Bernoulli's Fallacy
Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science
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Bernoulli's Fallacy
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Narrated by:
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Tim H. Dixon
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Written by:
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Aubrey Clayton
About this listen
There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not a minor academic quibble: It underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly statistics-reliant society, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy, with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and its role in making inferences from observations.
Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the 17th-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Clayton recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it. He highlights how influential 19th- and 20th-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics.
Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for listeners interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach - that is, to incorporate prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information - in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli’s Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data - and how to fix it.
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.
©2021 Aubrey Clayton (P)2021 Audible, Inc.You may also enjoy...
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What listeners say about Bernoulli's Fallacy
Average Customer RatingsReviews - Please select the tabs below to change the source of reviews.
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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Performance4 out of 5 stars
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Story4 out of 5 stars
- Lexloco
- 2023-05-08
Eye opening
Fascinating examination of the flaws of “traditional” statistics. I am going to buy the hard copy book. I didn’t understand a third of it (I zoned out for the formulas as I often do on audiobooks) but the accompanying materials were helpful.
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