Summary:

In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the rising cost of eggs and other factors contributing to inflation stickiness. They also discuss the stock market flirting with an all-time high, when to expect cuts from the Fed, and much more!

Key Takeaways:

• The S&P 500 is near an all-time high despite economic concerns.
• Inflation remains a hot topic, with rising egg prices making headlines.
• Momentum is driving market performance, with all 11 S&P sectors in positive territory.
• Housing, auto insurance, and used cars are the primary contributors to inflation stickiness.
• The Fed remains in a cutting bias, but rate cuts may not happen until midyear.
• Trade and tariff policies have the potential for long-term market impacts.
• The possibility of a government shutdown is looming, adding another layer of uncertainty.
• Retail sales took a surprising hit, but that may be due to recent extreme weather and seasonality.

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Relevant Hashtags:

#StockMarket #Investing #Inflation #InterestRates #MarketTrends #FinancePodcast #Eggflation #FederalReserve #Tariffs #PersonalFinance #CarsonGroup

Summary:
In this episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss the biggest economic and market concerns beyond tariffs. They dive into historical market indicators, the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates, employment trends, and whether the third year of a bull market signals trouble. The duo also touches on global markets, the effects of potential retaliatory tariffs, and the latest employment data revisions.

Key Takeaways:

· Tariff Uncertainty: New tariffs on steel and aluminum imports could lead to retaliatory measures from Europe and other trade partners.

· Market Indicators: The December low indicator flashed a warning, though broader market trends remain resilient.

· Federal Reserve & Interest Rates: The Fed is taking a cautious approach, possibly delaying rate cuts until later in the year or even 2026.

· Employment Trends: Payroll revisions lowered job growth estimates, but productivity gains remain a silver lining.

· Market Breadth & Leadership Shift: Large-cap tech stocks show signs of lagging, while broader market participation remains mixed.

· Historical Trends: Year three of a bull market tends to be weaker, averaging only a 2% gain.

· Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan:

· LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

· X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu:

· LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

· X: Sonu Varghese

Relevant Hashtags:
#StockMarket #Investing #Economy #Tariffs #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Finance #MarketTrends #WealthManagement #Trading #EconomicOutlook

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dive into the latest tariff drama, analyzing its potential impact on the economy, markets, and inflation. They explore past trade wars, the Fed’s stance on inflation uncertainty, and how fiscal policy—especially potential tax cuts—could shape 2025. Plus, they discuss the January market rally, historical trends for February, and why volatility is a necessary part of investing.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• Tariffs create uncertainty, but history shows markets adapt.
• The Fed’s rate cut timeline may be delayed due to inflation concerns.
• Fiscal policy could offset the impact of tariffs, especially with potential tax cuts.
• Despite uncertainty, broadening market trends and strong corporate earnings remain positive.
• February has historically been weak post-election, but the long-term outlook remains bullish.

Resources:

● Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

● LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

● X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

● LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

● X: Sonu Varghese

Publishing Tags: #FinancialMarkets #Investing #StockMarket #Economy #Tariffs #TradeWar #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MarketTrends #InvestmentStrategy #GlobalEconomy #StockMarketAnalysis #EconomicPolicy #PersonalFinance #FinancialPlanning #InvestorEducation #MarketVolatility #Trading #WealthManagement #FinancePodcast