Inflation could hit 3.7% under Treasury’s ‘worst-case’ inflation scenario.

It’s while petrol prices have risen about 45 to 50 cents a litre, adding about $23 to the price of filling an average car.

Finance Minister Nicola Willis has outlined the government's priorities - First a focus on supply chains, then potential and anticipated freight disruptions, and lastly our economic response.

Ministers are meeting daily, written situation updates twice-daily, they’re working closely with importers – we're being told not to panic.

But, after criticising the last government to no end about its economic decisions during the pandemic - what tools does this government have to ease cost-of living pressures?

Today on The Front Page, NZ Herald business editor at large Liam Dann is with us to talk through what we could do next.

Follow The Front Page on iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

You can read more about this and other stories in the New Zealand Herald, online at nzherald.co.nz, or tune in to news bulletins across the NZME network.

Host: Chelsea Daniels
Editor/Producer: Richard Martin
Producer: Jane Yee

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A top economist advises thinking about working from home to save fuel.

Iran's maintaining its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz - retaliating to the continued bombing assault by the US and Israel.

It's led Sri Lanka to move to a four-day working week from tomorrow.

Westpac economist Kelly Eckhold says unless things change quickly, something will have to be done within the next three weeks.

"Through the Covid period, we were able to save quite a lot of fuel with the hard lockdowns. We're not going to save anywhere near that amount, but it'll certainly help provide more fuel for the higher-priority users of it."

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The economic impact of property investors is being quantified for the first time.

A report commissioned by the Property Investors Federation estimates the sector added $24.8 billion to GDP last year.

It also links investors to about 126 thousand jobs nationwide – about 5% of the workforce.

Advocacy Manager Matt Ball told Mike Hosking the lack of data has been damaging to the sector.

He says it leads to bad policy which leads to bad outcomes, so they're trying to change that.

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Nvidia’s growth is tied to a massive global build-out of AI infrastructure — but most of the spending isn’t coming from consumers. It’s coming from hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and Google pouring hundreds of billions into data centres and AI chips.

We unpack whether that spending boom can continue, why Big Tech is now turning to debt markets to fund it, and what happens if expectations around AI start to cool.

This bite is from our episode ‘The winners and losers of an AI revolution’.

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Finance Minister Nicola Willis has emphasised there’s a range of scenarios for inflation amidst the global oil crisis – not just the worst-case scenario of 3.7% outlined yesterday.

“We don't know what's going to happen with factors that are outside of our control,” she told Mike Hosking.

“We don't know how long the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed. We don't know whether Asian refineries will be able to access alternative supplies of oil in sufficient quantities, and we don't know whether importers will be able to access alternative supplies of refined products. So we're preparing for all of those scenarios.”

The Government remained "hopeful" there was enough cover, refineries could keep producing enough fuel and importers could bring in the quantities New Zealand needed.

Treasury would be the first to acknowledge their forecasts were “guessing games”, but "we have to plan for what could be around the corner so that if bad things happen, we're ready".

Hosking pointed out other countries were taking action to relieve mounting costs, including heating oil relief in the UK overnight.

But Willis said the UK and Europe’s energy and electricity prices were much more affected by events in the Middle East than New Zealand, which relies largely on hydro and renewables.

Our Government is closely monitoring the international response to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Donald Trump is calling on several allies to send warships and other support to secure the strait.

Japan and Australia say they currently have no plans to send naval ships and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer say neither will Britain be drawn into a wider war.

But Willis told Mike Hosking there will be much to play out in the days ahead.

She says they do want to see the Strait of Hormuz reopened, and it will be up to all countries to decide whether and what role they plan.

"We haven’t been asked to participate in any particular efforts in the Strait.”

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There's hopes the war in Iran doesn't reverse gains in our retail sector by making shipping more expensive.

Stats NZ data shows back-to-back increases in electronic card spending for January and February.

Retail NZ chief executive Carolyn Young says it's not happened in a long time.

She says it would be a shame if the conflict dampens the upward trend.

"Let's hope it's a short, sharp thing and we can get back to business as usual."

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