Superforecasting
The Art and Science of Prediction
Échec de l'ajout au panier.
Échec de l'ajout à la liste d'envies.
Échec de la suppression de la liste d’envies.
Échec du suivi du balado
Ne plus suivre le balado a échoué
0,99 $/mois pendant vos 3 premiers mois
Acheter pour 5,99 $
-
Narrateur(s):
-
Joel Richards
-
Auteur(s):
-
Philip Tetlock
-
Dan Gardner
À propos de cet audio
From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions.
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people - including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer - who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters".
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future - whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life - and is destined to become a modern classic.
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying reference material will be available in your My Library section along with the audio.
©2015 Philip Tetlock Consulting, Inc., and Connaught Street, Inc. (P)2015 Audible, Inc.Vous pourriez aussi aimer...
-
Genesis
- Artificial Intelligence, Hope, and the Human Spirit
- Auteur(s): Henry A. Kissinger, Eric Schmidt, Craig Mundie, Autres
- Narrateur(s): Byron Wagner
- Durée: 6 h et 3 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global2
-
Performance2
-
Histoire2
As Artificial Intelligence (AI) becomes more dynamic and ubiquitous, it is dramatically empowering people in all walks of life while also giving rise to urgent questions about the future of humanity—a historic challenge whose contours and consequences are revealed by three eminent thinkers in...
-
-
Power, morality and the Future of Ai
- Écrit par Matthew le 2025-10-02
Auteur(s): Henry A. Kissinger, Autres
-
Objections
- The Ultimate Guide for Mastering the Art and Science of Getting past No
- Auteur(s): Jeb Blount, Mark Hunter - foreword by
- Narrateur(s): Jeb Blount
- Durée: 5 h et 53 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global124
-
Performance90
-
Histoire88
Every salesperson must endure many NOs in order to get to YES. Objections don't care or consider: who you are, what you sell, how you sell, or if you are new to sales or a veteran. For as long as salespeople have been asking buyers to make commitments, buyers have been throwing out objections. And, for as long as buyers have been saying no, salespeople have yearned for the secrets to getting past those NOs. Objections is a comprehensive and contemporary guide that engages your heart and mind.
-
-
practical and honest
- Écrit par Mike le 2020-05-10
Auteur(s): Jeb Blount, Autres
-
Palo Alto
- A History of California, Capitalism, and the World
- Auteur(s): Malcolm Harris
- Narrateur(s): Patrick Harrison
- Durée: 28 h et 20 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global4
-
Performance4
-
Histoire4
The history of Silicon Valley, from railroads to microchips, is an “extraordinary” story of disruption and destruction, told for the first time in this comprehensive, jaw-dropping narrative (Greg Grandin, Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The End of the Myth). Palo Alto’s weather is...
-
-
Fantastic
- Écrit par Carl G le 2023-06-26
Auteur(s): Malcolm Harris
-
Tell Yourself a Better Lie
- Use the Power of Rapid Transformational Therapy to Edit Your Story and Rewrite Your Life.
- Auteur(s): Marisa Peer
- Narrateur(s): Carlyss Peer
- Durée: 8 h et 36 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global31
-
Performance27
-
Histoire27
Our lives are defined by the stories we tell ourselves, but those stories aren't always true. Narratives that are based on outdated or irrelevant information can run (or ruin) our lives for years, even if those stories are wildly different from the objective reality that formed them.
-
-
Profound, Insightful, Amazing.
- Écrit par Mike le 2022-01-13
Auteur(s): Marisa Peer
-
Hook Point
- How to Stand Out in a 3-Second World
- Auteur(s): Brendan Kane
- Narrateur(s): Brendan Kane
- Durée: 8 h et 11 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global56
-
Performance43
-
Histoire43
Brendan Kane, a thinker and strategist who’s built platforms for celebrities like Taylor Swift and Rhianna and worked with Fortune 500 companies like Paramount and Viacom, has mastered the art of standing out. In Hook Point: How to Stand Out in a 3-Second World, he reveals the power of hook points—a communication tool that helps marketers package their messages in a succinct, attention-grabbing way that leads to better opportunities both online and off. Whatever you’re promoting, this book is the essential guide for making it in our three-second world.
-
-
Great conent, hate the continuou sales
- Écrit par Utilisateur anonyme le 2021-03-05
Auteur(s): Brendan Kane
-
Team Topologies: Organizing Business and Technology Teams for Fast Flow
- Auteur(s): Matthew Skelton, Manuel Pais
- Narrateur(s): Edward Bauer
- Durée: 6 h et 31 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global35
-
Performance26
-
Histoire26
Team Topologies is a practical, step-by-step, adaptive model for organizational design and team interaction based on four fundamental team types and three team interaction patterns. It is a model that treats teams as the fundamental means of delivery, where team structures and communication pathways are able to evolve with technological and organizational maturity. In Team Topologies, IT consultants Matthew Skelton and Manuel Pais share secrets of successful team patterns and interactions to help listeners choose and evolve the right team patterns for their organization.
-
-
Extremely helpful vision of engineering teams
- Écrit par Pablo de Oliveira Castro le 2021-08-16
Auteur(s): Matthew Skelton, Autres
-
Genesis
- Artificial Intelligence, Hope, and the Human Spirit
- Auteur(s): Henry A. Kissinger, Eric Schmidt, Craig Mundie, Autres
- Narrateur(s): Byron Wagner
- Durée: 6 h et 3 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global2
-
Performance2
-
Histoire2
As Artificial Intelligence (AI) becomes more dynamic and ubiquitous, it is dramatically empowering people in all walks of life while also giving rise to urgent questions about the future of humanity—a historic challenge whose contours and consequences are revealed by three eminent thinkers in...
-
-
Power, morality and the Future of Ai
- Écrit par Matthew le 2025-10-02
Auteur(s): Henry A. Kissinger, Autres
-
Objections
- The Ultimate Guide for Mastering the Art and Science of Getting past No
- Auteur(s): Jeb Blount, Mark Hunter - foreword by
- Narrateur(s): Jeb Blount
- Durée: 5 h et 53 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global124
-
Performance90
-
Histoire88
Every salesperson must endure many NOs in order to get to YES. Objections don't care or consider: who you are, what you sell, how you sell, or if you are new to sales or a veteran. For as long as salespeople have been asking buyers to make commitments, buyers have been throwing out objections. And, for as long as buyers have been saying no, salespeople have yearned for the secrets to getting past those NOs. Objections is a comprehensive and contemporary guide that engages your heart and mind.
-
-
practical and honest
- Écrit par Mike le 2020-05-10
Auteur(s): Jeb Blount, Autres
-
Palo Alto
- A History of California, Capitalism, and the World
- Auteur(s): Malcolm Harris
- Narrateur(s): Patrick Harrison
- Durée: 28 h et 20 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global4
-
Performance4
-
Histoire4
The history of Silicon Valley, from railroads to microchips, is an “extraordinary” story of disruption and destruction, told for the first time in this comprehensive, jaw-dropping narrative (Greg Grandin, Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The End of the Myth). Palo Alto’s weather is...
-
-
Fantastic
- Écrit par Carl G le 2023-06-26
Auteur(s): Malcolm Harris
-
Tell Yourself a Better Lie
- Use the Power of Rapid Transformational Therapy to Edit Your Story and Rewrite Your Life.
- Auteur(s): Marisa Peer
- Narrateur(s): Carlyss Peer
- Durée: 8 h et 36 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global31
-
Performance27
-
Histoire27
Our lives are defined by the stories we tell ourselves, but those stories aren't always true. Narratives that are based on outdated or irrelevant information can run (or ruin) our lives for years, even if those stories are wildly different from the objective reality that formed them.
-
-
Profound, Insightful, Amazing.
- Écrit par Mike le 2022-01-13
Auteur(s): Marisa Peer
-
Hook Point
- How to Stand Out in a 3-Second World
- Auteur(s): Brendan Kane
- Narrateur(s): Brendan Kane
- Durée: 8 h et 11 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global56
-
Performance43
-
Histoire43
Brendan Kane, a thinker and strategist who’s built platforms for celebrities like Taylor Swift and Rhianna and worked with Fortune 500 companies like Paramount and Viacom, has mastered the art of standing out. In Hook Point: How to Stand Out in a 3-Second World, he reveals the power of hook points—a communication tool that helps marketers package their messages in a succinct, attention-grabbing way that leads to better opportunities both online and off. Whatever you’re promoting, this book is the essential guide for making it in our three-second world.
-
-
Great conent, hate the continuou sales
- Écrit par Utilisateur anonyme le 2021-03-05
Auteur(s): Brendan Kane
-
Team Topologies: Organizing Business and Technology Teams for Fast Flow
- Auteur(s): Matthew Skelton, Manuel Pais
- Narrateur(s): Edward Bauer
- Durée: 6 h et 31 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global35
-
Performance26
-
Histoire26
Team Topologies is a practical, step-by-step, adaptive model for organizational design and team interaction based on four fundamental team types and three team interaction patterns. It is a model that treats teams as the fundamental means of delivery, where team structures and communication pathways are able to evolve with technological and organizational maturity. In Team Topologies, IT consultants Matthew Skelton and Manuel Pais share secrets of successful team patterns and interactions to help listeners choose and evolve the right team patterns for their organization.
-
-
Extremely helpful vision of engineering teams
- Écrit par Pablo de Oliveira Castro le 2021-08-16
Auteur(s): Matthew Skelton, Autres
-
Math Without Numbers
- Auteur(s): Milo Beckman
- Narrateur(s): Soneela Nankani
- Durée: 3 h et 53 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global4
-
Performance3
-
Histoire3
An audio tour of the structures and patterns we call "math" This is an audiobook about math, but it contains no numbers. Math Without Numbers is a vivid, conversational, and wholly original guide to the three main branches of abstract math—topology, analysis, and algebra—which turn out to be...
-
-
A wonderful book about everything
- Écrit par Efik le 2025-01-05
Auteur(s): Milo Beckman
-
Gaslighting
- Recognize Manipulative and Emotionally Abusive People -- and Break Free
- Auteur(s): Stephanie Moulton Sarkis PhD PhD
- Narrateur(s): Suehyla El-Attar, Stephanie Moulton Sarkis PhD PhD
- Durée: 8 h et 32 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global26
-
Performance22
-
Histoire22
A mental health expert sheds light on "gaslighting"--the manipulative technique used by sociopaths, narcissists, and others--offering practical strategies to cope and break free. He's the charmer -- the witty, confident, but overly controlling date. She's the woman on your team who always...
-
-
I'm torn
- Écrit par Catharine le 2023-09-21
Auteur(s): Stephanie Moulton Sarkis PhD PhD
-
The Pragmatic Programmer: 20th Anniversary Edition, 2nd Edition
- Your Journey to Mastery
- Auteur(s): David Thomas, Andrew Hunt
- Narrateur(s): Anna Katarina
- Durée: 9 h et 55 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global111
-
Performance89
-
Histoire88
Dave Thomas and Andy Hunt wrote the first edition of this influential book in 1999 to help their clients create better software and rediscover the joy of coding. These lessons have helped a generation of programmers examine the very essence of software development. Now, 20 years later, this new edition re-examines what it means to be a modern programmer. Topics range from personal responsibility and career development to architectural techniques for keeping your code flexible and easy to adapt and reuse.
-
-
Great technical book, needs accompanying diagrams
- Écrit par Christine Y. le 2020-04-16
Auteur(s): David Thomas, Autres
-
The Crowd - A Study of the Popular Mind
- Auteur(s): Gustave Le Bon
- Narrateur(s): John Clickman
- Durée: 6 h et 5 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global6
-
Performance5
-
Histoire5
In The Crowd - A Study of the Popular Mind, social theorist Gustave Le Bon gives historical insight into the political thinking of his era while offering timeless social commentary. Le Bon challenges the listener to contemplate how individual ideas change - often to a destructive end - when employed in a setting of groupthink. As technology and communications innovations make group formation easy and accessible for better or for worse, this book's message is certainly one that will not be lost in the crowd.
-
-
Sexist
- Écrit par Donna Trudeau le 2025-09-24
Auteur(s): Gustave Le Bon
-
Oversubscribed
- How to Get People Lined Up to Do Business with You (2nd Edition)
- Auteur(s): Daniel Priestley
- Narrateur(s): Daniel Priestley
- Durée: 6 h et 33 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global22
-
Performance17
-
Histoire17
Oversubscribed is the guide to transforming your business into one which customers fight over! Author Daniel Priestley, a successful entrepreneur who has built and sold businesses around the world, shares proven, real-world methods that will not only grab customers’ attention, but will also have them lining up to buy from you. This invaluable guide will teach you how to drive demand for your products or services far beyond supply and will dramatically increase the success of your business.
-
-
Excellent
- Écrit par D W le 2024-12-01
Auteur(s): Daniel Priestley
-
The Fabric of Reality
- The Science of Parallel Universes - and Its Implications
- Auteur(s): David Deutsch
- Narrateur(s): Walter Dixon
- Durée: 14 h et 26 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global21
-
Performance17
-
Histoire16
Author of the New York Times best seller The Beginning of Infinity, David Deutsch, explores the four most fundamental strands of human knowledge: quantum physics, and the theories of knowledge, computation, and evolution - and their unexpected connections. Taken together, these four strands reveal a deeply integrated, rational, and optimistic worldview. It describes a unified fabric of reality that is objective and comprehensible, in which human action and thought are central.
-
-
Shadow Photons, Unicorns: Lost Art of Criticism
- Écrit par Ses le 2025-10-01
Auteur(s): David Deutsch
-
Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Daily Life
- Auteur(s): Jason M. Satterfield, The Great Courses
- Narrateur(s): Professor Jason M. Satterfield
- Durée: 12 h et 24 min
- Production originale
-
Au global31
-
Performance26
-
Histoire26
In the 24 compelling half-hour lectures of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Daily Life, Professor Jason Satterfield will help you build your cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) toolbox, giving you the skills you need to change those stories that hold you back and that keep you from experiencing your fullest life possible.
-
-
Everyone in the world needs to read this
- Écrit par Amazon Customer le 2022-12-11
Auteur(s): Jason M. Satterfield, Autres
-
The Science of Attraction
- Flirting, Sex, and How to Engineer Chemistry and Love
- Auteur(s): Patrick King
- Narrateur(s): Joe Hempel
- Durée: 3 h et 17 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global6
-
Performance4
-
Histoire4
The Science of Attraction is an in-depth look at human attraction and what draws people together. It dives into peer-reviewed research, combined with the insightful and straightforward observations of a renowned dating coach. Patrick King is an internationally best-selling author and acclaimed speaker and coach. Together, this book is the ultimate guide to inform, diagnose, and recommend highly actionable steps to take your dating life to the next level.
Auteur(s): Patrick King
-
Nudge: The Final Edition
- Improving Decisions About Money, Health, and the Environment
- Auteur(s): Richard H. Thaler, Cass R. Sunstein
- Narrateur(s): Sean Pratt
- Durée: 11 h et 33 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global86
-
Performance75
-
Histoire75
Since the original publication of Nudge more than a decade ago, the title has entered the vocabulary of businesspeople, policy makers, engaged citizens, and consumers everywhere. The book has given rise to more than 200 "nudge units" in governments around the world and countless groups of behavioral scientists in every part of the economy. It has taught us how to use thoughtful "choice architecture" - a concept the authors invented - to help us make better decisions for ourselves, our families, and our society.
-
-
Nudge for Good!
- Écrit par Rebecca le 2023-07-23
Auteur(s): Richard H. Thaler, Autres
-
Key Person of Influence
- The Five-Step Method to Become One of the Most Highly Valued and Highly Paid People in Your Industry
- Auteur(s): Daniel Priestley
- Narrateur(s): Michael Maloney
- Durée: 4 h et 50 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global29
-
Performance24
-
Histoire24
Every industry revolves around Key People of Influence. Their names come up in conversation. They attract opportunities. They earn more money. Many people think it takes decades of hard work, academic qualifications and a generous measure of good luck to become a Key Person of Influence. This audiobook shows you that there is a five-step strategy for fast-tracking your way to the inner circle of the industry you love. Your ability to succeed depends on your ability to influence. Start now by listening to this audiobook.
-
-
powerful!
- Écrit par Amazon Customer le 2024-06-29
Auteur(s): Daniel Priestley
-
The Great Mental Models
- General Thinking Concepts
- Auteur(s): Shane Parrish
- Narrateur(s): Shane Parrish
- Durée: 3 h et 23 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global300
-
Performance246
-
Histoire243
The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts is the first book in The Great Mental Models series designed to upgrade your thinking with the best, most useful and powerful tools so you always have the right one on hand. This volume details nine of the most versatile all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making, your productivity, and how clearly you see the world.
-
-
Great information let down by the narration
- Écrit par Jason le 2019-04-27
Auteur(s): Shane Parrish
-
The Soul of A New Machine
- Auteur(s): Tracy Kidder
- Narrateur(s): Ben Sullivan
- Durée: 9 h et 3 min
- Version intégrale
-
Au global28
-
Performance24
-
Histoire25
Tracy Kidder's "riveting" (Washington Post) story of one company's efforts to bring a new microcomputer to market won both the Pulitzer Prize and the National Book Award and has become essential reading for understanding the history of the American tech industry. Computers have changed since...
-
-
interesting story
- Écrit par Hayden barker le 2018-05-24
Auteur(s): Tracy Kidder
Overall, somewhat disappointing
Un problème est survenu. Veuillez réessayer dans quelques minutes.
loved it
Un problème est survenu. Veuillez réessayer dans quelques minutes.