The ongoing confirmation hearings for RFK Jr., Kash Patel, and Tulsi Gabbard have been largely predictable. But as always, the real story isn’t the grandstanding—it’s in the quiet calculations happening behind the scenes.

This was RFK Jr.'s second day facing the Senate, and the discussion largely revolved around his past statements on vaccines. But if you’re looking for movement in the room, there wasn’t much. Coverage focused on explosive exchanges between Democrats and the nominees, but that’s irrelevant. The Democrats can all vote no, and it won’t change a thing. What matters is what Republicans are saying—and there’s little indication that they are going to vote against RFK Jr.

RFK Jr. remains politically resilient for two reasons:

* The Kennedy name still holds value with a broad swath of Americans.

* His skepticism of Big Pharma and Big Agriculture resonates with a coalition that includes both libertarians and "crunchy moms"

The main Republican angle of attack was always going to be abortion. RFK Jr. has been pro-choice his entire life, but now he’s taking orders from a pro-life president. How does that play out? He faced questions about the abortion pill but gave answers that were lukewarm at best.

My assumption: He’s moving forward.

Kash Patel’s hearing was predictably contentious, with heated exchanges involving Adam Schiff and Amy Klobuchar. But, again, those don’t matter. He also had solid support from Republican lawmakers, which means his confirmation is essentially a done deal.

If Matt Gaetz was a non-starter because of his long list of enemies, Patel should have had similar problems—he’s burned plenty of bridges. The difference? Patel has a history in law enforcement, whereas Gaetz does not. That seems to be enough to push him through.

This is where things get interesting. Unlike RFK Jr., Tulsi Gabbard doesn’t have the built-in advantage of a famous name. Unlike Patel, she lacks a Republican establishment safety net. And unlike both of them, she has a real opposition force: the intelligence community.

Tulsi has been one of the most vocal critics of the intelligence agencies, particularly regarding FISA Section 702, which she argues enables domestic surveillance. She’s also expressed support for Edward Snowden—a major red flag for the very institutions she’d be overseeing as Director of National Intelligence.

Her hearing featured a bipartisan focus on one specific issue: Would she call Snowden a traitor?

She wouldn’t.

She acknowledged that Snowden broke the law, that there were other ways he could have exposed government overreach. But she refused to use the word “traitor.” And that, oddly enough, might be the line that sinks her.

It speaks to a deeper issue of symbolic politics. It wasn’t enough to condemn Snowden’s actions—she needed to emotionally brand him as a traitor. Her refusal to do so is revealing because it suggests that there are Republicans who may see her as too much of a risk to intelligence operations.

Looking at prediction markets like Polymarket:

* Kash Patel is sitting comfortably at 95%.

* RFK Jr. has dipped slightly from 78% to 75%, but still strong.

* Tulsi Gabbard is now underwater at 44%.

That’s not a good place to be.

Gabbard’s nomination has created one of the strangest coalitions in modern politics—hardcore MAGA figures lining up alongside Tom Cotton and Meghan McCain. But if Trump’s team is going to throw its weight behind any nominee, it’ll likely be her. The next 72 hours will tell us if she has the votes or if this is where the process stalls.

Not a ton of surprises overall, but one question remains: Will the Trump administration go all in on Tulsi?

We’ll see.

In this episode we also have a great chat with Michael Tracey who makes his Px3 debut. I wanted to talk to him about current events but we wound up spending the whole hour rehashing the 2024 campaign.

Chapters

00:00 Intro

02:30 Confirmation Hearing Chaos: Tulsi Looks Wounded

14:17 UPDATE: Potomac Crash and Vivek Monster Ohio Numbers

23:34 Michael Tracey

The wolves are out for two of the Trump administration’s most unconventional cabinet picks.

Can Tulsi Gabbard and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. survive their hearings this week?

Let’s start with Bobby.

Caroline Kennedy has publicly stated her opposition to RFK Jr.‘s appointment. Caroline is deeply embedded in the power structure of the modern Democratic Party—she has served multiple times as an ambassador and was one of the first major endorsers of Barack Obama back in 2008. So, make of that what you will. RFK Jr., the black sheep of the family, is now stepping into a Republican administration, a move that surely raises eyebrows.

Though, if we’re speculating, old Joe Kennedy probably wouldn’t have had much of a problem with it.

Then there’s Tulsi Gabbard. A recent New York Times article titled “A Vatican Meeting Added Scrutiny of Tulsi Gabbard’s Foreign Travels” befuddled me. If you remember Gabbard’s complaints about being placed on a TSA watch list, this article confirms it—but oddly enough, it doesn’t treat that as the headline. Instead, the focus is on why she was put on the list, with government sources leaking that it stemmed from her attendance at a Vatican conference organized by a man who was reportedly on a terror watch list.

The Times knows this man’s name but chose not to publish it because they couldn’t verify why he was on the list. Essentially, the government gave the reporters a briefing, naming this individual as the reason Gabbard was flagged, but when pressed on why he was on the list, they refused to elaborate. And yet, the Times still ran with the story.

The article tacks on another odd claim—an intelligence briefing reportedly revealed that two Hezbollah members once mentioned Gabbard in a conversation that was passed on to US intelligence. During Gabbard’s controversial trip to meet with Bashar al-Assad she also met with “the big guy,” according to the Hezbollah fighters.

My first thought? She met with Joe Biden? No, apparently, “the big guy” in this case was either a Hezbollah leader or a Lebanese government official with ties to Hezbollah, which, given the region, isn’t exactly uncommon.

But what’s the real takeaway here? The way this story is framed makes little sense. If the government comes to you with information about a public figure, I understand reporting on it. But why not fold it into a larger piece digging deeper into the actual process behind it? Why not talk to Gabbard directly? Why not investigate the TSA’s reasoning in more detail? Instead, this piece presents her as suspicious without providing substantial evidence.

And knowing now that the government proactively brought this information to the Times, it only raises more red flags. That’s a weak justification for placing a high-profile critic of the current administration on a TSA watch list. It’s probably a bad thing to do in general. It’s even worse that they felt the need to leak it to the media.

But, of course, the real motive is clear—they don’t want her confirmed. There’s no other reason for the government to hand this story to the Times unless they’re trying to sink her nomination.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction

01:34 Why didn’t I Cover The J6 Pardons More?

17:02 UPDATE: MI Senate Race Heats Up, Trump Funding Pauses, Buyouts?

34:23 Previewing Tulsi Gabbard and RFK Jr. Hearings with Jen Briney

President Donald Trump, on his first day back in office, issued pardons and commutations to over 1,500 individuals involved in the January 6, 2021 Capitol attack. This action nullified the efforts of the Justice Department’s extensive investigation and prosecution of the events. 

The clemency measures included full pardons for the majority of those convicted, effectively erasing their criminal records. Additionally, sentences for 14 prominent figures, such as Proud Boys leader Enrique Tarrio and Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes, were commuted to time served, leading to their immediate release. 

La Pointe reporter Claire Meynial has been covering the trials and incarcerations of many of these cases and joins us to talk about the reality of the cases and we guess about the political fallout.

Also:

* The vibe inside congress during the indoor inauguration.

* A plea for digital services like YouTubeTV to carry C-SPAN

Chapters

* (00:00:01) Introduction

* (00:01:22) The Battle for C-SPAN’s Future

* (00:07:06) Update: Hegseth Secured? Ratcliffe Confirmed. JFK Files Declassified

* (00:15:57) Claire Meynial on J6 and Inauguration