Jim and Ray welcome Thailand’s renowned scholar and journalist Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak to help them understand why the past quarter century has seen Thailand’s politics in a state of near-constant turmoil, and what the prospects are for the years ahead.

Dr. Thitinan explains how the conservative forces of Thailand’s monarchy, judiciary and military have used their institutional power to sideline repeated electoral victories by populist and reformist groups. He discusses how the one-time outsider Thaksin Shinawatra has overcome being deposed by military coup to return to power behind the scenes with the election of his daughter Paetongtarn as prime minister.

He also unpacks Thailand’s political youth movement, and how it actually won the most votes in the last election but was prevented from taking power by an alliance of the country’s traditional powers and Thaksin. He explains how this young party–now called the People’s Party–remains a potent force.

Thailand’s turmoil has led to economic stagnation as foreign investment has shied away from the uncertainty of its politics, but Dr. Thitinan believes stability in the medium term should usher in a period of growth.

Geopolitically, Thailand has been among America’s least reliable allies, he contends, because its anti-democratic forces have driven it in the direction of more autocratic regimes like China’s. Meanwhile, the Thai government faces pressure from Beijing to send Uyghur refugees back to China, which is opposed by the U.S.

Thailand is also dealing with threats to its security from across the border, where Myanmar’s civil war threatens to spill over.

Dr. Thitinan is a professor of international relations and international political economy at Bangkok-based Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Political Science and a senior fellow at its Institute of Security and International Studies. He is also a senior advisor with our podcast’s sponsor, BowerGroupAsia.

Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power.

Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

"It's my belief that the incoming administration has chosen USAID...to curb-stomp it to death as a way to send a message to the rest of the federal bureaucracy." -- Michael Schiffer

As Washington DC is in turmoil over the drastic changes to the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), Jim and Ray welcome its former Asia Bureau Assistant Administrator Michael Schiffer to explain what exactly USAID does and the potential impacts of these changes.

Michael argues that USAID is not just a charity organization but plays a crucial role in supporting U.S. foreign policy. Established in 1961 during the height of the Cold War, he explains that USAID has long been considered essential for America’s national security.

Against charges that USAID’s budget lacks oversight, Michael describes the agency’s bipartisan congressional oversight process. He also explains how the once fully independent agency was legislatively rolled into the State Department in the late 1990s, though still with some degree of operational autonomy.

While agreeing that a thoughtful review of the USAID structure and budget is called for, he contends that the current pause in USAID funding creates a vacuum for other nations–particularly China–to exploit by moving quickly to backfill the gaps in support left by American absence. This allows Beijing to say that America is an unreliable partner.

Follow Michael Schiffer at his page at Justsecurity.

Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power.

Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Ray and Jim welcome Justin Bassi, former Australian National Security Advisor and current Director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI). Justin explains what the “Quad” grouping between the U.S., Australia, Japan and India means for Indo-Pacific security, stability and prosperity–on issues from supply chain resiliency, cyber security and maritime security.

Justin makes the case that given the threat from China, the Quad needs to mature so as to overtly include security as a key component of its remit, despite India’s status as a non-aligned nation. He also believes that developing a range of other minilateral groupings like the so-called “Squad” (U.S.-Japan-Australia-Philippines) are crucial.

Our guest addresses the tension between the Quad and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which desires “centrality” in Indo-Pacific affairs, and explains why the Quad can provide important alternatives to countering China’s growing influence across the region.

Justin turns to the U.S.-Australia alliance, and how Canberra’s approach to China has garnered respect in Washington. He delves into how the countries need to work together on issues such as defense and cyber security.

Follow Justin at the ASPI web site or on X.

Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power.

Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.