Retired Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan–author of three recent books on the future of warfare–joins our hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to discuss how autonomous weapons (drones) are challenging our military assumptions, and their implications for Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific.

Mick draws lessons from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and asserts that drones don’t necessarily mean the obsolescence of current inventories of manned weapon systems, but will require significant cultural and organizational changes to integrate them into our strategies, tactics and force structure.

Mick considers the U.S. “Replicator” project to field drones at high volume, and the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command’s notion of turning the Taiwan Strait into a drone “hellscape” for any potential invasion. He also talks about how developing countries can leverage inexpensive drone technology to level the playing field against larger aggressors.

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You can also follow Mick Ryan’s substack, Futura Doctrina, a conversation about technology, ideas, people and their convergence in contemporary war and competition. Also covering issues related to the war in Ukraine, Chinese aggression against Taiwan and Indo-Pacific defence.

Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power.

Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

RAND’s senior behavioral scientist Todd Helmus joins Jim Carouso and Ray Powell to explain how China exploits the maritime “gray zone” to pursue its aggressive and expansionist policies without triggering open conflict.

They examine how China’s competitors have seen their sovereignty eroded and their influence wane by remaining passive in the face of gray-zone aggression. They discuss the crucial role of assertive transparency and affirmative engagement in illuminating these activities in order to counter them, while also building resiliency and international support against them.

Turning their attention to the South China Sea, they discuss how China has turned its coast guard into a large and highly capable paramilitary force, and has paired it with its maritime militia to pressure the Philippines into surrendering its own maritime rights. Meanwhile, the Philippines’ southeast Asian neighbors’ responses have ranged from muted to outwardly critical of Manila due to their fear of economic retaliation from Beijing.

They conclude by talking about how the U.S. and its allies need to develop comprehensive strategies to counter China’s gray-zone campaign before it achieves its expansionist objectives.

Read RAND’s work on gray-zone responses:

• Understanding and Countering China's Maritime Gray Zone Operations
• How the United States Can Support Allied and Partner Efforts to Counter China in the Gray Zone

Produced by IEJ Media ), sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power.

Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Ray and Jim welcome back one of their most popular guests, retired Rear Admiral Mike Studeman, to discuss his recent assertion that Beijing’s malign influence operations–which extend from hacking computer networks to undermining faith in institutions to altering the media landscape–have reached the point of constituting a ‘silent invasion’ of the U.S. homeland.

Mike discusses his documented concerns about the extraordinary case of Elon Musk, America’s most important industrialist whose core businesses also have deep dependencies on Beijing’s largesse, and who has also now become a major political figure. Mike answers questions about why he has raised alarms about Musk as being “compromised and co-opted” by America’s most powerful adversary.

Mike argues that America needs leaders who can lead a national conversation and “connect the dots” for the public so that Americans can understand the pervasive nature of the threat.

Ray and Jim welcome Colonel Rich Butler and Dr. Sheena Greitens to help us understand the readiness of China’s military for combat operations, and what that means for global security. They explain the contingencies the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is preparing for, from a cross-strait invasion of Taiwan to a South China Sea confrontation, and what lessons the PLA has learned from Russia’s conflict with Ukraine.

Colonel Butler and Dr. Greitens also discuss how China uses the PLA and non-traditional forces like the People’s Armed Police as coercive tools against its neighbors. They also weigh the sheer weight of China’s security forces against its blind spots—political control, corruption and inexperience in combat operations. They also consider China’s ongoing political and military corruption purges—and their impact on combat readiness.

They explain how China prioritizes the conquest of Taiwan for achieving its “national rejuvenation”, and what role coercion plays in achieving those goals, even while planning for the potential of a protracted conflict against the U.S. and implementing non-traditional security programs across the Indo-Pacific region.

Colonel Butler and Dr. Greitens unpack the problems the PLA faces in a cross-strait invasion scenario, and what problems a military blockade of the island might present. They talk through the military and economic challenges Taiwan faces, both in terms of food and energy security.

Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Randy Schriver joins Jim and Ray to discuss how the security policies pursued by Donald Trump’s second administration are likely to affect the U.S., its allies and the broader region.

Randy explains that while the first Trump administration may have featured certain splashy events and surprising rhetoric, real progress on policy was more evolutionary than revolutionary. For example, America’s Indo-Pacific alliances were actually strengthened despite confrontations over trade and defense burden-sharing.

He further discusses growing influence of economic nationalism on U.S. policy, and how the Australia-U.K.-U.S. (AUKUS) trilateral initiative presents both challenges and opportunities for the struggling American shipbuilding industry. The recently announced U.S.-Japan-South Korea and U.S.-Japan-Philippines trilaterals are also key regional pillars to build upon.

Randy touts the need to address the U.S. defense procurement process and industrial base to meet the challenge of a rapidly growing and increasingly aggressive People’s Republic of China.

Finally, Randy announces some exciting changes upcoming for the Project 2049 Institute, for which he is the Chairman of the Board.

U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel joins Jim and Ray for 2025's inaugural episode, in which he discusses why the alliance between the U.S. and Japan is critical to the security of both nations and of a vital but volatile region.

In his characteristically forthright style, he explains how the Japan alliance strengthens America's strategic position, especially as it has been increasing its investments in its own defense. Multilateral cooperation among allies--an alliance "latticework--is, he says, an asymmetric advantage for the U.S. to offset an increasingly aggressive but still largely isolated China.

Turning to economic issues, the ambassador asserts that trade imbalances don't tell the whole story, and that Japan is a major investor in the U.S. economy. Moreover, he makes the case that deterring China can't be seen solely in military terms but must consider economic statecraft as a key element of strategic power.

Ambassador Emanuel talks about the evolution and impact of 2024's two major trilateral summits--one between the U.S., Japan and South Korea, and the other between the U.S., Japan and the Philippines. He explains that Japan has had an important influence on building regional resilience against coercion and aggression through its defense and economic cooperation programs.

Finally, he explains how he used social media to influence the conversation in East Asia, supporting Japan while calling out China for its malign actions and misleading messages.

In this special year-end edition of the podcast, co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso reflect on most significant developments in the Indo-Pacific region throughout 2024 including the economic challenges faced by China amidst the consolidation of power by President Xi Jinping, and how concern over its increasing military power and aggression is strengthening the U.S. network of alliances. They also discuss the prospects for a grand U.S.-China deal in the upcoming Trump administration.

They talk about the most surprising developments of 2024, including the recent political upheaval in South Korea and the dramatic confrontations between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea.

They then review some of their favorite, most-viewed/most-heard, and most underrated episodes of the 2024, and give their Indo-Pacific "Person of the Year" nominees: Jim picked China's President Xi Jinping, while Ray chose the recently impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea and Philippine President Ferdinand "BongBong" Marcos, Jr.

They discuss surprises that may lie in wait for 2025, and what impact emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and autonomous weapons will have on the Indo-Pacific order.

Finally, they talk about what they’ve learned and most enjoyed in their first 9 months of podcasting.

E-mail us at indopacificpodcast@gmail.com with your questions and comments!

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Ray and Jim welcome Isaac Stone Fish to discuss why he believes companies that want to do business with China are being compelled to make hard choices due to the increasingly fraught relationship with the U.S. and the West.

Isaac explains how the ongoing economic decoupling with China has been driven in large part by Beijing’s own policies, and that this process has been accelerated since the COVID-19 outbreak. He asserts that U.S. political and business elites, in their enthusiasm for what China might have been, have instead strengthened its authoritarian model to the detriment of the West.

Isaac urges companies to understand the risks inherent in their exposure to China’s market, and explains some of the economic challenges Beijing faces moving forward. He also warns that conflict is a real possibility that must be factored in.