Eric and Eliot debate the merits and deficiencies of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s attempt to present “Trumpism with a human face” at the Munich Security Conference before turning to the dilemmas Trump faces in Iran. They discuss the administration’s uncertain strategic objective, the failure to consult Congress and the public, and the potential for a much longer military engagement than Trump is accustomed to. In the second half of the show, they welcome Hoover Institution Senior Fellow Frank Dikötter to discuss his newly published book, Red Dawn Over China: How Communism Conquered a Quarter of Humanity. They explore the weakness of the communist movement before World War II; the extensive role Soviet support played in sustaining it and in equipping and training what would become the People’s Liberation Army; the deep Stalinist ideological impact on the party; and the extraordinary violence and barbarity the CCP inflicted on the Chinese populace in the territories it occupied.

Red Dawn Over China: How Communism Conquered a Quarter of Humanity:
https://a.co/d/0d3ozDuB

Eliot on Marco Rubio's Munich Speech (Gift Link):
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/02/marco-rubio-munich/686025/?gift=KGDC3VdV8jaCufvP3bRsPv8cuxRM97HlBS7AWRa8x2Q

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot begin with a buffet of administration jackassery before pivoting to a preview of the Munich Security Conference. They discuss Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Bridge Colby's remarks, as well as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's speech highlighting the importance of transatlantic ties. They also examine the New START treaty's recent lapse and the future of arms control, the prospect for additional U.S. strikes on Iran, and the apparent shutdown of Russian Starlink terminals. They conclude with a discussion of the ongoing international fallout from the Epstein affair and his many unexplained Russian connections.

Eric and Frank Miller's Latest on New START:
https://thedispatch.com/article/new-start-expiration-russia-united-states-nuclear-program/

Eric and Frank Miller on NATO:
https://www.nationalreview.com/2026/01/natos-not-dead/

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot welcome back friend of the show Kori Schake, Senior Fellow and Director of Foreign and Defense Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, to discuss her new book, The State and the Soldier: A History of Civil-Military Relations in the United States. They explore Kori’s critique of Samuel Huntington’s canonical study, The Soldier and the State, examine George Washington’s consequential resignation of his commission before the Continental Congress, and discuss the role of charismatic but unhinged military figures in American politics, as well as the relationship between civilians and military officers when executing orders.

The State and the Soldier: A History of Civil-Military Relations in the United States:
https://a.co/d/0biIePiP

The Soldier and the State: The Theory and Politics of Civil–Military Relations:
https://a.co/d/0dsgKaLr

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot discuss Trump’s latest reversals on Greenland before pivoting to the recently released National Defense Strategy. They dissect the many flaws of the NDS, including North Korean–style adoration for the President, a lack of explanation for how its stated goals would be achieved, and the total omission of Taiwan. The two also speculate about how Xi Jinping’s recent purge of General Zhang Youxia could impact the Indo-Pacific in the near future, before closing with an assessment of whether Trump is on the cusp of military action against Iran.

Eric on the National Defense Strategy:
https://thedispatch.com/article/trump-national-defense-strategy-europe-china-homeland/

Eliot on the National Defense Strategy:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/01/unserious-national-defense-strategy/685784/

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot welcome Stephen Kotkin, professor emeritus of history at Princeton University and senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and Freeman-Spogli Institute. They discuss his recent Foreign Affairs article, “The Weakness of the Strongmen: What Really Threatens Authoritarians?” Kotkin explores the frailty and resilience of authoritarian regimes through the lens of recent events in Venezuela and Iran, as well as the rise of Russia and China as authoritarian powers. They also discuss potential alternative future paths for Russia and turn to the current authoritarian temptation in the United States, along with the historic reasons for optimism that American democracy is robust enough to weather the depredations of the Trump administration.

• Eliot’s Latest in The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/01/trump-greenland-europe-nato/685720/?gift=KGDC3VdV8jaCufvP3bRsPgGy7Ja9UMv_dSH1wXC41Rk&utm_
  
  
• The Weakness of the Strongmen: What Really Threatens Authoritarians?: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/weakness-strongmen-stephen-kotkin
  
  
• The Five Futures of Russia: And How America Can Prepare for Whatever Comes Next: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/five-futures-russia-stephen-kotkin
  
  
• Stalin: Paradoxes of Power, 1878-1928: https://a.co/d/40CsvHC
  
  
• Stalin: Waiting for Hitler, 1929-1941: https://a.co/d/6IQt4nR
  
  

Eliot's coastal Georgian internet connection holds on just long enough to review the administration's latest jackassery before Eric welcomes journalist Michael Weiss to the show. Their wide-ranging conversation covers the prospects for U.S. strikes in Iran, Trump's Venezuelan adventure, and the latest from the Russia-Ukraine war. Finally, the two discuss recent revelations related to Havana Syndrome and the role Russian military intelligence has likely played in attacks on U.S. intelligence, law enforcement, and foreign service officers overseas.

Eric and Frank Miller's Latest on New START:
https://open.substack.com/pub/thebulwark/p/time-to-end-the-last-us-russia-nuclear-trreaty-new-start-trump-putin-china-weapons-missiles-ukraine

Foreign Office by Michael Weiss:
https://macspaunday.substack.com/

Michael's Investigation in The Insider on GRU Links to Havana Syndrome:
https://theins.ru/en/politics/270717

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot discuss serious threats that Trump continues to make against Denmark and the possibility that the administration might use military force to seize Greenland. They also examine the seizure of the ghost fleet tanker Bella, the risks of inadvertent conflict with Russia, and ongoing negotiations in Paris over the future of the war in Ukraine. The conversation explores the odds that Russia can continue fighting in 2026 given immense battlefield losses, the country’s cratering economy, and shifts in Ukrainian domestic politics. Finally, they turn to the intensifying protests in Iran, contrasting them with earlier waves of public revulsion against the regime in the late 1990s, 2009, 2017–18, and 2022–23, and discuss what indicators might suggest the regime is truly coming apart at the seams.

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot return from holiday break with a special episode breaking down all things Venezuela. They discuss the Trump administration's raid in Caracas to capture Nicholas Maduro, the legal and constitutional basis for the operation, and the differences from past interventions in Panama and Iraq. The two also examine the next steps in Venezuela and the administration's prospects of success in "running" the country.

Eliot's latest in The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/01/trump-hegseth-venezuela-military/685530/?gift=KGDC3VdV8jaCufvP3bRsPhkQGhz7GxTTEE7TT-QEa0Y&utm_

Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

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