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  • Thinking in Bets

  • Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
  • Written by: Annie Duke
  • Narrated by: Annie Duke
  • Length: 6 hrs and 50 mins
  • 4.5 out of 5 stars (248 ratings)

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Thinking in Bets cover art

Thinking in Bets

Written by: Annie Duke
Narrated by: Annie Duke
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Publisher's Summary

Wall Street Journal bestseller!

Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result.

In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a handing off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted, and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?

Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?

Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values, and even rewards, the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.

By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.

Includes a bonus PDF of charts and graphs.

PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.

©2018 Annie Duke (P)2018 Penguin Audio

What the critics say

"A big favorite among investors these days."–The New York Times

"A compact guide to probabilistic domains like poker, or venture capital... Recommend for people operating in the real world."–Marc Andreessen

"Duke’s discussion is full of wisdom and also of fun, warmth, humor and humanity. Her sharp, data-driven analysis comes with a large lesson, which is that losers should be willing to forgive themselves: Sometimes the right play just doesn’t work."–Cass Sunstein, co-author of Nudge

What listeners say about Thinking in Bets

Average Customer Ratings
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  • Overall
    4 out of 5 stars
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    4 out of 5 stars
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    4 out of 5 stars

Good book

There is a 15 word minimum, dont have too say much its just an interesting book

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2 people found this helpful

  • Overall
    4 out of 5 stars
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    4 out of 5 stars
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    4 out of 5 stars

Strong Book, but not "Great"

Cool look at a lot of different concepts and a good narrative tying it all together, I just couldn't help but feel I was looking for a cherry on top that never arrived. Enjoyed it all the way through and would recommend, though.

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1 person found this helpful

  • Overall
    5 out of 5 stars
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    5 out of 5 stars
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    5 out of 5 stars

First book I've added to my essential list in 8y

This books is a MUST have for any entrepreneur. It clearly outlines the traps and misguided assertions in our thinking and decision making and provides us with tools for recalibrating our decision making and getting comfortable with the results of those decisions.

It is the antidote for hindsight management and self doubt, and an essential tool for making better decisions today. It is the first book, I've added to my essential reading list for entrepreneurs in 8 years.

Thank-you, Annie Duke.

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1 person found this helpful

  • Overall
    5 out of 5 stars
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    5 out of 5 stars
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    4 out of 5 stars

How to to break your personal projected narrative

Great book! Very relatable for anyone. Annie's narration was easy to listen to and best of all remember.

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1 person found this helpful

  • Overall
    2 out of 5 stars
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    4 out of 5 stars
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    2 out of 5 stars
  • Ses
  • 2018-08-29

Good if one didn't read books it's based on

I found this book contains too little extra information comparing to those books it was based on.
Basically if you didn't read "Thinking Fast and slow" for example you will find this book interesting.
Finished reading on 4th chapter. Could not find enough useful information for me.

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1 person found this helpful

  • Overall
    4 out of 5 stars
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    4 out of 5 stars
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    4 out of 5 stars

Good overview of decision making strategy

Annie uses her research background and experience as a professor poker player to explain some of the basics behind decision quality as a decision making framework.

She is very clear at the beginning of the book it is not a book about poker — there are many references to the decision process that happens while playing poker, but this is not a poker strategy book. It is a great introduction to the other books and case studies referenced throughout.

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  • Overall
    1 out of 5 stars
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    3 out of 5 stars
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    1 out of 5 stars

Nothing at all about bets.

This will be the first audiobook I attempt to return.

This book is written by a poker champion. I was expecting some insight into how professional gamblers approach bets - the thought and decision making process, the approach to risk and analyzing situations, about making decisions with partial info. I was expecting some unique insight. This was not at all what was delivered.

Instead there was a fair amount of her personal experience being mentored by the pros, her repeated advice to form a truth seeking group and some recycled behavioural economics concepts.

The personal experience seemed to be more about the value of being mentored vs the actual process or what was learned, the truth seeking group advice was impractical for the average person, and the behavioural economics info was largely a number of borrowed and seemingly nonrelevant concepts - such as how viewing an edited picture of yourself looking a lot older helps you plan for retirement.

It seems the title should be something like, "The value of mentors and a truth seeking community when trying to grow" . If that was the title I wouldn't be bothered by the content. But as it stands I feel that I've been tricked into buying this!

On another note, the author seems interesting enough and if she were to write a book that actually matched this title I would be quite interested to read it. Hopefully she does!

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  • Overall
    3 out of 5 stars
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    3 out of 5 stars
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    3 out of 5 stars

Good, not Great

This could’ve been a 1hr book, started off really well but and has good message, but rest of it was just extra.

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  • Overall
    1 out of 5 stars
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    2 out of 5 stars
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    1 out of 5 stars
  • Jan
  • 2022-06-01

What?

Boring, uninteresting, quoting too many other authors. Title really misleading frankly, really learned nothing from this.

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  • Overall
    5 out of 5 stars
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    5 out of 5 stars
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    5 out of 5 stars

going to listen again, right away!

this book is awesome. well thought out and easy to digest. voice is nice to listen to as well.

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