Vancouver home prices took a sharp dive in January, hitting a two-year low, while Canada’s GDP shrank in November, signaling potential economic trouble ahead. Adding to the uncertainty, looming tariffs could push housing costs even higher, leaving both buyers and sellers wondering what’s next. If you’re planning to enter the market in 2025, this episode is essential as we break down the data and what it means for you.
The market is facing some serious headwinds and the threat of Tariffs is ever present. The potential for a 25% Tariff on key building materials like windows, drywall, and appliances would drive up construction costs, making new homes even more expensive. While a temporary 30-day pause has been put in place, tariffs could still take effect at any time. Earlier this week, when they seemed imminent, BMO’s chief economist projected 0% GDP growth for 2025, 8% unemployment, and aggressive interest rate cuts down to 1.5%. The Canadian dollar briefly hit a 23-year low, and the 5-year bond yield dropped to a 30-month low, signaling lower mortgage rates ahead. In fact, 5-year fixed mortgage rates are already available at 3.89%, a sharp decline from last year.
The BC Real Estate Association has painted a stark picture of what could happen if tariffs are imposed and Canada retaliates. They predict home sales could drop 30%, while active listings could rise 40%, leading to a more prolonged buyer’s market. Mortgage rates could climb to 6% by 2026, and while prices are still expected to rise, they would increase at a much slower pace. With so much uncertainty, many buyers and sellers may wait on the sidelines, similar to the early days of the pandemic.
At the same time, Vancouver’s housing market is seeing some surprising shifts. January sales were up 9% year-over-year, marking the strongest January in three years. But new listings surged 46% compared to last year, reaching one of the highest January levels on record. Inventory is climbing quickly, hitting 11,100 active listings, a 33% increase over last year. The last time inventory was this high in January was 2019, a year when prices declined slightly. The sales-to-active listings ratio now sits at 14%, confirming that we remain in a balanced market, but momentum is shifting.
Perhaps the biggest red flag is price movement. While the HPI benchmark price showed a slight increase in January, more immediate indicators tell a different story. Median prices dropped by $80,000, the largest single-month decline in 18 months, while average prices fell by $70,000, hitting their lowest level in two years. These sharp drops suggest that sellers may be adjusting expectations, while buyers hesitate to make moves in an uncertain environment.
So, what’s next? With sellers eager to offload properties and buyers waiting for more clarity on tariffs and interest rates, the spring market could be weaker than expected. Early February sales trends suggest a slower start, but as we approach the peak season, things could shift. Will prices stabilize, or are we heading into a prolonged downturn? Tune in as we analyze what’s happening in Vancouver real estate and where the market might be headed next.
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