https://www.alainguillot.com/the-u-s-vs-the-european-stock-market/ The different performance between the European and U.S. stock market. Over the past 12 months, the U.S. stock market, as represented by the S&P 500, has increased more than 30%, demonstrating great economic momentum and investor confidence. On the other hand, the European market has lagged significantly, with the iShares STOXX Europe 600 ETF (IEUR) seeing a much more modest increase of about 7%. This disparity highlights underlying differences in business environments and economic policies on both sides of the Atlantic. One of the critical factors contributing to this performance gap is the regulatory and taxation landscape in Europe, particularly the U.K. Business creation in the U.K. has recently fallen to its lowest point in 13 years, a signal that entrepreneurs and innovators are facing significant hurdles. High corporate taxes (25%), stringent regulations (labor laws, environmental laws), and economic uncertainty have stifled new ventures and investment, further slowing growth. In contrast, the U.S. has maintained its appeal as a more entrepreneur-friendly arena. Lower taxes (21%), flexible regulations, and a strong support ecosystem for startups have encouraged innovation and business formation. This welcoming climate draws not only domestic entrepreneurs but also international innovators seeking a more dynamic environment for their ventures. People come from all over the world to start businesses in the U.S., and investors come from all over the world to invest in the U.S.) The divergence in business growth is reflective of broader macroeconomic trends. While Europe grapples with economic sluggishness, compounded by post-Brexit complexities and fiscal challenges, the U.S. benefits from a strong market culture that prizes risk-taking and supports rapid scalability. Investors and economic analysts continue to take note of these differences as they project future market behavior and potential investment strategies. Without significant policy shifts in Europe to support startups and reduce tax burdens, the continent may continue to see slow growth compared to the U.S., where the business landscape remains conducive to innovation and expansion.

https://www.alainguillot.com/stock-market-success-enjoying-the-gains-and-preparing-for-the-unexpected/

Generally, when my stocks are going up, I consider myself a genius. However, when the market is going down, I often blame the government, the market itself, or the latest geopolitical drama.

Over the past 12 months, my portfolio has increased by over 30%, and over the last five years, it has grown by about 90%.

Can the stock market continue going up? Will there be a downturn soon? How do I balance the enjoyment of the present gains with the little voice that says, “What if…”

While drinking a glass of champagne and dining at my favorite vegan restaurant, I’m fully aware that the celebration could end at any moment. There could be a negative year, or perhaps several negative years. Yet, despite this awareness, I struggle to take profits off the table. Instead, I am actively seeking alternative sources of income so that, if my luck in the stock market runs out, I’ll still be able to pay the rent.

I think it’s normal to hope for the best possible outcome.

Companies should strive to be as profitable as possible.

Employees should aim for the best possible compensation.

Families should seek to live fulfilling lives, but within their means.

We all want the best, but we should also have a plan to prepare for the worst.

In my case, I accept that having a bad year is part of the journey. If that happens, I hope to face it without panicking. Don’t be sad because the party ended; be happy because it happened.

I want to end with one question: What personal rainy day fund are you building? It’s not just about money. It could be about emotional resilience. Are you building a network of supportive friends to hold your hand in case of a downfall? Are you developing new skills, either to stimulate your brain or as an alternative source of income? Think about what your safety net looks like. What are you doing today to prepare for tomorrow?

https://www.alainguillot.com/trends-and-income-inequality/

While income inequality is increasing within industrialized countries, it is actually decreasing on a global scale due to globalization. This is because globalization has created opportunities for economic advancement in developing nations, leading to millions of people being lifted out of poverty. However, the increased wealth of a select few individuals in developed countries, like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, often leads to criticisms of unfairness and calls for wealth redistribution. However, countries where wealth redistribution policies have led to disastrous economic consequences, such as Uganda, Zimbabwe, and France. Instead of focusing on income redistribution, we should focus on creating an environment that fosters economic growth and opportunity, such as simplifying business licensing, promoting online education, and expanding affordable public transportation. Promoting economic freedom and opportunity is the best way to reduce poverty and create a more equitable society.

https://www.alainguillot.com/small-stocks/

The article explores the potential impact of a Trump presidency on small-cap stocks and the Canadian economy. It argues that tax cuts, protectionist policies, deregulation, and lower interest rates could benefit U.S. small-cap companies, potentially leading to increased profitability and growth. However, these policies could also create challenges for Canada, particularly if tariffs are reintroduced, negatively impacting export-dependent sectors and supply chains. The article cautions investors to consider both the potential benefits and risks associated with political changes when making investment decisions.

https://www.alainguillot.com/declining-birth-rates/

The declining fertility rate globally and the potential implications for society. While some view this decline as a cause for concern due to its impact on workforce size, economic growth, and social security systems, others argue that it can be beneficial. Proponents of a declining population highlight the potential for reduced resource competition, improved environmental sustainability, better healthcare and education, and a more robust job market. Challenges exist, but nations can adapt and find opportunities for positive change in a world with a shrinking population.

https://www.alainguillot.com/trump-and-the-prediction-market/

Today, half of market and political predictors are baking in glory, while the other half are retrieving into a dark corner of the internet to find their own spin on why/how they went wrong.

The demand for active stock pickers, market pundits, and fund managers has never waned. Though passive funds now hold more U.S. stock than active ones, there’s still a widespread belief that some people can “pick the winners.” Even if the data suggests otherwise, we keep searching for the person who can give us an edge.

With Donald Trump’s election, the modern-day prophets have returned in force. Everyone has a take, a hot prediction, a “plan” for the markets and economy under Trump’s second term. They’re quick to say, “Here’s what will happen next,” or “You should buy this, sell that.” But what’s the cost when they’re wrong? When your savings are on the line, every false prediction stings.

Those who predicted Trump’s success are stepping into the spotlight, basking in their brief moment of accuracy. But we should remember that these predictions, while sometimes right, often carry immense risk. The bigger question is: what happens to the countless wrong predictions that quietly fade away? And those who predicted a win for Kamala Harris, what are they saying now that their prediction proved wrong?

So, what’s the best approach for an investor today? Ignore the noise. Ignore the pundits. When Trump’s presidency or any major event tempts you to trade on someone else’s gut feeling, remember that even the experts are often guessing.

Yes, it’s uncomfortable to sit with uncertainty. But in reality, the honest answer is usually the simplest one: “I don’t know.” It’s a response that feels unsatisfying because it lacks certainty. And yet, the path to financial stability often lies in acknowledging what we don’t know and focusing on the fundamentals.

As much as we might want someone to tell us what’s coming next, the best investment strategy is often to stick to what we know works. The stock market will rise and fall, elections will come and go, and financial “sorcerers” will continue casting their spells. But the real power lies in tuning them out and investing based on reason—not magic.

The Trump Factor and the Return of the SoothsayersWhat Can We Do? Stop Listening

https://www.alainguillot.com/the-decline-of-iconic-brands/

Big, iconic brands that once seemed untouchable are falling out of favor. These companies prided themselves on having a moat—a barrier that keeps competitors at bay. For example, Coca-Cola is such a powerful brand that any potential competitor must invest millions of dollars in marketing just to capture a small share of the soft drink market.

However, things are changing rapidly; these moats are becoming less effective. Traditional marketing methods are evolving, and newcomer brands are eroding the power of established ones.

1. Failure to Adapt to New Marketing Channels: The era of glossy magazines and TV advertising is over. The new generation consumes media on platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts. Young influencers can emerge seemingly out of nowhere, building a following of millions and launching their own brands, challenging well-established brands in both reach and cost.

For example:

• Rihanna, with over 300 million followers, owns the brand Fenty Beauty.
• Kylie Jenner, who has over 500 million followers, owns Kylie Cosmetics.
• Kim Kardashian, with over 400 million followers, owns the brand Skims.

These influencers have gradually taken market share from established cosmetic brands such as Estée Lauder, Revlon, and L’Oréal. However, event the well stablished influencers are facing competition themselves from a new wave of younger influencers.

2. Intensified competition. Well established brands such as Macy’s and Gap are losing the battle to e-commerce giants like Amazon. New Balance and Hoka are taking a bigger and bigger piece of the pie of the sneaker’s market from Nike. Netflix has obliterated all traditional cable TV and other streaming services.

3. Brand stagnation: The attitude of many brands is as follows: “If it isn’t broken why fix it?” But the world keeps on changing and if you don’t change with the world, you are left behind. Several companies, much like Kodak, have experienced significant brand stagnation, often due to technological disruption, resistance to innovation, or a slow response to changing market trends. Other examples are:

• Blackberry, displaced by Apple
• Blockbuster, destroyed by Netflix
• Sears, displaced by Walmart and Amazon.

4. A backlash against WOKE culture. In an attempt to virtual signal, many brands, such as Bud Light, Ben & Jerry’s, Target, and Disney, have embraced “woke” culture and Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives, prompting a backlash from consumers. Many people are frustrated with the ongoing discussions around gender issues and prefer to adhere to traditional definitions of gender, believing that a man is a man and a woman is a woman. This sentiment extends to a reluctance to use non-binary pronouns. Just because the person in from of them has mental health problems, doesn’t mean that they have to play along in their imaginary world.

Additionally, there is considerable opposition to biological men participating in women’s sports and using girls’ bathrooms. Many consumers also express discomfort with the representation of fat people or transgender models in Victoria’s Secret lingerie advertisements, feeling that these changes do not align with their preferences. Furthermore, many advocate for meritocracy in hiring practices, asserting that qualifications should take precedence over considerations of gender, race, or sexual orientation.

Just today Boing announced that they’re scrapping their global diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) department as part of an overhaul of operations, in order to compete, not on virtual signaling but on the quality of their products.

To survive, brans have to continuously reinvent themselves. A good example is Microsoft under the leadership of Satya Nadella. Under the leadership of Steve Ballmer Microsoft was stagnant, becoming irrelevant but then when Satya Nadella came into the leadership, Microsoft was revitalized and it’s now one if the most innovative and

https://www.alainguillot.com/hopeless-about-money/

I have a few young friends and family members, and I often try to spark their interest in the stock market, investing, or starting new ventures. Sometimes, I get a few nods and smiles; other times I get an eye roll, but most of the time I get ignored or dismissed.

When I came to Canada, I had one main goal in life: to learn about investments and become a millionaire. Although I’m not a millionaire yet, I’ve learned quite a bit about investing. I am so surprised that my younger friends don’t share the same interest in building wealth.

I think young people are disillusioned with traditional financial goals, especially regarding retirement or buying a house. This attitude is shaped by several factors: housing is expensive, education is expensive and oftentimes it doesn’t get you a good job, and healthcare is difficult to get; wages are not enough to cover the cost of living; and there is a perceived lack of stability in the economy and job market. Additionally, young people are constantly bombarded with advertisements for products and lifestyles that they cannot afford, often leaving them financially hopeless. For all these reasons, the classic vision of “work hard, save, and retire” feels out of reach—and even irrelevant.

While the stock market has become more accessible than ever through apps like Public and Robinhood, these platforms have also created unrealistic expectations. If you aren’t making 100% per year by buying the latest meme stock, or crypto currency, they wonder “why bother?” The typical investment in the stock market that produces a healthy 8% seems to be so inadequate for someone who is struggling to pay this month’s rent.

For young people who are curious about investments, navigating the stock market is often challenging due to an avalanche of information, financial jargon, and unscrupulous advisors who want to sell them financial products with high management fees.

There’s also a persistent myth that real estate is the best way to build wealth. However, with today’s high property prices, maintenance demands, and often modest returns after factoring in all costs, real estate isn’t the wealth-building path it once was. Yet, the myth endures due to cultural conditioning and stories of past successes. This trend means that while the bottom 50% of earners tend to have most of their wealth tied up in real estate, the top 10% are more likely to have their wealth in the stock market or private businesses.

I believe we need to do better in educating our youth on how to become savvy investors, rather than relying on financial advisors or managers who prey on clients’ lack of knowledge. Young people need to understand how the stock market works—and that they can participate in it, even with small amounts of money.

I think financial literacy should be taught in high schools, after all not everyone will need to know calculus, physics, or gender studies, but everyone will need to, at one moment or another, invest the money they earn from their labor.

How would you inspire curiosity in young people about the stock market and investing? What strategies or approaches would you use to make these topics feel exciting and relevant?”