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• Delayed Gratification
• Time Horizon
• Personal Responsbility
• Compounding

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• Second-Order Effects
• Mean Reversion
• Factor Investing

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Twitter Handle: @TreyHenninger

YouTube Channel: DIY Investing

Show Outline

• Selling Series
  • A lot of time is spent on buying stocks. Yet, almost just as important, if not more is knowing when to sell stocks.
  • I find this area relatively underexplored, so I want to begin a long-term series on selling stocks from the framework of a value investor.
  • Previously talked about selling in a single episode on Ep. 106
• Today’s focus: Strategy matters
  • There is no one-size fits all approach
  • How you buy stocks will influence how you sell them
  • Your portfolio allocation strategy will matter
  • THe number of stocks you review in a year will matter
  • Whether you plan to own a cash position or not will matter.
• Excluded from this series:
  • Won’t be discussing momentum investing
  • Won’t be discussing trading or technical analysis investing (except as a marginal part of value investing when relevant)
  • Entire focus assumes that you are a value investor of some sort (whether deep value, compounder, graham value, quality, etc…)
• Deep Value:
  • Buy at 2/3rds of value and sell at “full price”
• Compounders:
  • You want to hold for a long-time.
  • Sell when compounding ends, plateaus or you were wrong
• Net-Nets
  • Hold a year then reassess
• Waterfall Stocks:
  • Hold so long as dividend yield is sufficient to provide target return
• Dividend Growth Investing:
  • Buy companies that pay dividends and grow them and sell them when they cut or eliminate their dividends
• Buy and Hold
  • “Never sell”
  • Works for a subset of stocks
  • Tends to overlap well with compounders and Dividend Growth investing

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• Second-Order Effects
• Mean Reversion
• Factor Investing

If you enjoyed this podcast and found it helpful, please consider leaving me a rating and review. Your feedback helps me to improve the podcast and grow the show's audience.

Twitter Handle: @TreyHenninger

YouTube Channel: DIY Investing

Show Outline

• Today’s podcast will focus on a single precept: You can’t predict the future
• First and Second Order Effects
  • Margin of Safety
  • Preference for cash now vs cash later (Plays into want for profitable companies) Time value of money.
  • Growth is important because it can correct for mistakes, but you know you can’t predict it
  • Some of what you “know” about investing may not be true
  • Importance of Zero-Based Thinking (what is the best decision today based on what you know today)
    • Wrong because past price performance can’t predict the future (it may, but it may not)
    • Wrong because it assumes that winners will keep on winning and losers will keep on losing
  • • “Don’t catch a falling knife”
    • “Hold onto winners, trim your losers”
  • The central problem with rebalancing
  • • It is definitely true that successful rebalancing CAN add value
    • It is also true that it is IMPOSSIBLE to know if your rebalancing will be successful
    • How then do you behave? How do you invest in the face of uncertainty?
• • First order:
  • Second order:
• Investing in the face of uncertainty
• • You cannot assume business momentum. You plan for it and buy stocks you think will have it, but your strategy cannot assume it will continue.
  • You cannot assume reversion to the mean. You plan for it and buy cheap stocks because it offers the opportunity of reversion to the mean, but your strategy cannot assume stocks WILL mean revert in the time frame you want.
  • You cannot assume that growth will continue.
  • You cannot assume a specific growth target will be hit.
  • You cannot assume that your predictions about business quality will be better on company A than on company B.
• The only thing you can know to be true is that the future is uncertain.
  • I personally use some absolute rules (like no margin debt, no options, and no shorting). Not because they’re optimal, but because they limit my risk and allow me to take risks in other areas.
• • Some of your decisions will be a mistake. That doesn’t mean you don’t make a decision. Indecision is a decision.
  • Selling some winners may be correct and selling others may be a mistake. Your strategy needs to incorporate that understanding. “Absolute rules” can be helpful to limit mistakes, but they will inherently be suboptimal.
• What is my point:
  • It would be a mistake NOT to trim when I am given the opportunity to do so. Failing to take advantage of opportunities that ignore zero based thinking will result in me having lower returns across an investment lifetime.
  • You want to build a strategy that follows this precept: “If I lived my life 10,000 times, what strategy would result in a favorable outcome across the most possible lifetimes?”
  • Don’t optimize for the “perfect” scenario.
  • Don’t optimize for the “worst case” scenario.
  • Optimize for uncertainty. Prepare for the worse, plan for the best, and adjust daily.
• • There are aspects of my strategy that go against established norms. However, there are clear reasons for that. I know that I cannot predict the future.
  • Therefore, I am willing to sell or trim my winners when I believe it improves my potential returns and reduces my risk.

Summary:

• • You cannot predict the future.
  • Be more humble.

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• Look-Through Earnings
• Dollar Cost Averaging
• Earnings Yield
• Opportunity Cost

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Twitter Handle: @TreyHenninger

YouTube Channel: DIY Investing

• Dead Money
• Opportunity Cost
• Time is Money
• Intrinsic Value
• Compounding

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Twitter Handle: @TreyHenninger

YouTube Channel: DIY Investing

• “If you remember only one thing today: Time is Money”
• What is Dead Money?
  • Any asset you own that is not growing intrinsic value over a period of time.
  • The focus here is on the fundamentals of the business. NOT the stock price. We can’t predict stock prices. We’re not going to try.
• Why is this a problem?
  • The longer you hold a dead money position the worse off you are.
• Principle: Time x Position Sizing x Expected Return of Alternatives = Lost value
  • By using this formula you can anticipate how much exposure you have to dead money losses.
• The Solution:
  • The impact is large (Big “lost value” bucket) [>> 1%]
  • The likelihood of success is high (Big difference in expected return between opportunities)
    • At least 10%
  • Passivity is better than action. Action leads to errors. Always remember that you had good reasons for your original buy decisions.

Time is Money! Investors lose value on any asset they own that is not growing intrinsic value over time. This episode provides value investors with my solution on how to optimize their portfolio in the face of dead money assets and potential opportunities

• Opportunity Cost
• Alpha
• Superpower of Incentives
• Competitive Advantages
• Process vs Results

If you enjoyed this podcast and found it helpful, please consider leaving me a rating and review. Your feedback helps me to improve the podcast and grow the show's audience.

Twitter Handle: @TreyHenninger

YouTube Channel: DIY Investing

• Choosing an investment manager is a lot like choosing a stock
  • Don’t invest in anything you don’t understand - this includes managers
  • What is their process?
  • How do they earn alpha? Do you need alpha?
• What are your financial needs?
  • Wealth preservation?
  • Wealth Growth?
  • Do you need alpha?
    • Not every manager can provide alpha.
    • Not every manager seeks alpha
    • Not every investors NEEDS alpha
• Value
  • Cost - How are they paid? What is the expense structure? How does it compare to alternatives?
  • Management Fees
  • Performance Fees
  • Next podcast will be a whole podcast on fee structure, so I’ll limit my discussion on it here.
• Growth
  • Investment managers inherently benefit from growing AUM. This is unavoidable. Regardless of pay structure. However, you want to understand what drives them. Is investing a passion or a money seeking endeavor?
    • Are they trying to grow AUM?
    • Do they plan to shut down growth at some point?
• Quality
  • Competitive advantages?
    • How are they different from other investors?
  • Communication?
    • How do they communicate with clients?
    • Do you understand their process? Are you comfortable with them?
  • Style
    • Size of stocks
    • Liquidity
    • Value vs Growth vs Quality?
    • Overlooked companies?
    • Index hugging?
    • Concentration vs Diversification
• Custom Portfolios vs Investment Fund
  • Some managers will setup a customized portfolio just for you
  • Or do you simply want to own a portion of a mutual fund or hedge fund.
• Past Performance - Luck vs Skill
  • It is difficult to analyze a portfolio manager based on past performance
  • Instead, focus on their process.
    • If you understand their process you can potentially understand the odds of future outperformance (if you even need outperformance)

Choosing an external investment manager for your wealth is a difficult decision. In this episode, I outline the key concepts you should consider when evaluating someone to be your personal portfolio manager.

• Stress Testing
• Time Horizon
• Stoicism

If you enjoyed this podcast and found it helpful, please consider leaving me a rating and review. Your feedback helps me to improve the podcast and grow the show's audience.

Twitter Handle: @TreyHenninger

YouTube Channel: DIY Investing

The full show notes for this episode are available at https://www.diyinvesting.org/Episode130

• Stress Testing - Bankruptcy Risk?
  • Goal: Survive
  • Stress test businesses not stocks
• Focus on Fundamentals
  • Long-term is where all of the value is at
  • The next 1 or 2 years is only 10-20% of the value most of the time.
• War somewhere is not inherently a crisis for your portfolio
  • Are your specific businesses being affected?
  • Land war in your country?
  • Destruction of infrastructure owned by your companies?
  • Sanctions against your companies?
  • There has been almost constant war for the entirety of the last 100 years somewhere in the world
• Doomsday Scenarios
  • It is usually worth betting on optimistic outcomes
  • If you're wrong, you likely won't be around to deal with it. (Nuclear war)

The Russian Invasion of Ukraine has created a situation where three crisis grip the world: War, Inflation, and COVID-19. How should investors think and act during such a crisis?

Stress test your portfolio. Focus on the Fundamentals. Does the war affect you directly? Avoid doomsday thinking.