Independent economist Tony Alexander explains why we’re moving away from housing as a primary retirement plan, as a thirty-year era of falling interest rates comes to an end. Get Tony’s take on the dominance of first-home buyers, and whether now’s the time to lock in a long-term mortgage rate.

Why does Tony believe the Reserve Bank will hike rates again before the year is out? What’s behind the widening gap between the Kiwi and Australian economies? Why are we getting mixed signals from central bank forecasting, and what’s behind Tony’s theory that current inflation models might be fundamentally broken?

Plus, why Tony calls your local council a “monopoly”—and why you can't escape it.

For more or to watch on YouTube—check out http://linktr.ee/sharedlunch

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New jobs data out today spells worry for New Zealand’s economy.

The unemployment rate was 5.4% in the December 2025 quarter – the highest since September 2015.

Most banks had expected unemployment to hold steady at 5.3%, ASB was a bit more bullish picking 5.2%.

It means 165,000 people were unemployed last quarter – a quarterly increase of 5,000 people...

But, what does it all mean? What sectors are struggling? And can the government keep calling it all the “mess they inherited”?

Today on The Front Page, NZ Herald business editor at large, Liam Dann, is with us to dive into the data.

Follow The Front Page on iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

You can read more about this and other stories in the New Zealand Herald, online at nzherald.co.nz, or tune in to news bulletins across the NZME network.

Host: Chelsea Daniels
Editor/Producer: Richard Martin
Producer: Jane Yee

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There are hopes things will gradually turn a corner for Canterbury milk processing firm Synlait.

It's revealed it expects to report a $77 to $82 million half-year loss, due to the ongoing impact of previous "manufacturing challenges” at its Dunsandel plant.

Ashburton-based supplier Willy Leferink says suppliers are worried, but they have supply contracts to honour, and what really matters is that they continue to get paid.

He told Mike Hosking the company seems to have a good plan to get things back on track.

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New Zealand's economic recovery could be more of a crawl, or a climb, than a bounce.

The job market remains tough, with unemployment now at a ten-year high.

EMA Head of Advocacy Alan McDonald told Ryan Bridge it's going to take a while for improved conditions and Government policy changes to flow through to the job market.

ASB Senior Economist Mark Smith says while jobs are being created, we're still about 30-thousand jobs shy of where we were three years ago.

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The Government has launched a review into soaring home insurance costs - to take place over a six-month period.

This investigation comes as AA Insurance moves to pause new home insurance offers across the South Island.

NZ Herald Wellington business editor Jenee Tibshraeny unpacked what we can expect from this deep dive.

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Blenheim residents say AA Insurance has stopped offering new home insurance policies in their town, following similar decisions in Westport and parts of greater Christchurch.

The insurer would not confirm that Blenheim and the neighbouring settlements of Renwick and Seddon were subject to its temporary halt.

Insurance Council CEO Kris Faafoi says the insurer is still supporting their current customers, and it's important for people to shop around.

"They all make their own business decisions about how much exposure they want to have on their books."

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Do you feel better off than you did three years ago?

With it being election year, that’s the question politicians are going to be asking you. It’s the question I’m asking you too in light of the latest unemployment numbers - which are the highest in more than a decade.

That’s the overall number. In Canterbury, things are a little bit better. The unemployment rate here is down and we’ve got 12,000 extra jobs. That was in the three months to December.

Nevertheless, we can’t deny that the better things are everywhere, then the better off we will all be.

Not surprisingly, Finance Minister Nicola Willis is saying that employment growth is up. She says people are feeling more confident about the economy. Which is why the data released yesterday showed that, despite the overall unemployment rate increasing, there are more people out there looking for work because they’re confident that there is actually work out there for them.

My view on that is that, yes, there is work out there - but you have to do a lot more than just email your CV and a cover letter. In some cases, you have to physically knock on doors - just like the old days.

But back to whether or not we actually feel any better off. For me, it’s a mixed bag. But I suspect that’s a stage-of-life thing.

The kids have all grown up - so life is naturally less expensive on that front. No school camps and sports trips to pay for. I’m not buying clothes or shoes for kids who keep outgrowing them.

So life is cheaper for me on that front. Nevertheless, every time I go through the check-out at the supermarket, I’m still blown away by how much it costs.

Not to mention what it’s like if you’ve still got the kids at home and you’re doing the weekly shop to keep them fed and watered. Then, if you’ve got a home loan, there’s the mortgage rates.

They’re still on the up and who knows what further increases might be on the cards with the Reserve Bank still fighting the inflation battle.

As one of our listeners, Paul, points out: “Inflation is up, interest rates are up, unemployment is up and redundancies continue. Store closures continue too.”

I’m guessing Paul’s answer to my question is that he doesn’t feel any better than he did three years ago. But what about you?

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