts or use one of the links below.

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On this episode of Plain Talk, me and co-host Chad Oban react to more tragedy in Minneapolis, with the killing of Renee Good. The facts of what happened are still being established, but what did we think was going to happen when federal agents are operating under an administration intent on enforcing federal law in the most aggressive, most provactive way possible?

Also on this episode, Fargo mayoral candidates Josh Boschee and Denise Kolpack join to discuss their newly-announced campaigns. Kolpack is a current member of the city commission, and the deputy mayor, while Boschee is a Democrat elected to the state legislature.

Boschee talked about his skill working across ideological divides, as well as his familiarity with how things operate in Bismarck. He also said he's glad he doesn't have to pretend like he's not a Democrat, despite the mayoral race being officially nonpartisan.

Kolpack, meanwhile, said her experience in local government is what counts. She said he's pushed back on some bad ideas from the commission, and would work to alleviate some of the dysfunction there.

Both candidates weighed in on Fargo's controversial handling of the Applied Digital data center in the works in Harwood. Kolpack said Fargo acted like a bully. Boschee said he'd have done a better job of setting the city's priorities and communicating them.

If you want to participate in Plain Talk, just give us a call or text at 701-587-3141. It's super easy — leave your message, tell us your name and where you're from, and we might feature it on an upcoming episode. To subscribe to Plain Talk, search for the show wherever you get your podcasts or use one of the links below.

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"I just didn't get it prioritized to get out the door."

That's what Attorney General Drew Wrigley said on this episode of Plain Talk when asked about the state's annual crime report, which is typically released over the summer, but this year wasn't made public until New Year's Eve.

The delayed report comes amid an intense debate over crime in North Dakota. The most recent report, covering the year 2024, showed some declines from recent peaks in serious crime categories, but they're still signficantly up over the last decade.

"Violent crime and robbery crimes against the person...came down two 2%," Wrigley said, "but that 2%...makes last year the 10th highest of the last 11 years. You're talking over 4,000 more victims every year than was the case in 2014."

Wrigley said he plans to continue his push for stricter sentencing policies in next year's legislative session. He was unsuccessful in winning enough votes among lawmakers for his proposed reforms during the first two legislative sessions of his tenure in office.

Wrigley also addressed delays in his office in responding to open records and open meetings complaints filed by the public, and the news media -- "the number of requests is quite robust," he said -- and said that he planed to address a legislative request for an opinion on Retirement and Investment Office bonuses in "weeks" not months.

Also on this episode, co-host Chad Oban and I react to my story about top executives at the F5 Project giving themselves personal loans out of the nonprofit's revenues, as well as my report about legislature's potentially preempting, during their upcoming special session, a ballot measure for universal school meals with a proposal of their own.

If you want to participate in Plain Talk, just give us a call or text at 701-587-3141. It's super easy — leave your message, tell us your name and where you're from, and we might feature it on an upcoming episode. To subscribe to Plain Talk, search for the show wherever you get your podcasts or use one of the links below.

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