The dynamics of the war in Ukraine, after three years of stalemate, are showing signs of shifting. The Trump administration is pursuing direct negotiations with Russia. European leaders are meeting amongst themselves and clashing over whether to send in troops. Ukraine says it will not recognize any negotiations that do not include Kyiv. All this comes after the conflict reshaped assumptions over global power and triggered the largest surge in defense spending since the Cold War. Global military budgets soared to $2.46 trillion last year alone, a 7.4% increase, as nations rushed to fortify their defenses. The stakes for global security have never been higher.

The Global Intelligence Desk is pleased to welcome Dr. Alina Polyakova, President and CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), one of the leading voices in transatlantic security, as we unpack the key takeaways from the Munich Security Conference, the latest shifts in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, and what these developments mean for global power dynamics and the future of international security.

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The Munich Security Conference kicks off in Germany this Friday amid tensions on both sides of the Atlantic. Meanwhile, defense priorities are shifting with a new U.S. administration and upcoming elections in Germany and the European Union. Many items are on the agenda, but the conference will conclude with a discussion on Europe’s role in the world.

We are joined by Keith Webster, Vice President at the Chamber, and President of the Defense and Aerospace Council and Federal Acquisition Council, calling in from Munich ahead of the Munich Security Conference. Webster will share his expectations for the meeting, key security challenges and how they relate to actionable insights for business, and how the U.S. and its allies are navigating these challenges as well as what lies ahead for transatlantic defense and economic security.

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Colombia stands at a critical economic juncture. Amid political uncertainty, shifting trade relations, security concerns and an ambitious energy transition, credit rating agencies are watching Colombia's fiscal health. A dispute with the U.S. over migrants and tariffs was resolved quickly, but focused attention on the bi-lateral relationship.

Bogota’s policies on fossil fuel dependency, taxation, and investment are shaping the nation’s trajectory, while global factors—ranging from a strong U.S. dollar to geopolitical shifts—add further complexity.

For this timely discussion, The Global Intelligence Desk is excited to host Juan Daniel Oviedo, an economist and former Director of Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE). As a leading voice on economic policy and regulatory frameworks, Oviedo shares insights on how Colombia can navigate this moment and seize opportunities for growth.

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European unity is being put to the test. Across the continent, the Ukraine war is straining resources and defense capabilities. Tech regulation is a source of tension and debate. A populist backlash against migrants is roiling politics. And transatlantic relations are evolving amid rising competition with China.

Europe has survived in recent decades through trade, and through a reliance on cheap Russian energy, all while outsourcing much of its security. But, as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said at Davos last week, “those days are long gone.” Now, as differences emerge over how best to address Europe’s challenges, a question looms over the continent’s businesses and policymakers: How united is the European Union?

For this timely discussion, The U.S. Chamber's Global Intelligence Desk is delighted to host Dr. Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, the acting President of the German Marshall Fund of the United States. A leading voice in European and transatlantic affairs, Dr. de Hoop Scheffer provides key insights into how Europe is managing an increasingly restive voter base and a struggling economy.

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The U.S. will face a slew of foreign policy issues that will require attention in the months and years ahead: a weakened Iran in the Middle East, an economically struggling China, an expiring nuclear arms deal with Russia, a prolonged war in Ukraine, and a long list of economic issues involving friends and rivals alike.   

These challenges, and geopolitics in general, are rising to the top of the agenda of any U.S. business operating across borders.

For 2025’s first episode of The Call, the Global Intelligence Desk is delighted to host an extended, live conversation with Richard Haass, President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations. Haass, a former senior advisor to the U.S. State Department and author of the weekly newsletter, Home & Away, helps us explore the dynamics shaping the debate over the future of U.S. foreign policy. 

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After managing decades of double-digit economic expansion, China is now struggling to produce growth at half that rate, the result of a property market bust, deflation, flagging consumption and the collapse of local infrastructure investment. The upshot is growing uncertainty over Beijing’s economic, diplomatic and military role in the world, and to address that uncertainty, the Global Intelligence Desk is delighted to host an episode of The Call with Elizabeth Economy, the Hargrove Senior Fellow and co-chair of the Program on the US, China, and the World at the Hoover Institution.

Economy will help us address a series of questions that are now top of mind for businesses and anybody following China’s economic challenges: What do China’s economic struggles mean for President Xi’s vision? Will China still leverage its market to pursue policy changes in other countries? Does a weaker economy slow China’s infrastructure investment abroad? Will Beijing turn inward, creating opportunities for the U.S.?

Originally recorded 12/17/24

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Businesses rely on water as a critical resource in the production and delivery of food and manufactured goods. Water stress can drive up costs, cause a significant disruption and lead to delays. Some say water is too cheap, too available, and often subsidized, causing overuse and poor stewardship. Our guest, Dr. Alex Money, Principal Investigator at Oxford University and founder of Watermarq, helps us address a series of questions related to the proposal for a rethink of water pricing: What are the tradeoffs to raising the price of water? Will this lead to better management of resource? Or just end up as a another effective tax? What are the risks to both businesses and communities if we don’t act?

This episode was recorded on 12/12/24

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Syria, now lead by Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the “Gatsby of jihadists,” faces a pivotal inflection point akin to the collapse of the Berlin Wall in the Middle East. If this government shift materializes into something more substantial, it could end decades of isolation, redraw Middle Eastern trade routes, and disrupt global power dynamics.

On a special rapid response episode of the Call, Jennifer Miel, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's Vice President of Middle East, Central Asia and Türkiye, joins Jay to offer crucial context and the best guideposts to watch as this story unfolds.

This episode was recorded on 12/10/24)

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