The Property Trio (formerly The Property Planner, Buyer and Professor)

Written by: Cate Bakos David Johnston and Mike Mortlock
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  • Summary

  • Formerly The Property Planner, Buyer and Professor, our show rebranded in 2023 to The Property Trio.

    Residential property is the only asset class we live in, it is where we raise our families, and it is our most expensive investment, yet property advice remains unregulated. Our objective is to educate time-poor professionals through deep insights from our experts who have provided thousands of Australians with personalised advice and education spanning two decades. In a climate where we are overloaded with information and one size fits all recommendations from the media, well-meaning friends and family and so-called advisers, we will distill the raw truth from the ill-informed.

    So join the Property Planner, David Johnston, The Property Buyer, Cate Bakos and the Quantity Surveyor, Mike Mortlock as they take you on a journey of discovery through the maze of property, mortgage, and money decisions to empower you to create your ideal lifestyle!
    Copyright The Property Trio
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Economics Personal Finance
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Episodes
  • #298: Is Melbourne’s Property Market About to Turn? A Data-Driven Look at What’s Next

    #298: Is Melbourne’s Property Market About to Turn? A Data-Driven Look at What’s Next
    Feb 24 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM


    Cate hosts today's show and she opens the conversation with the most recent interest rate cut. What could it mean for the property market? And will we see consecutive cuts in the short-term?

    Dave shares his perspective on Melbourne's anaemic property performance and he contrasts this miserable growth against some of the other capital cities. Looking at 10 years of data shows the following:
    • Melbourne, in contrast to other cities, experienced most of its growth pre-2020, with very little price appreciation in recent years.
    • Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide have seen the vast majority of their price appreciation occur from 2020 onwards.
    • Adelaide and Brisbane have been the major out-performers over the past decade.
    • Sydney saw strong growth pre-2020 and has since experienced more moderate gains since.
    Key indicators for Melbourne being at a turning point are interesting, and Mike chats about rental yields, and relative affordability, but what do the Trio think about the adoption of the mean reversion theory?

    Cate shares her thoughts about Melbourne's strengthening yield and in particular, the reason for the decay of rental stock over recent years. There is no doubt about it, rental yields play an important role in investor decision-making.

    Home Buyer sentiment is another important key indicator, and this has jumped recently in Victoria. This has been in stark contrast to Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide where it has fallen significantly.

    The Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Survey “time to buy a dwelling” index nationally reached 89.9 in January, its highest level in nearly three years. Sentiment counts for a lot, but as Mike points out, "Sentiment is a tricky thing". Can large waves of buyer's agents skew a market? Can an artificial environment drive price movement when a disproportionate number of buyers agents all compete? Cate talks about the scenarios where this may be the case, but she feels that owner-occupiers are more likely to move markets. Fear of missing out is a genuine concern for many prospective upgraders and first homebuyers.

    How have Melbourne’s median property values changed over the past few years, and what does this tell us about where the market is headed? Dave leads our listeners through some great contrasts between capital cities. Intrastate migration has played a role too.

    Mike touches on dwelling value to income ratios and the Trio consider the pull of affordability and job opportunity in other cities, both regional and capital.

    Is now a good time for investors and homebuyers to consider Melbourne? Tune in to find out!

    .... and our gold nuggets!

    Mike's gold nugget: In a sea of positive data points, the sentiment remains the interesting one to follow. Mike feels this will become a more robust indicator of price growth.

    Dave's gold nugget: Dave maintains that 2026 is going to be the year for Melbourne! But he reminds listeners that they should make the right decisions based on what is right for their own personal economy.

    Cate's gold nugget: League ladders change all the time. There is no fixed order for performance of cities and history has shown us how this has alternated over the years.

    Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/02/24/is-melbourne-about-to-turn/
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    54 mins
  • #297: Market Update Jan 25 – Markets Brace for RBA Rate Decision, Is Perth’s Boom Over, Rental Pressures Ease & City Folk Flock to Regions

    #297: Market Update Jan 25 – Markets Brace for RBA Rate Decision, Is Perth’s Boom Over, Rental Pressures Ease & City Folk Flock to Regions
    Feb 17 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

    This week, Mike hosts the monthly market update and kicks off with a segment about Darwin. But, as Cate states, data points don't make a trend line. Darwin's recent performance may be noteworthy, but historical data suggests that Darwin's median property price is still less than what it was a decade ago.

    And while talking data, Mike promises our listeners some exciting data on mean reversion, (specifically in relation to Melbourne).... stay tuned!

    The Trio unpack the January indices.... is Perth's growth slowing? Melbourne and Sydney's negative median price movement is evident in the data, but does this correlate to what is happening at the coal face.

    Cate discusses the month of January, and the challenges that January's data brings. This sunny month is not typically a high-activity month for property, but what is different about 2025? Speculation about interest rate cuts is potentially fuelling some markets, and the Trio are keeping a keen eye on Melbourne's possible change in sentiment.

    The combined regions outperformed the combined capitals both quarterly and annually. The Trio unpack some of the reasons why this has occurred of late, and why this may be an ongoing trend.

    Rental rates have certainly slowed, and as the rolling annual averages rolls through, it's evident that some cities are no longer applying rental increases currently. Adelaide seems to still be leading the chase, but there is no doubt that the heady days of post-COVID have eased in relation to rental increases. Cate ponders the newsfeed changes too. Daily news about housing affordability has subsided notably.

    Rental yields are climbing, but with interest rates sitting above 6%pa,, cashflow neutral still remains elusive. Are buyers still searching for positive cashflow property? The Trio talk about the viability of this, as well as the challenges.

    The Westpac consumer sentiment data illustrates what the Trio are experiencing at their individual coal faces. From House price expectations to Time to buy a dwelling, and in particular, Interest rate expectations, the metrics suggest there is a change in the air. Cate says, "The data shows that there is a renewed sense of hope that we'll have easing rates, and an expectation that this will correlate with rising house prices." Mike makes the point that Australians indulging in travel has played a strong part in our economic outlook too.

    ANZ Roy Morgan's consumer sentiment chart is a bonus for our listeners and we've popped it in our show notes. The impact of economic and environmental challenges is not lost on the Trio and the chart illustrates consumer sentiment reactions to challenges such as bushfires and various lockdowns.

    The conversation around tariffs and US politics is not one that can be avoided. How will our resource-rich property markets respond to some of the recent news from America?

    One of the burning discussions is about interest rates. Dave chats about some of the key considerations that the RBA apply when determining whether to move rates. Low unemployment, productivity, currency challenges and inflation are just some of the key items that are being watched.

    And the last conversation is about politics and policies... how could 2025's Federal election change things up in the property market?

    Cate closes the episode with a reference to the inflation figures, market expectations for a cut, and the implication of the cash rate decision this month. It's a cracking episode and we hope our listeners enjoy!

    Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/02/17/ep-297-jan-2025-market-update/
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    56 mins
  • #296: Nailing Your Investment Purchase – Cash Flow vs. Capital Growth & How to Pick the Right Location

    #296: Nailing Your Investment Purchase – Cash Flow vs. Capital Growth & How to Pick the Right Location
    Feb 10 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

    Cate hosts today's listener question episode and Matthew writes in with his question; "I'm currently seeking to purchase an investment property in Melbourne, with a max budget of $1.2 million (as advised by my mortgage broker). I'd appreciate your opinion on what you consider to be the optimal investment-grade asset."

    The Trio each chat about the price points that they see investors circling when selecting an investment property budget. Unsurprisingly, Cate and Dave's client budgets are broadly aligned, but Mike's Quantity Surveying clients have budgets that are closer to the median price that the ATO has reported. Why are Cate and Dave's clients spending (on average) more than a typical investor? Personal plans, including stepping stone investments, holiday houses and future homes come into discussion. It's some of these quirks to traditional investment models that differ from median prices.

    Can investors have it all? Growth, easy cashflow and future opportunities? Perhaps not, but Mike takes our listeners through the steps that investors go through when determining their strategy.

    Cate talks about the rewards that a capital growth asset can provide, particularly through a higher rate of rental growth, but she reiterates that this benefit is dependent on time.

    Matthew’s two options he’s come up with are as follows: Option 1: A single fronted two-bedroom cottage in the inner northern suburbs, such as Coburg, Preston, Pascoe Vale etc.

    Option 2: A three to four-bedroom freestanding home in the Bayside suburbs of Cheltenham, Chelsea etc.

    Cate describes the challenges that Matthew's brief will face, and she details some of the examples that Matthew has suggested. Finding renovated products is more costly in this climate due to builder shortages and materials cost increases. Aside from the price, Cate also points out that negative cashflow needs to be well-understood by an investor who is circling a house in the Melbourne market, (and several other markets also).

    "'Sanity checking' these cashflows is an essential first step", says Dave. Aligning the purchase with the retirement goals is the next step, and only then can investors start boiling down to specific locations and dwelling types. This approach will hold an investor in good stead, regardless of the city that they are targeting.

    Matthew has a desire not to buy into a strata asset. What are some of the reasons why investors like to avoid strata? And are all strata properties inferior assets when contrasted to houses? Tune in to find out..

    The Trio each share their best tips for Matthew to get his next purchase started in the most optimal way.

    Shownotes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/02/10/investor-listener-question-february-2025/
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    37 mins

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