In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome Peter Mattis, President of the Jamestown Foundation and former CIA analyst, to dissect the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) "political warfare" against Taiwan. Mattis argues this is not merely diplomatic maneuvering, but "United Front work playing out on a global scale" - a comprehensive campaign to reshape the international order by recreating China’s domestic political controls abroad.​

War by Other Means

Mattis grounds the political warfare concept in George Kennan’s Cold War definition: the logical application of Clausewitz's doctrine in peacetime. For Beijing, unification is a political objective requiring total control over Taiwan’s social, economic, and political life - goals that military force alone cannot secure. The CCP seeks to "pull in" global interests, ensuring they are mediated through Beijing rather than through alliances or international law.​

The View from Taiwan

For the Taiwanese, this warfare is felt on a spectrum. It ranges from the overt "gray zone" harassment of military aircraft and sand dredgers to the psychological grinding of CCP-aligned media narratives. These narratives are designed to paint the U.S. as unreliable and unification as inevitable. Mattis specifically highlights the corrosive effect of espionage, noting that every spy scandal erodes the critical trust necessary for Taiwan’s own bureaucracy and its security partners.​

United Front: A Global Dragnet

A key mechanism discussed is the "Council for the Promotion of the Peaceful Reunification of China," which operates chapters globally, including in the U.S. and the Philippines. Mattis explains how these groups mobilize diaspora communities, often hijacking the voices of pragmatic businesspeople, to influence local politicians. He cites the recent indictment of former New York state official Linda Sun as a prime example of how these influence operations effectively bury engagement with Taiwan inside democratic institutions without leaving a public trace.​

The Japan Example & Global Signaling

When Japan’s Prime Minister recently called a Taiwan contingency an "existential threat," China responded with fierce rhetoric and economic coercion. Mattis explains this reaction was double-edged: it aimed to punish Tokyo, but also served as a signal to the "Malaysias and Indonesias" of the region. The message is clear: if Beijing can inflict pain on a major power like Japan, smaller nations should fear the consequences of stepping out of line.​

The Democratic Deficit

Why do democracies struggle to push back? Mattis argues our institutions are too siloed: the military ignores non-kinetic threats, diplomats fear rocking the boat, and law enforcement is jurisdiction-bound. China exploits these seams to operate without consequence. Mattis suggests democracies must stop looking for "symmetric" responses - which often don't exist - and instead pursue asymmetric, disproportionate measures to re-establish deterrence and uncertainty for Beijing.​

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In this special live pod, Ray and Jim were joined by two distinguished guests: Former Japanese Ambassador to Australia Shingo Yamagami and Bonnie Glaser, Director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund of the U.S. Together, they unpack China's escalating diplomatic offensive against Japan following PM Sanae Takaichi's recent statements about Taiwan.​

What Sparked the Crisis

Ep. 114 centers on Takaichi's remarks in the Japanese Diet, where she responded to a hypothetical question about a Taiwan blockade scenario. She stated that if China imposed a blockade around Taiwan and the U.S. intervened, Japan could classify the situation as an "existence-threatening situation" under its national security legislation-potentially allowing deployment of Japan's Self-Defense Forces. Shingo emphasized this was not a policy change but a restatement of Japan's longstanding legal framework established a decade ago. Nevertheless, Beijing has reacted fiercely, labeling her comments an "unacceptable intervention" in China's domestic affairs.​

China's Strategic Calculus

Bonnie explained that China's strong reaction stems from multiple factors: Xi Jinping's perceived loss of face after meeting Takaichi at the APEC summit, the 80th anniversary of WW2 amplifying anti-Japanese narratives, and concerns about Japan's military buildup in its Southwest Islands. China's broader message, she notes, is "kill the chicken to scare the monkey"-punishing Japan to deter other nations from challenging Beijing's red lines on Taiwan. China is also testing whether the United States will stand firmly behind its allies, seeking to drive wedges in the U.S.-Japan and other alliances.​

The Stakes for Japan and the Region

Shingo underscored Taiwan's vital strategic importance to Japan. If Taiwan falls under CCP control, the entire East China Sea would become contested territory, potentially forcing U.S. forces to retreat from Okinawa and fundamentally weakening Japan's defense posture. As former Prime Minister Abe famously stated: "A Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency." Shingo also discussed the shocking details about a Chinese consul general's social media post threatening that Takaichi's "dirty neck will be chopped off"-unprecedented diplomatic intimidation that has only strengthened Japanese public support for the new prime minister, whose approval ratings have surged into the mid-70s.​

The One China Policy vs. One China Principle

The discussion clarifies a critical distinction often misunderstood: The U.S. "One China policy" and those of other Western nations are fundamentally different from China's "One China principle." Neither the U.S. nor Japan has ever agreed that Taiwan is part of China-they merely "acknowledged" or "understood and respected" Beijing's position. China is now aggressively pushing countries to abandon their individual policies and adopt its principle, which holds Taiwan as an "inalienable" part of China.​

Looking Ahead

Both guests anticipate a prolonged chill in China-Japan relations. However, Shingo noted that China's economic vulnerabilities limit its coercion options-Beijing needs Japanese investment for its struggling economy. If Takaichi maintains her popularity and secures a strong political mandate, China may eventually be forced to engage with her government, as it did with the long-serving Abe administration. Glaser warns that China sees opportunity in a perceived U.S. decline and will continue pressuring allied coalitions, making unity among democratic partners more essential than ever.​

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In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome Dr. Alvin Camba, a sociologist who studies Southeast Asian political economies, China relations, and critical mineral supply chains. Camba, author of the New America article "The Jakarta Model is No Blueprint," critiques Indonesia's export ban on raw nickel and incentives for domestic refining, which have driven economic growth and positioned the country as a key EV battery supplier but have also resulted in severe human and environmental costs.​​

Growth at what cost? Camba explains the "Jakarta model” - policies forcing mining firms to sell domestically, spurring smelters and industrial parks but creating oligopsonies where refiners dictate low prices, triggering a "race to the bottom" in mining practices. This has led to widespread environmental damage like air pollution, acid leakage, water contamination, land grabs, and health issues, including rising asthma and cancer rates near facilities since 2019, while workers endure 10-12 hour shifts over six-day weeks.​

Impressive parks, hidden harms: Inside sites like those in Sulawesi, visitors see advanced infrastructure with airports, ports, hotels, and thousands of workers, often funding local clinics and schools, which sustains public support despite scandals. Yet, mining outside these parks produces tailings dumps and forest clearance, while smelters emit pollutants into the air and rivers; in Kalimantan, bauxite processing creates radioactive red mud waste.​

Global copycats and Western challenges: Countries like Namibia, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, and the Philippines eye the model for capital influx, often ignoring downsides amid weakened environmental oversight and political ties to Chinese joint ventures dominating smelters. Camba urges slower development with strong regulations, consultations, and transparency; for the West, building refining capacity requires market incentives to counter China's cheap, dirty dominance, with short-term reserves bridging gaps amid U.S.-China standoffs over rare earths and semiconductors.​

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In this episode, host Ray Powell sits down with Dr. Lailufar Yasmin, a renowned political scientist at the University of Dhaka, to unpack Bangladesh's dramatic recent political crisis and explore why what happens in this densely populated South Asian nation matters to the broader Indo-Pacific regional stability.

Recorded just one day after Bangladesh's International Crimes Tribunal sentenced former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to death in absentia for crimes against humanity--this conversation provides crucial context for understanding a nation in transition. Powell and Dr. Yasmin discuss the uprising that toppled Hasina's government, the interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, and the geopolitical implications for great power competition in South Asia.

Dr. Yasmin explains how the July 2024 student protests escalated into a nationwide uprising after Hasina's government responded with lethal force, killing over 1,400 protesters. The movement, known as the "July Uprising," ultimately forced Hasina to flee to India on August 5, 2024, ending her 15-year authoritarian rule. The conversation explores how Hasina transformed from a democracy icon into an increasingly autocratic leader who rigged elections, suppressed opposition, and dismantled democratic institutions.

The episode delves into the "July Charter," a reform blueprint calling for constitutional changes including a bicameral parliament, proportional representation, prime ministerial term limits, and restoration of the caretaker government system. Dr. Yasmin discusses the upcoming February 2026 referendum and elections, explaining the challenges of ensuring credible democratic transition amid deep political divisions, the banning of the Awami League political party, and security concerns.

The conversation reveals how India's strong historical support for Hasina and the Awami League—rooted in India's assistance during Bangladesh's 1971 War of Independence—has created tension following her ouster. Dr. Yasmin describes India's initial disinformation campaigns falsely blaming Pakistani intelligence for the uprising, and how the interim government's engagement with China has also caused concern in New Delhi. She argues that Bangladesh must pursue an independent foreign policy that serves its national interests rather than simply accommodating regional powers.

The discussion also provides essential historical context, tracing Bangladesh's origins from the 1971 Liberation War when East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) fought for independence from West Pakistan, resulting in genocide that killed an estimated three million people. Dr. Yasmin explains how this history continues to shape contemporary politics, including emotional debates over justice and national identity.

Dr. Yasmin also addresses the selection of Muhammad Yunus as interim leader, describing how the Nobel Peace Prize winner's global credibility and pioneering work in microcredit made him an acceptable figure to unite a divided nation. She discusses both the promise and challenges of his leadership, including concerns about whether the interim government can remain truly neutral given that many of its coordinators are former student protesters.

Dr. Yasmin challenges Western misconceptions about Bangladesh, emphasizing the nation's resilience, innovation in climate adaptation, economic progress, and warm hospitality.

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In this insightful podcast episode, senior U.S. defense analyst Andrew Jensen joins hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to break down cognitive warfare—the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) key tactic for shaping perceptions, decisions, and narratives to achieve strategic goals without traditional military conflict. Leveraging his deep knowledge of Sino-Russian relations and information operations, Jensen explores how cognitive warfare targets human thought processes before, during, and after battles. Discover why the CCP invests heavily in these methods, drawing from its revolutionary history, and how they play out in the Indo-Pacific region, including the South China Sea, Taiwan, and beyond.

Jensen defines cognitive warfare as the strategic manipulation of how individuals, adversaries, and societies think and perceive reality. Unlike the cyber domain's focus on "down code" (technical infrastructure), cognitive warfare operates on the "up-code" of human cognition to preempt and control battlefields. The CCP deploys this through its "Three Warfares" doctrine: public opinion warfare (crafting narratives), psychological warfare (influencing morale and self-perception), and legal warfare (exploiting international rules for advantage). These tactics blur together, with roots in early CCP strategies to dominate discourse and erode opposition.

In South China Sea disputes, narrative warfare pushes CCP sovereignty claims like the nine-dash line to overshadow competing views, while psychological warfare boosts national pride through initiatives like tourist cruises to disputed islands. Legal warfare selectively ignores rulings, such as the 2016 arbitral decision, and enforces unilateral zones to confuse global norms and intimidate neighbors like the Philippines and Vietnam. Examples include one-sided environmental declarations in contested waters, which validate claims for Chinese audiences and heighten regional tensions.

Beijing masterfully targets societal fissures in open societies, amplifying issues like U.S. military bases in Okinawa or political divides in the Philippines and Taiwan via social media bots and fake accounts to create doubt without direct attribution. In Taiwan, after the overt backing of the pro-unification Kuomintang backfired and strengthened the independence-focused Democratic Progressive Party, the CCP pivoted to covert co-optation of figures like retired officers. In Southeast Asia, these efforts aim to erode U.S. and Quad influence, positioning China as the region's natural leader while aligning with domestic nationalist narratives.

Jensen recommends countering by injecting diverse perspectives into China through private media, culture, and soft power—outshining overt tools like Voice of America. For the U.S. and allies, building information resilience, avoiding adversarial mirror imaging, and cultivating critical thinking are essential to dismantle CCP narrative dominance.

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Episode 110 features Isaac Kardon, Senior Fellow for China Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of "China’s Law of the Sea: The New Rules of Maritime Order." Kardon joins hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to discuss how China uses domestic law, coast guard operations, and strategic ambiguity to reshape international maritime norms - especially in the South and East China Seas and the Yellow Sea.

China’s Approach to Maritime Law: Kardon explains that China’s participation in international treaties, such as UNCLOS, differs fundamentally from rule-of-law societies like the U.S. Rather than constraining itself, China uses treaties as instruments for political and strategic advantage, showing significant flexibility in interpretation and enforcement.

Global Impact of Indo-Pacific Maritime Order: The Indo-Pacific isn’t just a regional issue - what happens there affects global trade, technology supply chains, and the daily lives of people worldwide. The COVID pandemic and events like the Ever Given incident in the Suez Canal reveal the fragility of maritime order, making disruptions to the global order dangerous for prosperity and peace.

Frictions in the South China Sea: China’s ratification of UNCLOS presented challenges, notably the framework that limits China’s ability to claim “historic” zones like the “nine-dash line.” Despite arbitration rulings against Chinese claims, China responds in ways that undermine the effectiveness of international mechanisms, often using ambiguous claims and building capacity to assert control regardless of legal setbacks.

Law, Power, and Regional Responses: The episode highlights the contrast between the legalistic approaches of “cricket-playing nations” and China’s more instrumental use of law. Small states in the region rely on legal frameworks for protection, but China’s power allows it to bend or contest those rules.

Recent Developments: China has expanded its exclusion zone around Scarborough Shoal and used environmental pretext to assert control, demonstrating a pattern of using lawfare as a tool for broader strategic objectives.

Future Directions: The discussion covers the gridlock over the ASEAN-China Code of Conduct process, the decline of sentimentality about U.S. leadership in maritime law, and the general skepticism about international law’s ability to constrain powerful states. The hosts discuss the potential for the Indo-Pacific maritime disputes to become the setting for geopolitical drama, involving all facets from local fishermen and coast guards to great power competition.

Kardon argues that China’s lawfare bolsters its capabilities: strength and presence on the water matter just as much, if not more, than legal arguments. He describes the situation as “possession is nine-tenths of the law”—a reality that smaller states cannot match with mere legal claims.

Policy Takeaways: International law matters less when powerful states refuse to be constrained. China’s approach threatens regional cooperation and legal consistency.

The episode calls for listeners to recognize how Indo-Pacific maritime order shapes global stability, trade, and strategic realities - and provides both practical insights and a thought-provoking narrative, encouraging listeners to see Indo-Pacific maritime disputes not just as legal questions but as complex dramas involving power, law, and the future of global cooperation.

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In this episode, China scholar David C. Kang joins Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to discuss his recent Foreign Affairs article, “What China Doesn’t Want”, which argues that Beijing's geostrategic ambitions are much more limited than Washington's foreign policy establishment believes. Kang challenges the prevailing consensus that China seeks regional hegemony and global primacy, arguing instead that China's aims are narrower, more domestic, and more status quo than commonly assumed.​

A contrarian perspective on China's intentions: Kang and his co-authors analyzed approximately 12,000 Chinese articles and hundreds of Xi Jinping speeches, concluding that systematic analysis reveals China's priorities are internal stability and Taiwan, not global domination or territorial conquest of neighboring states.​

The debate over regional threat perceptions: While Kang argues that countries like Vietnam, South Korea, and Japan view China more pragmatically than Washington does, the hosts push back with examples of regional maritime tensions, arguing that frontline states see China as a more serious threat than Kang credits.​

Taiwan as the central flashpoint: All three agree China prefers a "boa constrictor" strategy of gradual pressure over military invasion, but disagree on how to interpret low-probability war risks and whether recent U.S.-Taiwan moves constitute status quo changes.​

Gray-zone success and maritime expansion: Powell argues China is the 21st century's most successful maritime expansionist power, achieving objectives through gray-zone and political warfare in the South China Sea, East China Sea, and Yellow Sea without conventional war.​

The South China Sea disputes: The conversation explores China's aggressive island-building and exclusion zones around Scarborough Shoal, with Kang acknowledging these as serious issues but distinguishing them from existential threats that would trigger regional wars.​

Regional balancing vs. living with China: Kang contends Southeast Asian nations focus on "how to live with China" rather than preparing for war or joining containment coalitions, while the hosts draw on their experiences in diplomatic posts to argue that these countries privately seek American presence as a critical counterbalance.​

Methodology matters: Kang defends his systematic analysis of Chinese rhetoric against accusations of cherry-picking, arguing that scholars must distinguish between propaganda, sincere statements, and observed behavior—and that critics often cherry-pick quotes themselves.​

War probabilities and deterrence: Even if China's intention to fight over Taiwan is low, the hosts emphasize that even 10-20% odds of catastrophic war demand serious deterrence planning and military readiness.​

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In Ep. 108, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso interview CNN Tokyo correspondent Hanako Montgomery about the historic election of Sanae Takaichi as Japan's first female prime minister, exploring her background, conservative policies, and the geopolitical challenges she faces amid rising regional tensions and domestic economic woes. The discussion highlights Takaichi's rise: how she broke through Japan's traditional patriarchal barriers, and how she will navigate its complex domestic politics and the rapidly changing Indo-Pacific geostrategic picture.

Sanae Takaichi, formerly the economic security minister, emerged as Japan's fourth prime minister since Shinzo Abe's 2020 departure, marking a milestone as the country's first woman in the role despite Japan's low G7 ranking in gender parity. Unlike many politicians who come from dynasties, her background includes a TV anchor career in the mid-1990s, where she discussed politics and society, while her parents were a police officer and a car company worker. Known for her colorful personality (including a love for motorcycles and heavy metal music), she is a self-described workaholic and Abe protégé, advocating conservative stances like revising Japan's pacifist constitution, boosting defense spending to 2% of GDP, and opposing same-sex marriage.

Takaichi's election comes during a period of turmoil for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which lost its parliamentary majority in recent elections amid scandals like unreported slush funds and ties to controversial groups linked to Abe's assassin. The long-dominant LDP now relies on a new coalition, creating an identity crisis between its conservative roots and younger reformers. Her "Sanaenomics"--looser fiscal policies, increased government spending, and inflation relief via billions in subsidies for household items--differs from Abenomics but faces hurdles from her coalition's fiscally conservative views and Japan's demographic crisis, including low birth rates and immigration crackdowns. Markets reacted positively with the Nikkei 225 hitting records post-election, but the yen also weakened, signaling investor excitement tempered by fiscal risks.

Takaichi inherits a fraught Indo-Pacific landscape, with her hawkish views on China, including criticisms of its militarization, espionage by Chinese residents, and even ugly tourist behavior, drawing Beijing's ire via state media warnings that Japan is at a "crossroads." Her April Taiwan visit, pushing defense and economic ties without U.S. centrality, has heightened tensions, though economic interdependence may prompt pragmatic diplomacy during upcoming APEC and ASEAN meetings.

Takaichi previously vowed female representation in her cabinet but appointed only two women, emphasizing qualifications over gender in a male-dominated field, surprising some observers. Comparisons to Margaret Thatcher abound for her symbolic strength as a first female leader; however, there are policy differences between the two.

Takaichi's tenure could reshape Japan's role amid uncertainties about U.S. commitment and China's assertiveness in areas such as the Senkaku Islands, Taiwan, and the South China Sea, with public support growing for constitutional revision and defense hikes due to perceived threats. Her success hinges on economic delivery--tackling inflation and wages--while balancing alliances.

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