In this thought-provoking episode, we're joined by renowned Silicon Valley entrepreneur and defense reform advocate Steve Blank in a sweeping conversation on Pentagon innovation, the U.S.-China technological rivalry, and what it takes for democracies to outpace authoritarian competitors.

Key Highlights & Takeaways:

Diagnosing U.S. Innovation Stagnation: Steve dissects why the once dominant U.S. defense sector, long-dominated by the big “primes”, got overtaken by bureaucratic inertia—contrasted with China’s highly focused whole-of-nation approach. He examines how factors such as lobbying, revolving doors, and outmoded acquisition systems have played their parts in hampering adaptation to new threats.

Hacking for Defense Origins: Steve unpacks how the “get out of the building” lean startup method moved from Silicon Valley to challenging national security problem-solving, birthing the global Hacking for Defense movement that started at Stanford but is now in dozens of universities worldwide.

From “Innovation Theater” to Outcomes: The conversation critiques the proliferation of “incubators” unconnected to real acquisition, and highlights how meaningful reform only comes when new tech is linked to actual defense deployment.

What’s Changing: Blank describes major reforms currently underway under the new Trump Administration: scrapping legacy acquisition hurdles, empowering innovation-focused leadership, expanding the Defense Innovation Unit, and setting new strategic priorities.

Politics and Semiconductors: Steve provides a unique take on the CHIPS Act, Taiwan’s semiconductor leverage, and the evolution of U.S. “industrial policy” as exemplified by the U.S. government’s taking of a direct stake in the Intel Corporation.

Practical Advice: Steve and the hosts help surface actionable lessons: embrace private-sector speed, connect innovation directly to field outcomes, and learn from adversaries who now copy America’s best ideas and occasionally outpace them.

SeaLight Targeted by Beijing: Steve and Ray banter about how Ray’s innovation project inspired by Hacking for Defense blossomed into the SeaLight phenomenon, and how its success in illuminating China’s “gray zone” activities got both of them targeted by Beijing’s propaganda machine.

This essential episode illuminates how democracies can survive and thrive amid global tech rivalry, and what must change if the U.S. hopes to remain a leader in security and defense innovation.

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In this critical episode, host Jim Carouso welcomes two leading experts on the Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) agreement to examine whether the landmark trilateral security partnership can deliver on its promises four years after its launch. Charlie Edel, inaugural Australia Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and Abe Denmark, senior fellow at CSIS and a former DOD official who helped implement AUKUS, join to discuss their new report, "The AUKUS Inflection: Seizing the Opportunity to Deliver Deterrence."

The conversation dives deep into five fundamental challenges threatening AUKUS’ success:

• Submarine production bottlenecks plague the U.S. industrial base, with maintenance backlogs keeping 25% of attack submarines out of the water.

• Sovereignty questions have emerged as Washington reportedly seeks Australian operational commitments for future contingencies.

• Australia faces the massive challenge of building a nuclear submarine workforce from scratch—requiring 20,000 new skilled workers in a country with virtually no civilian nuclear industry.

• AUKUS “Pillar 2” technology cooperation lacks focus and marquee deliverables despite bureaucratic progress on export controls and information sharing.

•⁠⁠ Timeline pressures mount as critics question whether AUKUS capabilities will arrive too late for current deterrence needs, with Australian submarine construction not beginning until 2040.

The experts propose concrete solutions: appointing AUKUS special representatives reporting directly to leaders in all three countries; creating an AUKUS visa system for seamless researcher mobility; establishing trilateral congressional oversight mechanisms; producing annual progress reports for transparency and accountability; and concentrating Pillar 2 efforts on autonomy, long-range strike and integrated missile defense rather than spreading resources across quantum computing and other emerging technologies that lawmakers struggle to understand.

Denmark emphasizes that AUKUS should be viewed as additive rather than subtractive to existing capabilities, with Australian maintenance facilities and industrial contributions helping get more U.S. submarines operational faster. The discussion also touches on recent diplomatic engagements, including Australian Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles' meetings in Washington amid ongoing U.S. reviews of the partnership.

Both experts stress that while AUKUS faces significant implementation challenges, failure would damage U.S. credibility, weaken deterrence, and embolden adversaries. Success requires immediate course corrections, increased funding, and sustained political commitment across all three democracies to deliver meaningful capabilities for Indo-Pacific security.

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In the milestone 100th episode of "Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?", co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso celebrate their podcast’s century mark with a fast-paced, insightful, and at times humorous look back at some of their most memorable moments, guests, and listener interactions. Without a guest this week, Ray and Jim turn the spotlight on themselves, their audience, their incredible slate of past guests, and a region that keeps changing the strategic map.

The hosts set the tone for a reflective and dynamic show, diving into listener emails and social media comments that illustrate the podcast’s loyal following from locations across the globe. Ray and Jim revisit some of the most interesting, provocative, quirky and timely lines from prior guests--including former US National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster, U.S. Pacific Air Forces Commander General Kevin Schneider, former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, President Surangel Whipps of Palau, former U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Commander Admiral Phil Davidson, and sitting Philippine Secretary of Defense Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro--challenging each other to recall who said what and why those remarks matter in today’s Indo-Pacific landscape.

A central theme is the evolving nature of U.S. strategy, from discussions of "spheres of influence" and the shift in national security focus to debates over U.S. credibility and engagement in regions beyond the Indo-Pacific. The hosts analyze how once-standard priorities such as the rules-based order and extended U.S. presence are now questioned domestically and abroad. Listener comments prompt discussion of perceptions of America across the region, concerns over interference, and the shifting balance of great power influence. The episode highlights President Whipps’ steadfast support for Taiwan in the face of Chinese economic inducements--a striking example of Indo-Pacific agency and risk-taking in the current geopolitical climate.

Memorable moments include insights from Secretary Teodoro on the critical role of the rules-based order for smaller states, self-deprecating tales of military karaoke anxiety from General Schneider, and a glancing critique of U.S. foreign policy “whiplash,” recalling both Afghanistan and Vietnam withdrawals. The podcast’s ability to draw high-profile guests and engage in candid, sometimes irreverent dialogue is evident as the hosts reminisce. Woven through the humor and storytelling is a serious undercurrent about U.S. credibility, PRC aggression, alliance management, and the centrality of the Indo-Pacific in global affairs.

The hosts close with tributes to listeners, their inimitable producer, Ian Ellis-Jones, and their gratitude for reaching 100 episodes amidst rapidly growing listenership--now surpassing 40,000 subscribers across all platforms. As always, we encourage feedback and celebrate our incredible audience, and promise to continue featuring the perspectives and stories that matter most to Indo-Pacific watchers.

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In this compelling episode, co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome lead global security analyst for Washington Post Intelligence Josh Rogin, who explores the escalating tensions and complexities behind the dramatic recent breakdown in U.S.-India relations. The episode zeroes in on the significant diplomatic and very personal rift that has emerged between the two leaders, Donald Trump and Narendra Modi, and unpacks the broader strategic implications for Indo-Pacific stability.

Rogin gives a reporter’s analysis of the core issues driving the U.S.-India split, including Prime Minister Modi’s recent trip to Beijing for meetings with some of America’s biggest rivals. This shift signals India’s resistance to U.S. pressure for a trade deal it deems unfavorable. Despite Modi’s previous close rapport with President Trump, contentious issues—such as Trump’s tariff threats and bold proclamations about his role in India's recent conflict with Pakistan—have frozen negotiations and strained bilateral ties to the breaking point.

The discussion highlights the internal U.S. political dynamics behind the breakdown, pointing out the absence of India experts in the president’s inner circle and the dominance of transactional diplomacy focused on short-term deals rather than sustained strategic partnerships. Rogin emphasizes that the rupture is deeply personal between Trump and Modi, with consequences extending beyond bilateral relations to affect the entire Indo-Pacific geopolitical landscape.

Listeners gain valuable insights into how tariff policies, trade conflicts, and diplomatic miscommunications have undermined 25 years of efforts to integrate India more closely with Western alliances. The episode also examines how this strain jeopardizes multilateral cooperation frameworks like the Quad, complicating efforts to present a united front against China’s growing influence in the region.

The hosts take advantage of Josh’s long experience covering Japan to explore Tokyo’s leadership challenges in sustaining regional cooperation within the Quad framework and balancing domestic political pressures with larger strategic goals.

This episode delivers a nuanced and timely examination of why the U.S.-India relationship is vital for Indo-Pacific security, trade, and diplomacy—the potential unraveling of which could have profound global repercussions. Ideal for policy experts, business leaders, and anyone interested in international relations, this episode offers a thoughtful analysis of the personal, political, and strategic forces shaping the future of U.S.-India ties and the broader Indo-Pacific region.

Tune in for an engaging conversation that unpacks the personal disputes and political complexities defining one of the most critical alliances of the 21st century.

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In this deep-dive episode, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso are joined by Matthew Zolnowski, former Special Advisor at the U.S. Department of Defense and President of Greyfriars LLC, for an expert exploration of critical minerals and rare earth elements in the context of U.S.-China strategic competition. As tensions escalate in the Indo-Pacific, they examine why these "rocks" are essential building blocks for both military weapon systems and the civilian economy.

Critical Minerals vs. Rare Earths: Understanding the Difference

Matt breaks down the distinction between critical minerals (50+ commodities spanning the periodic table from antimony to zirconium) and rare earth elements (those mysterious bottom rows of the periodic table you never had to learn). He explains China's dominant position in heavy rare earth processing, particularly for permanent magnets used in defense applications, while noting that light rare earths like cerium and lanthanum—used in petroleum refining and glass polishing—remain more accessible from domestic sources like California's Mountain Pass mine.

Stockpiling, Strategy, and Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

The discussion reveals concerning gaps in U.S. defense procurement, including how electronic components bypass normal sourcing requirements, allowing Chinese rare earth magnets into submarines through hard drives, while direct magnet purchases require allied sourcing. Zolnowski details the $2 billion stockpile expansion and explains how stockpiles "buy time" rather than widgets—bridging the gap between crisis onset and Defense Production Act responses.

Industrial Policy vs. Market Forces

Ray and Jim probe the tension between America's traditional free-market approach and emerging industrial policy, examining deals like the MP Materials contract with its $150 million heavy rare earth separation line and EBITDA guarantees. Matt argues this represents uncharted territory, fundamentally breaking with traditional government-industry relationships as the U.S. grapples with China's strategic dominance in processing and price manipulation.

Australia, Allies, and Alternative Strategies

The hosts explore why U.S.-Australia collaboration on critical minerals has remained limited despite Australia's "periodic table on a plate" capabilities, with Zolnowski noting regulatory barriers that only recently opened Defense Production Act eligibility to Australian companies. He advocates for commodity-specific strategies rather than broad critical minerals policies, suggesting successful models like heavy mineral sands operations that diversify beyond single-commodity dependence.

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In this urgent bonus episode, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso return to discuss the sharp re-escalation at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea following the highly publicized Chinese naval collision at Scarborough Shoal on August 11, 2025. Drawing from satellite imagery, open-source information, and media reports, they analyze China’s deployment of an armed maritime “swarm” near the BRP Sierra Madre, including coast guard cutters, maritime militia vessels, and rigid-hulled inflatable boats (RHIBs) equipped with mounted weapons.

China’s Escalation and Swarming Tactics

Ray details how, just a day after the collision, China shifted significant assets from Mischief Reef to Second Thomas Shoal, amassing a force that now includes coast guard ships, maritime militia vessels, and armed RHIBs maneuvering alarmingly close to the Philippine military outpost. This “swarming” not only serves as a physical blockade but also as psychological intimidation through water cannon drills and propaganda operations.

Historical and Strategic Context

The BRP Sierra Madre has symbolized Philippine sovereignty at the shoal since being deliberately grounded in 1999, which lies within the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone. Despite China’s extensive militarization of neighboring Mischief Reef and other features, they have yet to dislodge this single ship—a continuous thorn in Beijing’s nine-dash line claims and a longtime flashpoint for maritime confrontation.

Provocation, Deterrence, and International Implications

Jim and Ray explore the strategic calculus behind China’s move, interpreting it as a probe aimed at provoking a Philippine misstep to justify more forceful measures, such as seizure or siege of the outpost. Philippine forces remain strictly instructed to exercise restraint, aware of the potentially explosive consequences. The episode places these events within a broader geopolitical framework, including rising tensions in U.S.-Taiwan relations, the recent Trump-Putin summit in Anchorage, and emerging uncertainties in U.S. alliances across Asia.

What’s Next: Risks and Responses

The hosts weigh the possibility of China demanding new concessions to allow future Philippine resupply missions, emphasizing that a full siege would be catastrophic and globally indefensible. Given the rusted state of the Sierra Madre and its irreplaceable symbolic value, any disruption to resupply could be a tipping point. They also assess the credibility of U.S. treaty commitments and freedom of navigation operations as signals of deterrence or escalation.

Anecdote on Summit Diplomacy

On a lighter note, Ray offers a “there I was” story from President Obama’s 2016 visit to Vietnam, where a meticulously planned official lunch was upended for an impromptu meal with Anthony Bourdain, which became the headline for the visit.

Why Listen?

A definitive update and expert analysis on the mounting crisis in the South China Sea, China’s maritime gray-zone tactics and their implications for Philippine sovereignty, and Indo-Pacific alliances and security dynamics.

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In this must-listen episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Arthur Sinodinos, Australia’s former Ambassador to the United States and key figure in the Australia-United Kingdom-United States (AUKUS) security pact, to get the exclusive inside story on how this landmark agreement came to be, how they dealt with fallout from capitals in China, France, and Southeast Asia, and why this agreement is a strategic game-changer for the Indo-Pacific region and global security.

AUKUS Origins & Negotiations: Ambassador Sinodinos takes listeners behind the scenes, sharing firsthand accounts of the tense and complex negotiations that led to the historic AUKUS pact. Learn how shifting geopolitics, submarine technology, and strategic urgency propelled Australia to pursue nuclear-powered submarines, pivoting away from a French deal to partner with the US and UK.

The Political Hurdles and Breakthroughs: Hear exclusive details on the US administration’s priorities—affordability, bipartisan support, and non-proliferation—and the roles played by world leaders in making AUKUS a reality. Sinodinos delves into how the agreement was shaped amidst the skepticism, and how subsequent legislative reforms have already boosted technology sharing and industrial collaboration among the allies.

Regional and Global Impact: This episode addresses the shockwaves AUKUS sent through the Indo-Pacific and beyond: the diplomatic fallout with France, reactions from China and ASEAN countries, and the challenges of keeping such a monumental agreement secret until the last moment. Sinodinos also discusses the "Pillar Two" focus on advanced capabilities like AI, quantum, and cyber, adding another level of strategic cooperation.

The Future of AUKUS and Defence Policy: The conversation explores ongoing debates in Australia—including headwinds from prominent critics, questions about US commitment, and concerns about defence spending thresholds. Sinodinos assesses the credibility of America’s promises to deliver nuclear submarines and outlines the pressure both countries face to stay on schedule and deliver strategic value.

Personal Insights from Washington During Crisis: Discover what it was like running the Australian embassy in Washington D.C. during the COVID-19 pandemic, the tumultuous 2020 US election, and the January 6th Capitol riot. Sinodinos candidly reflects on bridging cultural divides, correcting Australian misconceptions about America, and what makes the US-Australia partnership resilient through political and economic shocks.

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In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and James Carouso interview Indonesian international law scholar Aristyo Darmawan about President Prabowo Subianto's transformative foreign policy during his first six months in office. The discussion reveals a dramatic shift in Indonesia's strategic positioning as the nation balances between major powers while pursuing ambitious economic goals.

Darmawan highlights Indonesia's controversial decision to join BRICS, making it the first Southeast Asian nation to become a full member. This move reflects Prabowo's pragmatic approach to achieving his ambitious 8% economic growth target and funding expensive social programs like free nutritious meals for schoolchildren. The conversation explores Indonesia's surprising recognition of "overlapping claims" with China in the South China Sea through a joint development agreement - a decision that shocked foreign ministry officials and potentially signals implicit recognition of Beijing's nine-dash line claims.

The episode examines Indonesia's delicate balancing act between U.S. and Chinese interests, including the recent tariff negotiations with the Trump administration that reduced tariffs from 32% to 19%. However, this deal came with significant concessions, including commitments to purchase American aircraft and remove trade barriers. The discussion reveals how public sentiment, particularly regarding the Palestinian conflict, influences Indonesian perceptions of the United States and benefits China's regional standing.

Darmawan emphasizes Prabowo's highly personalized, top-down foreign policy approach, which has bypassed traditional bureaucratic channels and created uncertainty about Indonesia's strategic objectives. This "merry-go-round diplomacy" shows high activity but unclear goals, contrasting with previous administrations' more structured approaches.

The conversation also addresses Indonesia's evolving role within ASEAN, its cautious stance on security groupings like AUKUS, and the challenges in its relationship with Australia. Aristyo, Ray, and Jim also discuss how Chinese propaganda efforts and the reduction of U.S. information initiatives like Radio Free Asia have shifted regional narratives.

👉 Follow Aristyo's analysis on LinkedIn and X (@aristioo) for ongoing commentary on Indonesian foreign policy and international law.

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