Roger Cliff – China's Future Military Capabilities The 2022 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America identifies China as the “pacing challenge” for the US military. This podcast examines the process by which China’s military capabilities are developed, the capabilities China’s military is seeking to acquire in the future, and the resulting implications for the US military. To date, all the extant studies have merely described the capabilities the People’s Liberation Army is currently acquiring. The monograph goes further by drawing on the Chinese military’s publications to identify and discuss the capabilities the People’s Liberation Army seeks to acquire in the future. The monograph finds China’s military is engaged in a comprehensive program to field a dominant array of military capabilities for ground, sea, air, space, and cyberspace warfare. Countering these capabilities will require the United States and its allies to engage in an equally comprehensive effort. The monograph’s findings will enable US military planners and policy practitioners to understand the long-term goals of China’s development of military capabilities and to anticipate and counter China’s realization of new capabilities so the United States can maintain its military advantage over the long term. Read the monograph here. Email usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast. Keywords: China, PLA, People's Liberation Army, cyber warfare, space Episode Transcript: China's Military Capabilities Stephanie Crider (Host) You're listening to Conversations on Strategy. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the authors and are not necessarily those of the Department of the Army, the US Army, War College, or any other agency of the US government. Joining me today is Dr. Roger Cliff, a senior intelligence officer and former research professor of Indo-Pacific affairs in the Strategic Studies Institute at the US Army War College. He's the author of China's Future Military Capabilities. It's great to talk with you again, Roger. Thank you for making time to speak with me. Dr. Roger Cliff I'm glad to have this opportunity. Host Let's get right to it. Why did you write this monograph? Why now? Cliff This monograph was prompted by my observation that many of the US Army's long-term planning documents had set the year 2035 as the target for the capabilities that they described the Army seeking to develop. And that struck me because the Chinese military has also identified 2035 as the target year for its modernization program. So, they have a three-step program, the first step of which I guess is now complete, which was to largely complete the process of mechanization by 2020 and then to have basically completed its overall modernization progress by 2035 and then to become a world-class military by mid-century. So, I was struck by the coincidence that both the (US) Army and the Chinese military had chosen 2035 as their target years. Host What do we know about China's process for developing military capabilities? Cliff We actually know quite a bit about this process. It starts with the issuing of what are called the military strategic guidelines. These are a set of principles that the Chinese top leadership issues that describe the types of military conflicts the Chinese military needs to prepare for, who the most likely adversaries are, and what the nature of future military conflict is likely to be. They are not issued on a regular basis. They're issued whenever the leadership feels like they need to be revised or reissued. The most recent revision occurred in 2019. Prior to that, it happened in 2014, 2004, and 1993. So, you can see there isn't any specific pattern other than I t generally happens about once every 5–10 years. The rest of the process, however, is quite regularized, and it's tied to the Chinese government's over...
