On October 30, US President Trump and China’s leader Xi Jinping met in Busan, South Korea. It was their first face-to-face meeting in 6 years. There was a lot at stake in this meeting for the US and China, as well as for the rest of the world. In my view, the outcome is best described as a fragile truce. The path forward for US-China relations remains uncertain – greater stability and predictability is possible, but not assured. Intense competition across several domains, especially technology, is likely.

Today’s episode focuses on the Trump-Xi summit and the future of US-China relations, featuring Mr. Dennis Wilder. Dennis is a senior fellow for the Initiative for U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues at Georgetown University, where he previously served as the managing director, and assistant professor of the practice in Asian studies in the School of Foreign Service. He served on President George W. Bush’s NSC first as director for China and then as senior director for Asian Affairs. He also had a distinguished career in the CIA, where he held many positions, the last of which was senior editor of the Presidential Daily Brief.

Timestamps:

[00:00] Introduction
[1:57] Trump-Xi Summit: A Win for China?
[09:03] Fact Sheet Discrepancies
[14:37] Trump Administration’s China Strategy
[16:47] Achieving Chinese Exceptionalism
[19:20] China’s Confidence and Potential Instability
[21:26] Why No Taiwan Mention?
[24:48] An Inflection Point for Greater Stability?
[27:50] Indo-Pacific View of the US-China Relationship

From October 20-23, the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party held its Fourth Plenum in Beijing, marking an important moment as the Party sets the direction for China’s development for the next five years. The session adopted recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan, endorsing Xi Jinping’s goals of high-quality development, scientific and technological self-reliance, and strengthening national security in response to rising global instabilities. The Central Committee also announced the replacement of 11 members, the highest personnel turnover since 2017 amid an ongoing anti-corruption purge in the military.

To discuss the plenum’s outcomes, we are joined by Jonathan Czin. Jonathan is a leading expert on Chinese politics and foreign policy. He holds the Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies and is a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution. He previously led the intelligence community’s analysis of Chinese politics and policy making at the CIA and also spent two years as director for China at the National Security Council during the Biden administration.

Timestamps:
[00:00] Start
[01:36] Why the Fourth Plenum Matters
[03:37] Key Takeaways: Policy Continuity and Political Purges
[05:07] Zhang Shengmin and Xi Jinping’s Military Ambitions
[09:23] Signals and Adjustments in Economic Planning
[11:56] Previewing the 15th Five-Year Plan
[13:33] Xi Jinping’s Growing Confidence
[17:42] Political Messaging and Choreography
[20:21] Language in the Communique: “Strategic Resolve”
[22:28] What to Expect from the Xi-Trump Summit
[26:38] Is Beijing Worried the Summit Could Backfire?

China’s ties with Southeast Asia states are increasingly consequential for regional stability and global geopolitics. Over the past two decades, China has become the region’s largest trading partner and a major source of investment and infrastructure financing. At the same time, China growing military presence and aggressive behavior in the South China Sea have caused anxiety and have prompted a number of Southeast Asian nations to seek closer security ties with the United States and other partners.

The Trump administration’s policies of imposing tariffs, reducing foreign assistance, and implementing stricter immigration regulations have begun to erode US influence across the region, further encouraging Southeast Asian countries to rely on each other and to diversify their relationships with external partners.

To discuss Beijing’s evolving approach to Southeast Asia and the efficacy of its policies, we are joined on the podcast today by Dr. Chong Ja Ian. He is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the National University of Singapore and a nonresident fellow at Carnegie China. Ian’s research focuses on Chinese politics, foreign policy, and US-China relations.

Timestamps
[00:00] Intro
[01:50] China’s Tools and Objectives in SEA
[03:02] Economic Relations with SEA
[05:52] Success and Failures of Beijing’s SEA Strategy
[07:47] Regional Media and Influence
[11:40] SEA Views on China: Consensus and Discord
[14:55] Regional Strategy Post-Trump
[18:22] SEA Reactions to China Taking Taiwan by Force
[22:40] Crisis Planning and How it Could Change
[24:10] Long-Term Outlooks for China-SEA Relations

In mid-September, while many China watchers were focused on the Xiangshan Forum, the Chinese military’s annual high-level security and defense convening in Beijing, another major annual meeting was being held by the Ministry of Public Security in the Chinese city of Lianyungang (2-2-3). The Lianyungang Forum dates to 2015 but was upgraded and renamed the Global Public Security Cooperation Forum in 2022 following Xi Jinping’s launch of the Global Security Initiative. This year it was attended by 2,000 participants from 120 countries, regions and international organizations. The theme was “Shaping Global Public Security Together: United Action to Tackle Diverse Threats.” As Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong made clear in his opening speech, China is advancing an alternative to the western-led security order.

Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens is a leading expert on Beijing’s push to reshape the global security order and promote China as a model and global security provider to developing countries. Sheena is an associate professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin where she directs UT’s Asia Policy Program and serves as editor-in-chief of the Texas National Security Review. She is also a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment of International Peace, and a visiting associate professor of research in Indo-Pacific security at the China Landpower Studies Center of the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute. Relevant to this episode’s discussion, Sheena recently published a co-authored report for the Carnegie Endowment of International Peace Carnegie titled “A New World Cop.”

Timestamps:
[00:00] Start
[02:30] The Global Security Initiative and Xi Jinping’s Grand Strategy
[05:22] Outcomes of the Global Public Security Cooperation Forum
[08:50] What Do Participant Countries Gain?
[12:23] How Do Recipient Countries Use Chinese Technologies?
[16:12] Countries Rejecting China's Surveillance Technologies
[21:49] China’s Rewriting of Global Norms
[28:18] Potential Policy Responses to the GSI

Since 1951, when Tibet was formally annexed into the People’s Republic of China, Tibet has been a battleground between China’s efforts to assert control and the Tibetan people’s struggle to preserve their cultural and religious identity. This past August, Xi Jinping made a surprise visit to Tibet, his second since becoming China’s top leader in 2012. Less than two months earlier, the Dalai Lama, now 90 years old, announced that his office, not China, would choose his successor when he passes. A few months before that, the Dalai Lama revealed in a memoir that he would reincarnate outside of China. The PRC insists that the next incarnation – the 15th Dalai Lama – will be born inside PRC territory and approved by the Chinese government.

What are Beijing’s interests in Tibet and how has Xi Jinping pursued them since coming to power? What is likely to occur after the Dalai Lama’s passing? I’m delighted to have as my guest today Tendor Dorjee. Tendor is an adjunct assistant professor of political science at Columbia University, a senior researcher at the Tibet Action Institute, and the inaugural Stephanie G Neuman Fellow at the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies. He recently co-authored an article in Foreign Affairs titled Beijing’s Dangerous Game in Tibet”.

Timestamps

[00:00] Start
[02:08] Beijing’s Key Interests in Tibet
[04:06] Xi Jinping’s Approach to Tibet
[07:00] Internal and External Drivers of Tibet Policy
[08:08] Xi’s Recent Visit to Tibet
[11:34] Infrastructure Developments and Expansionism
[15:27] Beijing’s Succession Plans and Tibetan Reactions to a Future Dalai Lama
[20:27] Risk of Unrest and Crackdowns
[25:43] Implications for Neighboring States

The United States and China are locked in a race for dominance in artificial intelligence, including its applications and diffusion. American and Chinese AI firms like OpenAI and DeepSeek respectively have captured global attention and major companies like Google and Microsoft have been actively investing in AI development. While the US currently boasts world-leading AI models, China is ahead in some areas of AI research and application. With the release of US and Chinese AI action plans in July, we may be on the cusp of a new phase in US-China AI competition.

Why is AI so important for a country’s global influence? What are the strengths of China’s AI strategy? And what does China’s new AI action plan tell us about its AI ambitions? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Owen Daniels. Owen is the Associate Director of Analysis at Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology and a Non-Resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council. His recently published article in Foreign Affairs co-authored with Hanna Dohmen -- titled China’s Overlooked AI Strategy -- provides insights into how Beijing is utilizing AI to gain global dominance and what the US can and should do to sustain and bolster its lead.

Timestamps

[00:00] Start
[02:05] US Policy Risks to Chinese AI Leadership
[05:28] Deepseek and Kimi’s Newest Models
[07:54] US vs. China’s Approach to AI
[10:42] Limitations to China’s AI Strategy
[13:08] Using AI as a Soft Power Tool
[16:10] AI Action Plans
[19:34] Trump’s Approach to AI Competition
[22:30] Can China Lead Global AI Governance?
[25:10] Evolving US Policy for Open Models

The United States and China wrapped up the third round of high-level trade negotiations earlier this week. American and Chinese negotiators met in Stockholm on July 28 and 29. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the talks as constructive and wide ranging. He acknowledged that an extension of the 90-day tariff pause was discussed but said that the final decision was up to President Trump.  As of today – August 1 – Trump has remained mum. The Chinese side’s readout was devoid of details, although China’s vice minister of commerce said that both countries would continue to push for an extension of the reciprocal tariffs and Chinese countermeasures.

How should we assess the dynamics in the trade talks, including the balance of leverage between Washington and Beijing? And how might the trade negotiations shape the future of the US-China relationship? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Dr. Scott Kennedy. Scott is senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[02:06] Lessons Learned from Trump’s First Administration

[05:20] Chinese Outlook on Future Economic Policy

[09:28] Who’s Winning the Trade War?

[14:30] China’s Reactions to Transshipment Provisions

[18:18] Bessent's Rebalancing Plans

[24:14] Challenges to Chinese Investment in the US

[29:15] China's Trade Deal Goals

South Korea and China have a complex relationship characterized by economic interdependence, strategic competition, and regional security concerns. Navigating this delicate balance has been a defining challenge for every South Korean president. Newly elected President Lee Jae Myung has assumed power at a time of increasing US-China strategic competition as well as uncertain global supply chains and growing threat from North Korea. Could this new administration mark a shift in Seoul’s approach to Beijing? Or will President Lee maintain strategies similar to that of President Yoon?

To discuss ROK-China relations, and President Lee’s approach to this intricate issue, we are joined on the podcast today by Dr. Ramon Pacheco-Pardo. He is a professor of international relations at King’s College London and the KF-VUB Korea Chair at the Center for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy in the Brussels School of Governance. He is also an adjunct fellow with the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the author of several books on the domestic affairs and foreign policy of South and North Korea.

Timestamps

[00:00] Start

[01:44] “[P]ragmatic diplomacy centered on national interests”

[05:06] State of Play for Sino-South Korean Relations

[09:56] Balancing Between the United States and China

[14:47] China Taking Advantage of US-ROK Frictions

[19:03] Economic Interdependence as a Leverage

[25:39] Xi Jinping Attending APEC South Korea 2025

[31:11] American Pressure on Allies to Protect Taiwan