Jim and Ray welcome Critical Minerals Institute Co-chair Melissa Sanderson to explain how allowing China to dominate the critical minerals and rare earths industries creates vulnerabilities for the United States and its allies.

Mel explains how China has come to control the supply chain for materials fundamental to national defense, technological development and economic security, and why it has thrived while other countries have languished in this industry.

Mel explains the steps the United States has taken to secure its critical minerals mining and processing sectors, but also the continuing challenges it faces in competing with China’s discounted prices and industrial policies. She considers the use of tariffs and global partnerships as proposed solutions for addressing the problem.

Ultimately, Mel argues that the U.S. must aggressively invest in domestic mining and processing to reduce its reliance on geopolitical adversaries.

Jim and Ray welcome Thailand’s renowned scholar and journalist Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak to help them understand why the past quarter century has seen Thailand’s politics in a state of near-constant turmoil, and what the prospects are for the years ahead.

Dr. Thitinan explains how the conservative forces of Thailand’s monarchy, judiciary and military have used their institutional power to sideline repeated electoral victories by populist and reformist groups. He discusses how the one-time outsider Thaksin Shinawatra has overcome being deposed by military coup to return to power behind the scenes with the election of his daughter Paetongtarn as prime minister.

He also unpacks Thailand’s political youth movement, and how it actually won the most votes in the last election but was prevented from taking power by an alliance of the country’s traditional powers and Thaksin. He explains how this young party–now called the People’s Party–remains a potent force.

Thailand’s turmoil has led to economic stagnation as foreign investment has shied away from the uncertainty of its politics, but Dr. Thitinan believes stability in the medium term should usher in a period of growth.

Geopolitically, Thailand has been among America’s least reliable allies, he contends, because its anti-democratic forces have driven it in the direction of more autocratic regimes like China’s. Meanwhile, the Thai government faces pressure from Beijing to send Uyghur refugees back to China, which is opposed by the U.S.

Thailand is also dealing with threats to its security from across the border, where Myanmar’s civil war threatens to spill over.

Dr. Thitinan is a professor of international relations and international political economy at Bangkok-based Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Political Science and a senior fellow at its Institute of Security and International Studies. He is also a senior advisor with our podcast’s sponsor, BowerGroupAsia.

Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power.

Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

"It's my belief that the incoming administration has chosen USAID...to curb-stomp it to death as a way to send a message to the rest of the federal bureaucracy." -- Michael Schiffer

As Washington DC is in turmoil over the drastic changes to the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), Jim and Ray welcome its former Asia Bureau Assistant Administrator Michael Schiffer to explain what exactly USAID does and the potential impacts of these changes.

Michael argues that USAID is not just a charity organization but plays a crucial role in supporting U.S. foreign policy. Established in 1961 during the height of the Cold War, he explains that USAID has long been considered essential for America’s national security.

Against charges that USAID’s budget lacks oversight, Michael describes the agency’s bipartisan congressional oversight process. He also explains how the once fully independent agency was legislatively rolled into the State Department in the late 1990s, though still with some degree of operational autonomy.

While agreeing that a thoughtful review of the USAID structure and budget is called for, he contends that the current pause in USAID funding creates a vacuum for other nations–particularly China–to exploit by moving quickly to backfill the gaps in support left by American absence. This allows Beijing to say that America is an unreliable partner.

Follow Michael Schiffer at his page at Justsecurity.

Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power.

Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Ray and Jim welcome Justin Bassi, former Australian National Security Advisor and current Director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI). Justin explains what the “Quad” grouping between the U.S., Australia, Japan and India means for Indo-Pacific security, stability and prosperity–on issues from supply chain resiliency, cyber security and maritime security.

Justin makes the case that given the threat from China, the Quad needs to mature so as to overtly include security as a key component of its remit, despite India’s status as a non-aligned nation. He also believes that developing a range of other minilateral groupings like the so-called “Squad” (U.S.-Japan-Australia-Philippines) are crucial.

Our guest addresses the tension between the Quad and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which desires “centrality” in Indo-Pacific affairs, and explains why the Quad can provide important alternatives to countering China’s growing influence across the region.

Justin turns to the U.S.-Australia alliance, and how Canberra’s approach to China has garnered respect in Washington. He delves into how the countries need to work together on issues such as defense and cyber security.

Follow Justin at the ASPI web site or on X.

Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power.

Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Retired Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan–author of three recent books on the future of warfare–joins our hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to discuss how autonomous weapons (drones) are challenging our military assumptions, and their implications for Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific.

Mick draws lessons from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and asserts that drones don’t necessarily mean the obsolescence of current inventories of manned weapon systems, but will require significant cultural and organizational changes to integrate them into our strategies, tactics and force structure.

Mick considers the U.S. “Replicator” project to field drones at high volume, and the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command’s notion of turning the Taiwan Strait into a drone “hellscape” for any potential invasion. He also talks about how developing countries can leverage inexpensive drone technology to level the playing field against larger aggressors.

If you enjoyed this conversation, don’t forget to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts so you won’t miss an episode! Your subscription also helps us reach more people on these important Indo-Pacific topics.

You can also follow Mick Ryan’s substack, Futura Doctrina, a conversation about technology, ideas, people and their convergence in contemporary war and competition. Also covering issues related to the war in Ukraine, Chinese aggression against Taiwan and Indo-Pacific defence.

Our podcast is produced by IEJ Media, sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power.

Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

RAND’s senior behavioral scientist Todd Helmus joins Jim Carouso and Ray Powell to explain how China exploits the maritime “gray zone” to pursue its aggressive and expansionist policies without triggering open conflict.

They examine how China’s competitors have seen their sovereignty eroded and their influence wane by remaining passive in the face of gray-zone aggression. They discuss the crucial role of assertive transparency and affirmative engagement in illuminating these activities in order to counter them, while also building resiliency and international support against them.

Turning their attention to the South China Sea, they discuss how China has turned its coast guard into a large and highly capable paramilitary force, and has paired it with its maritime militia to pressure the Philippines into surrendering its own maritime rights. Meanwhile, the Philippines’ southeast Asian neighbors’ responses have ranged from muted to outwardly critical of Manila due to their fear of economic retaliation from Beijing.

They conclude by talking about how the U.S. and its allies need to develop comprehensive strategies to counter China’s gray-zone campaign before it achieves its expansionist objectives.

Read RAND’s work on gray-zone responses:

• Understanding and Countering China's Maritime Gray Zone Operations
• How the United States Can Support Allied and Partner Efforts to Counter China in the Gray Zone

Produced by IEJ Media ), sharing news that matters on statecraft & instruments of national power.

Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Ray and Jim welcome back one of their most popular guests, retired Rear Admiral Mike Studeman, to discuss his recent assertion that Beijing’s malign influence operations–which extend from hacking computer networks to undermining faith in institutions to altering the media landscape–have reached the point of constituting a ‘silent invasion’ of the U.S. homeland.

Mike discusses his documented concerns about the extraordinary case of Elon Musk, America’s most important industrialist whose core businesses also have deep dependencies on Beijing’s largesse, and who has also now become a major political figure. Mike answers questions about why he has raised alarms about Musk as being “compromised and co-opted” by America’s most powerful adversary.

Mike argues that America needs leaders who can lead a national conversation and “connect the dots” for the public so that Americans can understand the pervasive nature of the threat.

Ray and Jim welcome Colonel Rich Butler and Dr. Sheena Greitens to help us understand the readiness of China’s military for combat operations, and what that means for global security. They explain the contingencies the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is preparing for, from a cross-strait invasion of Taiwan to a South China Sea confrontation, and what lessons the PLA has learned from Russia’s conflict with Ukraine.

Colonel Butler and Dr. Greitens also discuss how China uses the PLA and non-traditional forces like the People’s Armed Police as coercive tools against its neighbors. They also weigh the sheer weight of China’s security forces against its blind spots—political control, corruption and inexperience in combat operations. They also consider China’s ongoing political and military corruption purges—and their impact on combat readiness.

They explain how China prioritizes the conquest of Taiwan for achieving its “national rejuvenation”, and what role coercion plays in achieving those goals, even while planning for the potential of a protracted conflict against the U.S. and implementing non-traditional security programs across the Indo-Pacific region.

Colonel Butler and Dr. Greitens unpack the problems the PLA faces in a cross-strait invasion scenario, and what problems a military blockade of the island might present. They talk through the military and economic challenges Taiwan faces, both in terms of food and energy security.