Summary:

In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the rising cost of eggs and other factors contributing to inflation stickiness. They also discuss the stock market flirting with an all-time high, when to expect cuts from the Fed, and much more!

Key Takeaways:

• The S&P 500 is near an all-time high despite economic concerns.
• Inflation remains a hot topic, with rising egg prices making headlines.
• Momentum is driving market performance, with all 11 S&P sectors in positive territory.
• Housing, auto insurance, and used cars are the primary contributors to inflation stickiness.
• The Fed remains in a cutting bias, but rate cuts may not happen until midyear.
• Trade and tariff policies have the potential for long-term market impacts.
• The possibility of a government shutdown is looming, adding another layer of uncertainty.
• Retail sales took a surprising hit, but that may be due to recent extreme weather and seasonality.

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Relevant Hashtags:

#StockMarket #Investing #Inflation #InterestRates #MarketTrends #FinancePodcast #Eggflation #FederalReserve #Tariffs #PersonalFinance #CarsonGroup

Summary:
In this episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss the biggest economic and market concerns beyond tariffs. They dive into historical market indicators, the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates, employment trends, and whether the third year of a bull market signals trouble. The duo also touches on global markets, the effects of potential retaliatory tariffs, and the latest employment data revisions.

Key Takeaways:

· Tariff Uncertainty: New tariffs on steel and aluminum imports could lead to retaliatory measures from Europe and other trade partners.

· Market Indicators: The December low indicator flashed a warning, though broader market trends remain resilient.

· Federal Reserve & Interest Rates: The Fed is taking a cautious approach, possibly delaying rate cuts until later in the year or even 2026.

· Employment Trends: Payroll revisions lowered job growth estimates, but productivity gains remain a silver lining.

· Market Breadth & Leadership Shift: Large-cap tech stocks show signs of lagging, while broader market participation remains mixed.

· Historical Trends: Year three of a bull market tends to be weaker, averaging only a 2% gain.

· Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan:

· LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

· X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu:

· LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

· X: Sonu Varghese

Relevant Hashtags:
#StockMarket #Investing #Economy #Tariffs #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Finance #MarketTrends #WealthManagement #Trading #EconomicOutlook

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dive into the latest tariff drama, analyzing its potential impact on the economy, markets, and inflation. They explore past trade wars, the Fed’s stance on inflation uncertainty, and how fiscal policy—especially potential tax cuts—could shape 2025. Plus, they discuss the January market rally, historical trends for February, and why volatility is a necessary part of investing.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• Tariffs create uncertainty, but history shows markets adapt.
• The Fed’s rate cut timeline may be delayed due to inflation concerns.
• Fiscal policy could offset the impact of tariffs, especially with potential tax cuts.
• Despite uncertainty, broadening market trends and strong corporate earnings remain positive.
• February has historically been weak post-election, but the long-term outlook remains bullish.

Resources:

● Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

● LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

● X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

● LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

● X: Sonu Varghese

Publishing Tags: #FinancialMarkets #Investing #StockMarket #Economy #Tariffs #TradeWar #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MarketTrends #InvestmentStrategy #GlobalEconomy #StockMarketAnalysis #EconomicPolicy #PersonalFinance #FinancialPlanning #InvestorEducation #MarketVolatility #Trading #WealthManagement #FinancePodcast

Artificial Intelligence is reshaping industries and global competition, and understanding its market impact is critical.

How do advancements like DeepSeek's AI change the game? What does it mean for the global economy, technology stocks, and U.S.-China relations?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore the transformative impact of AI, the economic trends shaping 2024, and the importance of diversification in portfolios. They also discuss the implications of AI for productivity, technology sector competition, and global markets.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The emergence of DeepSeek, a cost-effective and open-source AI competitor, and its implications for the AI market
• U.S. and Chinese competition in technology innovation and the broader economic significance of AI advancements
• The impact of AI cost reductions on accessibility, productivity, and business adoption across sectors
• Recent market trends, including the role of technology stocks, mid-cap performances, and financial sector growth
• The broader economic outlook, emphasizing the benefits of AI-driven cost efficiencies for the economy and the importance of maintaining diversified investment strategies
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

The investing world is buzzing as markets rally, inflation softens, and a familiar political figure makes headlines.

How do these factors shape the current economic picture? What are the implications for portfolios and policies in the months ahead?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, discuss the surprising strength of markets, the potential impact of tariffs and a stronger dollar, and the outlook for inflation in 2025. They highlight key data and trends that show resilience and opportunities in the economy despite widespread skepticism.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The recent broad market strength, particularly in small and mid-cap stocks, and the implications of improved market breadth
• Why inflation metrics, especially core CPI, show improvement and the role of lagging indicators like shelter costs and motor vehicle insurance
• The influence of tariffs and a strengthening dollar on U.S. manufacturers, earnings, and inflation expectations
• Resilience in the labor market, including trends in part-time workers and construction jobs, suggesting economic stabilization
• Policy uncertainties, including President Trump’s potential tariffs on Canada and Mexico and their possible effects on global trade and markets
• And more!

Resources:

• Download the full Market Outlook 2025 here.
• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
• ROMA Collectibles

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

How do market strategies evolve amidst economic shifts, policy adjustments, and investor behavior?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, share their 2025 outlook. They delve into economic growth, earnings, policy impacts, and the potential paths for stocks and bonds.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• Predictions for stocks growing 12-15% and bonds by 4-7%, with a focus on equities
• Observations on U.S. economic resilience driven by consumer balance sheets and productivity
• Potential risks from interest rates, housing market stagnation, and a strong dollar’s effects on exports and earnings
• Anticipated Fed rate cuts and inflation trends tied to real estate and wage growth
• Strategies emphasizing diversified investments, including opportunities in underperforming mid-cap and small-cap sectors
• And more!

Download the full Market Outlook 2025 here.

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

How do market strategists assess their predictions and refine their strategies for the future?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, reflect on 2024's market outcomes. They explore what they anticipated correctly, where they misjudged, and how these insights shape their 2025 outlook.

They also highlight the key drivers behind market performance, emphasizing transparency and adaptability in strategy.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The impact of a Santa Claus rally that failed to materialize and its implications for short-term market sentiment
• The contributions of earnings growth, dividends, and multiple expansion to the S&P 500's 25% total return in 2024
• Their successful forecast of Federal Reserve rate cuts and their influence on economic stability
• The underperformance of small and mid-cap stocks despite positive expectations and the need to adapt to market shifts
• The strong performance of U.S. equities over international stocks, driven by relative economic strength and a resilient dollar
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

How can advisors truly thrive in their personal and professional lives? Dr. Phil Pearlman brings a refreshing perspective, blending psychology, health, and financial strategy to empower advisors to achieve peak performance.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Dr. Phil Pearlman, Founder of the Pearl Institute, to explore actionable strategies for enhancing well-being, overcoming modern challenges, and optimizing decision-making.

Dr. Pearlman shares insights on building healthier habits, combating distractions, and fostering meaningful connections in an ever-demanding profession.

Dr. Pearlman discusses:

• How to tackle phone addiction and reclaim time for personal growth and relationships
• Simple steps advisors can take to improve health and performance, including dietary and physical activity tips
• Strategies for setting and maintaining achievable goals for long-term success
• The importance of focusing on individual progress over external comparisons to combat FOMO and enhance satisfaction
• Insights on leveraging psychological flexibility to quit bad habits and make more effective decisions
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Dr. Phil Pearlman:

• Email: ppearlman@gmail.com
• LinkedIn: Philip Pearlman
• X: @ppearlman
• Website: Dr. Phil Pearlman
• Website: Pearl Institute

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

Phil launched Pearl Institute to help people live healthier, perform better, and make wise decisions. Previously, he spent years serving as an executive in both finance and media. Phil lives with his wife and two boys in Montebello, New York.