Épisodes

  • LOR6: Frequentism, its pros and its cons

    LOR6: Frequentism, its pros and its cons
    Feb 8 2025
    In this episode, we delve deeper into the frequentist definition of probability, showing how probabilities emerge from limiting relative frequencies. We discuss why this approach can be useful for mass random phenomena but falls short for single or rare events—especially in risk management contexts involving heavy-tailed risks. Through examples, we highlight the dangers of relying solely on historical data and underscore the need for more robust tools to capture the true nature of randomness.

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    15 min
  • LOR5: Moving toward Frequentism

    LOR5: Moving toward Frequentism
    Feb 1 2025
    Welcome to the fifth episode of The Logic of Risk. After introducing the classical definition, we begin a review of the main schools of thought in probability. We’ll see that some are objectivist and others are subjectivist, plus a few that position themselves somewhere in between. Among the objectivist schools, we’ll introduce the most commonly used (and abused) one: the frequentist school.
    Are you ready to take the risk?

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    18 min
  • LOR4: The classical definition of probability

    LOR4: The classical definition of probability
    Jan 25 2025
    In this episode, we provide an introduction to probability by exploring the classical definition, a concept rooted in the Renaissance and often used for pedagogical purposes. While historically significant, it has limitations in real-life applications.
    We'll also delve into key concepts in probability theory, including the sample space, event space, mutually exclusive events, and independence.
    Are you ready to take the risk?

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    16 min
  • LOR3: The possibility of harm, or an intro to probability

    LOR3: The possibility of harm, or an intro to probability
    Jan 18 2025
    After defining risk as the possibility of harm in Episode 1 and exploring the harm profile in Episode 2, we now turn our attention to the concept of possibility. To that end, we introduce probability as a way to assess possibility. This episode serves as an essential introduction to the various schools of thought on probability, which we will cover in the next episodes.

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    18 min
  • LOR2: Harm as a component of risk

    LOR2: Harm as a component of risk
    Jan 11 2025
    In this episode, we dive into the concept of harm, a fundamental component of risk—how can we understand, measure, and even rank it? We will break down its key dimensions and talk about a possible hierarchy.
    Starting today, you’ll find some bonus materials waiting for you at www.thelogicofrisk.com. For Episode 2, there’s a picture ready for you to check out. Don’t miss it!

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    18 min
  • LOR1: What is risk?

    LOR1: What is risk?
    Jan 4 2025
    Welcome to Episode 1 of The Logic of Risk.
    In this introductory segment, we will begin by defining “risk” and uncovering why it’s far more nuanced than most people typically think.
    Are you ready to take the risk?

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    15 min